Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[scruff1] 25/1/2024 18:02

I wouldnt bank on Ferrymuir !!!

[cocopah] 25/1/2024 17:58

I stand slightly corrected. The operational dividend cover was 0.72 and with contributions from Stoney & FerryMuir this year (plus the diversification of the portfolio) I would be surprised if it operational dividend cover wasn’t above 1.0 on an annualised basis this year.

The 0.5 statistic refers to fund-level dividend cover. It’s not a measure I’ve used or come across before so if anyone knows whether it’s an appropriate measure to use I would appreciate the enlightenment. 🤔🤔

[scruff1] 25/1/2024 17:49

Its like reading the same act of a play over and over. And about as action packed as Waiting for Godot. Its been falling for 2 years accompanied by the same tales. There really is nowt new to say. Im loaded with em but no longer confident. I am wondering how low this can go. Approaching the ATL again.

[waterloo01] 25/1/2024 17:29

They should correct it and also reiterate they are on to hit divi cover and don't intend to change the metric, and the growth is funded.

The Jefferies research would have been of more use 9 months ago, when something started to look wrong with the UK market prices. All a bit barn an door, especially as they say it should correct by end 24.

[cocopah] 25/1/2024 17:03

Interesting that Jeffries gets away with quoting divi cover that does not reflect the published data by GSF. The company should issue an RNS rebuttal, if nothing else. I have sent a message to the CEO asking him what, if anything, he intends to do. Whilst the dividend may not be fully covered, it is likely to be so this year and was certainly above 50%, more like 70%+ from memory. In addition, the note does not identify how well financed the GSF developing assets are, nor the future diversified revenue streams in 2024. Perhaps the company is not managing broker comms well enough.🤷R05;♂️🤔

[mylands] 25/1/2024 16:55

It's only fools that ignore what the market is telling them.

With a furher fall today of around 4%, I'm more convinced than ever that the div will not be maintained.

I am now looking at a return of about 5% at the current price, hence a 50% div cut to 4p,

[spectoacc] 25/1/2024 16:33

Difficult to see them not retesting previous lows, but who knows. Good luck.

[dodger777] 25/1/2024 16:30

For my sins I’ve just added a few more to my dividend pot…might be getting a few more cheaper at this rate too..

[daveoz1] 25/1/2024 16:19

Interesting renewable uk link. Barnaby Wharton: "It’s great to see that our battery storage pipeline has grown by over-two-thirds over the last year, as this demonstrates that there’s a huge appetite among investors to enter this rapidly growing market." Hmmmm..he can't spend a lot of time tracking the GSF share price...

[mirandaj] 25/1/2024 15:48

Might be of interest as well as other press releases in news section.

[waterloo01] 25/1/2024 15:48

Harsh review by Jefferies, and understand the issue they raise re fixed dividends, but do think it over plays the risk especially in GSF, where we not only have a lot of capacity coming on stream this year, which should mean full divi cover by end of the year, have geographic diversity, and it's funded it's commitments and is very lowly geared.

[waterloo01] 25/1/2024 14:07

UK will improve later in the year and hence the importance of diversified geographic revenues, key to Gore

[llef] 25/1/2024 13:45

That Jeffries note is interesting.

The part "with average annualised revenue since the year-end dropping to c.£18,800/MW from c.£35,700/MW in Q4 for 1-hour batteries"

implies to me that daily revenue is about 50 pounds per MW in Q1.

Assuming a battery is charged and released twice a day, (released at peak morning and evening times), then that would need a 25 pound delta for each cycle.

That looks in line with tomorrow's prices, as battery could be

charged at 40 pounds/MW between 3-4am, and discharged at 76 between 8-9am
charged at 50 pounds/MW between 12-1pm, and discharged at 84 between 5-6pm

The more volatile the day, the bigger the profit, but I guess the more storage is rolled out, the narrower the range will become.

[mr george stobbart] 25/1/2024 13:04

Jefferies Note published today on Battery Storage Trusts (25/01/2024)

Battery Storage - The Dividend Imperative


The uncovered dividends for the battery storage funds across 2023, coupled with pressures on GB battery revenues that are unlikely to ease until at least the tail-end of 2024, may prompt a reassessment of current dividend policies. Here flexible policies based on net cash flow could be more suitable and provide less of a constraint to capital recycling.


Uncovered dividends: The highly challenging revenue environment for GB batteries throughout 2023 has resulted in all three battery storage funds being unable to cover their dividends. We estimate calendar 2023 dividend cover to be 0.1x for GRID, 0.5x for GSF and 0.0x for HEIT (i.e. costs are offsetting cash income). Coupled with the funds' capital constraints, requiring capital to fund construction projects, this results in material risks to current dividends, particularly as the pressures on GB battery revenue are unlikely to ease until at least Q4 this year.



Flexible dividend policies?

While the energisation of additional projects throughout the course of 2024 will provide a tailwind to income, the shift in the revenue mix from frequency response to trading means higher (indirect) exposure to merchant power prices, and so bodes for more flexible dividend policies, versus the current fixed or progressive dividends. Here dividend policies where the funds pay out a defined proportion of net cash flow may be more suitable in light of the volatile nature of the revenue. Moreover, releasing the funds from their current 'fixed' dividend commitments will provide less of a constraint to capital recycling, supporting the sale of operational projects that could help validate the highly subjective longer-term revenue assumptions. Alongside the revised dividend policies, any excess liquidity could also be returned to shareholders via share buybacks, offering seemingly attractive levels of NAV accretion at current discount levels.

YTD battery performance: Since we published our Q4 State of Charge note on GB battery performance (here), Modo Energy's revenue benchmark has fallen further, with average annualised revenue since the year-end dropping to c.£18,800/MW from c.£35,700/MW in Q4 for 1-hour batteries, and to c.£27,400/MW from c.£53,300/MW for 2-hour batteries. Here winter revenue has proven to be weaker than expectations thus far, in part driven by lower power prices. We also recognise that the positive impact to revenues from the balancing mechanism reforms will be gradual, meaning investors may need to wait until next winter to see a meaningful improvement in trading performance.

[mylands] 25/1/2024 12:45

I admire you guys saying we have reached the bottom, but the market is saying the opposite with 73p now the bid price. The fall continues, even with a yield of over 10%, based on a maintained div, which must soon have a questionmark hanging over it.

[nickelmer] 24/1/2024 15:21

Take a look at the performance of GRID and HEIT falling to new lows, they are exposed to the UK only I believe, DYOR of course, GSF have the global portfolio which generates far better revenues than UK assets

[ec2] 24/1/2024 10:56

I'm happy to take the 10% yield and wait. 6% over risk free rates seems more than enough compensation. When the share price catches up it could be a sudden move and the risk would be missing the boat. Almost 5% portfolio weighting here for me which is a high convection position.

[nickelmer] 24/1/2024 10:33

When central banks actually decide to ease monetary policy these will be back over £1 IMHO, its just a matter of when, higher for longer leaves these opportunities to buy at a very low price taking a 3-5 year view

[scruff1] 24/1/2024 10:25

Thats my opinion too and seems to be widely shared. Hard to equate it with the lack of interest though. Puzzles me and frustrates me.

[nickelmer] 24/1/2024 09:00

I agree with EC2 and have added more at 75p, NIDEC took a stake and paid FULL NAV which show confidence and a long term outlook. GORE are the best of the bunch in BESS thanks to their global portfolio, if you want to invest in BESS then this is the stock

[ec2] 23/1/2024 20:44

Have built a reasonable position in these sub 76p over the last few days. The majority of the trust's portfolio is still under construction but the trust is already forecast to pay a 10pct potentially covered yield next year. Unlike many infra funds gearing is very low with sufficient cash and funding through to completion of projects which are projected to triple battery storage capacity by end 2026... Think what that extra income will do for the dividend payout going forward. Often a 10pct forward yield is an indication of unsustainability, but I cannot see this is the case here. The high calibre NEDs would not want their reputations shattered by there being any skeletons in the cupboard. Another positive for renewable infra as a whole is that private equity is showing a definite interest in the sector.

[scruff1] 23/1/2024 17:47

Is that what is pushing us ever downwards !!!

[waterloo01] 23/1/2024 16:51

Paris-headquartered TotalEnergies has agreed to pay an upfront €90 million (US$98 million) to acquire Kyon from its three founders, plus further payments linked to the achievement of development targets.

Those development targets will be for the company’s forward pipeline of projects alongside 120MW of operational BESS projects it developed and sold to long-term owners. It has brought a further 350MW to the construction stage while 300MW is ready-to-build, and its ‘advanced stage’ pipeline is 2GW.


After a quiet few years prior, the grid-scale energy storage market in Germany has picked up since 2021 as high prices in ancillary service markets, energy trading opportunities and falls in the cost of lithium-ion BESS products combined to create a strong business case.

Progress has also been made in the country’s regulatory environment for energy storage, with regulators extending a grid free exemption for large-scale BESS to 2029 and then lawmakers last week publishing its first Electricity Storage Strategy.

[george stobbart] 23/1/2024 16:10

My uncle says to buy this one as takeover is imminent. He works for big city office unlike you plebs