Golden Prospect Precious... Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 06/1/2022 15:43

Thank you Pap I pay for access to his site .
He covers a number of companies in detail and always comments whether the news is
Good or bad.

Unfortunately I started following him after the glory year of 2020 so am well underwater..

[papillon] 06/1/2022 15:36

Many thanks for posting the views of Jordan Roy Byrne, atlantic57. Much appreciated.
I respect his views and particularly liked his last comment, "I think we could see Gold retest its high before 2023."

[atlantic57] 06/1/2022 08:40

Furthermore, gold stocks were unable to surpass the 50-day moving average in recent days and Wednesday’s selloff could mark the start of the next leg down. Also, given the history of legs to the downside during this 17-month correction, there is a strong risk of a gap down within the next few days.

I’m buying at the open, a 20% position in JDST (2x short GDXJ). This is a hedge only for those who are heavily invested, but have the cash to execute this buy. The model portfolio is roughly 35% in cash.
GDXJ closed at $40.32. I expect more downside and that only changes if we see GDXJ close above $42.00 once or twice. Coming into the week, 78% of GDXJ stocks were trading above the 20-day moving average and 37% were above the 50-day moving average. So in a short-term sense they are not oversold yet. It’s when those indicators get to single digits that we should consider taking profits on JDST.
Gold is trading at $1802 as I pen this. That weekly support at $1750 could be a trap door, if broken. The 40-month moving average, which has been an excellent trend indicator over the last 35 years, is at $1635 and should hit $1660 into March.

The positive in all this is the start of Fed rate hikes has coincided with some of the most significant Gold bottoms over the last 50 years (1976, 1999, 2016), and over the last three rate hike cycles, Gold rebounded an average of 27%. Hence, if the Fed has to pause its hikes, I think we could see Gold retest its high before 2023.


-Jordan

[podgyted] 24/12/2021 13:31

Likewise Fordtin

[stevieweebie2] 24/12/2021 13:17

Hice one Ford, you too.

[fordtin] 24/12/2021 12:43

Cheers Ted.

Hope you have a very happy Christmas and wishing all gold bugs a terrific New Year!

November 2021
Investment Commentary

"Over the month, a more supportive backdrop from stubbornly high inflation was offset by more hawkish
Fed commentary and some US dollar strength. As a result, gold slipped 1.5% during November, while
more volatile silver ended the month 4.5% lower. The Fund NAV declined around 4.5% versus modest
sterling gains registered by the Gold Bugs Index and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Fortuna Silver’s
announcement that the renewal of a mining permit in Mexico will take longer to negotiate, weighed on
the share price and offset good contributions from Pretium, which received a cash and share takeover
offer from Newcrest at a 30% premium to its prior close, together with Firefinch and gold producer
Emerald Resources, which continues to successfully ramp-up production helped by positive grade
reconciliation.
Debate on the extent to which inflation proves transitory continues, with data showing it to be more
persistent than initially expected by many central banks. In Europe, the ECB stuck to its “transitory”
message, though suggested inflationary pressures will ease in 2023, an extended period. There are clear
pressures from Chinese heavy industry closures and increased soft commodity input costs, as higher
year-on-year natural gas prices feed through to fertiliser costs. Such pressures may continue well into
2022. Commodities remain one of the few safe havens to protect against an extended period of inflation.
In the US, CPI jumped to 6.2% in October, the highest level in three decades."

[podgyted] 24/12/2021 08:41

Hi Fordtin

November sheet is out.

New one - Firefinch on ASX - its had a good run this year.

[king_baller] 22/12/2021 09:13

Also, on his grant Williams podcast last year (also worth a listen) I remember felix describing gold miners as as a call option on gold. So make your bets now!

[king_baller] 21/12/2021 20:35

Excellent new podcast with Felix Zulauf ‘forward guidance: Felix Zulauf’s Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond’. Definitely worth a few listens given his long term track record. He talks about all assets and markets.

Re: gold he holds a sizeable amount of physical gold long term, and trades around his position dependent on his stance on gold. Having been bearish gold since October 2020, he is looking to go long gold (and double his total gold position) in the first quarter of 2022 with gold futures on any weakness to mid 1700s.

[king_baller] 20/12/2021 19:37

Gdx and gdxj relatively strong today. Lower growth expectations, treasury yields likely to stay low, high (but disinflating) inflation prints over the next few months, collapsing oil price helpful for miners. Quite a lot to be bullish about re gold miners right now. Buy GPM now, and sell when GPM’s 20% discount has disappeared (as it had in July 2020) - an excellent sentiment checker.

[papillon] 19/12/2021 15:29

I did read an article by another trader that Thursday & Friday's rise was possibly due to short covering. We shall see.

[fordtin] 19/12/2021 13:40

Portfolio Statement
 
 
 




As at 30 June 2021
 
 
 


 
Holding
Fair Value
% of Total


Australia
 
 
 


West African Resources
8,568,700
£4,540,250
9.72


Calidus Resources
12,530,232
£3,166,448
6.78


Westgold Resources
1,853,457
£1,873,509
4.01


Emerald Resources
3,629,543
£1,745,642
3.74


Firefinch
4,930,085
£1,044,911
2.24


Ora Banda Mining
10,686,027
£871,099
1.87


Horizon Minerals
13,285,720
£866,416
1.86


Red 5 Ltd
6,917,918
£695,516
1.49


Silver Lake Resources
686,715
£617,639
1.32


Oklo Resources
5,928,751
£354,418
0.76


Castile Resources
2,997,974
£333,997
0.72


Rox Resources
1,527,777
£332,109
0.71


Metals X
2,317,805
£270,817
0.58


Antipa Minerals
10,714,286
£238,730
0.51


S2 Resources
328,898
£22,342
0.05


Amani Gold
17,026,284
£9,252
0.02


Lachlan Star
120,000
£3,587
0.01


 
 
£16,986,682
36.39


Canada
 
 
 


Roxgold
2,623,308
£2,898,344
6.21


Fortuna Silver Mines
549,563
£2,200,630
4.71


Adventus Mining
3,402,790
£2,088,639
4.47


Calibre Mining
2,171,901
£2,082,202
4.46


Silvercrest Metals
322,000
£2,015,971
4.32


Oceanagold
1,357,143
£1,848,504
3.96


Mag Silver
119,000
£1,801,713
3.86


Palladium One Mining Inc
9,803,581
£1,604,655
3.44


Galiano Gold
1,631,089
£1,239,538
2.66


Aurcana Sliver Corp
2,500,000
£1,227,604
2.63


Integra Resources
555,146
£1,168,285
2.5


Agnico Eagle Mines
25,000
£1,093,152
2.34


Pretium Resources
150,000
£1,033,818
2.21


B2 Gold
335,000
£1,018,327
2.18


Americas Silver
931,185
£1,012,483
2.17


Sabina Gold & Silver
991,177
£990,801
2.12


Capstone Mng
240,000
£750,592
1.61


Bluestone Resources
696,215
£683,740
1.46


Pan American Silver
32,546
£672,933
1.44


Liberty Gold
551,000
£479,929
1.03


Gold Standard Ventures
1,000,000
£403,356
0.86


Lundin Mining
42,183
£274,455
0.59


Ascendant Resources
1,848,585
£264,755
0.57


Osisko Development Corp
50,000
£200,509
0.43


Newcore Gold
500,000
£181,218
0.39


Trevali Mining
1,018,380
£127,993
0.27


Teck Resources
7,500
£124,821
0.27


Orea Mining
717,000
£33,531
0.07


Allegiant Gold
73,400
£18,879
0.04


Pan America Silver *
168,700
-
-


 
 
£29,541,377
63.27


 
 
 
 


United Kingdom
 
 
 


Hummingbird Resources
2,420,000
£459,800
0.99


Keras Resources
37,500,000
£35,625
0.08


Sovereign Bauxite of Guinea Ltd*
100,000
-
-


 
 
£495,425
1.07


 
 
 
 


Mexico
 
 
 


Industrias Penoles
24,000
£239,997
0.51


 
 
£239,997
0.51


 
 
 
 


United States
 
 
 


MAG Silver
79,000
£1,196,337
2.56


Platinum Group Metals
449,795
£1,172,147
2.51


Golden Star Resources
522,329
£1,070,029
2.29


Pretium Resources
106,926
£739,956
1.58


First Majestic Silver
31,140
£356,382
0.76


Pan America Silver
50,000
-
-


 
 
£4,534,851
9.7


 
 
 
 


Total Equites
 
£51,798,332
110.94


 
 
 
 


Warrants
 
 
 


Pure Gold Mining July 2019
500,000
£220,413
0.47


Osisko 12/01/2023
25,000
£13,619
0.03


Ascendant Resources 07/03/2022
514,043
£4,507
0.01


Trevali Mining 02/06/2022
73,127
£2,992
0.01


Pall 1 Plc 23/02/2023
1,687,500
 
 


 
 
 
 


Total Warrants
 
241,531
0.52

[king_baller] 19/12/2021 12:20

If expecting significant deflation then yes usd/ust is what you’d want to hold. I’m expecting growth (but slowing) and disinflation (rather than deflation). Hedgeye expecting quad 1 or a narrow quad 4 short term. Both are good for equities. Good returns in gold miners and house-builders over the next few months before any significant deflation risk IMO.

[apollocreed1] 19/12/2021 00:26

@King Baller- seems that just buying dollars is the best safe haven in such a case.

[king_baller] 18/12/2021 21:07

Just to follow up my last comment. London is facing unprecedentedly fast spread of omicron. All are forced to lockdown for 10 days. Omicron might only cause flu like symptoms or a cold, but the speed at which it is spreading will cause lockdowns. Sell your commodity stocks, particularly oil. Buy gold, buy stocks in gold miners, buy companies which a decreasing oil price helps eg housebuilders. You’re welcome.

[king_baller] 17/12/2021 09:08

Without doubt omicron’s infectivity is going to cause a global slowdown, and thus be bullish for gold. It’s irrelevant if it’s much milder. It’s the case counts which force policy (which is wrong in my opinion, as we should be living with it). But China have a zero tolerance policy. And western countries won’t accept exponential spread. Expect oil to drop, disinflation, lower growth. All good for gold in the short term.

[stevieweebie2] 16/12/2021 10:59

yes, I picked up another 10k worth of these a few days ago, paid 41 , not the bottom but still, insanely cheap.

[king_baller] 16/12/2021 10:45

Very high volume in gdxj yesterday. That’s probably the bottom for gold miners. Fill your boots!

[rougepierre] 16/12/2021 08:22

Just bought 120k under 40p...unreal...20% discount to NAV...

[kickingking] 16/12/2021 00:19

Price now is 25% discount to NAV. Price is too cheap or something is seriously wrong. How low can it go. Another one for the bottom drawer.