Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 21/1/2018 09:47

Derisking the area may not be far away

Tullow due to spud their Cormorant well in September

However apparently, Chariot are up first ahead of Tullow as they are using the same rig.

Farm in partners for GBP may need deeper pockets, if either of the above two wells hit pay

Low taxation and the huge volume potential is the attraction here

[emptyend] 20/1/2018 20:57

As I pointed out, one of the higher risking elements is source. If source had been proven in the immediate vicinity, the risking would have been closer to 25%. If source exists at this locations, it will also derisk other prospects on the block as well.The risking on source is largely a reflection of lack of drilling in the area.

[neo26] 20/1/2018 17:56

you have to remember a lot of investors have been locked in at higher prices, with nothing happening for few years they have been stuck so the had opportunity to get out once share price rose.

With regards to the asset, its surely has value for gbp, investors were disappointed with the COS being only 12% considering the statement made by chairman saying that the block was significantly derisked. GBP have said the COS will be increased further once 3d seismic has been done, but this will require farm in. They need the farm in partner to do the seismic data, maybe they can do a deal that they can split cost 50/50 for the 3d seismic.

Should a suitable farm in partner be sought then i guess gbp will hold around 25% and give away 60%.

[yasrub] 20/1/2018 17:44

On stock churn I do not think it is a large seller - simply PIs trading. What does seem apparent is the share price is volatile both ways ! Should there be good news then I think we will get a real rerate. Easy to say but surely the farm out process will be competitive - CPR compelling and as already shown appetite from some large players in the area already.

[jimarilo] 20/1/2018 12:52

Hopefully down the line there will be a bigger prize than of late, be it a farm out or buy out

OMV & Murphy farmed into Cowan Oil & Gas Namibian prospect in 2014 on the back of 2D seismic. So I am guessing there is an appetite

[emptyend] 20/1/2018 12:02

I doubt there is a large seller. Many small holders will have been in and out - and most of those that haven't (like me) will have at least thought about trading, given the moves.

[emptyend] 20/1/2018 10:55

Actually that isn't true. The major holders have had no stock awards.

[jimarilo] 20/1/2018 09:10

Considering the relative small free float and the amount of buying of late, of which some are marked as sells, there is obviously someone selling in the back ground

If this is the case, hopefully it won't belong before they are out

[yesyesno] 19/1/2018 22:54

Ha! do you really think they bought most of that stock? every year, year after year of doing nothing, they have awarded themselves massive fees and stock.

No, I would love these to come good but don't fool anyone into thinking these have not been just another AIM good earner for the directors.

[emptyend] 19/1/2018 22:29

It must be pointed out that the key directors have 40% of the stock - so if shareholders have suffered then so have they (to an extent well in excess of the fees they have earned).

[neo26] 19/1/2018 13:57

And back she goes...

[jimarilo] 19/1/2018 10:14

Unusual to see such a tight spread, online 2.5p to sell and 2.52p to buy

[jimarilo] 18/1/2018 21:44

Some more detail regarding Tullow's Cormorant Prospect

[jimarilo] 18/1/2018 08:25

Nice start to the morning

Tried a dummy sell and they would accept 100K @ 2.4p, well above NMS

[the_boy_plunger] 17/1/2018 19:32

nice

lets at least see 5s......

and note the weekly back test and the pivots, you will notice, if a flick down to todays low materializes and closes back up at todays close, then probabilities that a retrace will be swift and with only minor pivot resistance, a break to recent highs and beyond probable...........obviously, if you dont understand market mechanics, might appear confusing, but its relatively straight forward (never hurts to improve all aspects

in addition, here for the fundamentals, as this has some potential, eventually be good to fully understand how much (commercially) exists in the ground(s...........


is Glen waiting to buy the top again........

[jimarilo] 17/1/2018 16:30

I agree with the above, which does not compute with reality here, priced below cash

Hence, having added twice this afternoon

[emptyend] 17/1/2018 16:11

....so a 30% interest in Cormorant with a one-well carry is worth c. $23mn, judging from the Africa Oil deal. If you back the carry out of that (guessing $45mn for the well) that makes 30% worth $8mn without a carry. And that is for a 124mn bbl wildcat prospect based on good 3D seismic.Not sure what 3D would cost over GBP's prospects. Perhaps $6-8mn?.....but the prize is main prospect that could be 8X the size of Cormorant.One would think there is a deal to be done for 3D and a one well carry on pretty good terms?

[ohisay] 17/1/2018 15:19

Well yes OR - OGNC would be the obvious one .

[jimarilo] 17/1/2018 15:18

Nice link OR,

Huge amount of oil potentially in that one Block, with in a stones throw of GBP's

"The company added that Cormorant was estimated to contain prospective resources of 124 mmbls of recoverable oil on an un-risked best estimate basis. The cumulative best estimate oil resource potential of the leading four mapped prospects in the block total 915 mmbbls of recoverable oil"

“These submarine fan plays are analogous to successful large, commercial oil finds elsewhere along the African coast, triggering ongoing interest in offshore Namibia from major oil companies and Africa specialist players.”

Keep buying at this level and there will be a happy ending imo

[oilretire] 17/1/2018 14:33

I assume folk are aware there's a rig heading down that way for September??

These partners will be through the data room for sure.

[emptyend] 17/1/2018 14:21

Don't know really. Perhaps the risked PV of a 10% carry? Just depends on what alternatives there are. Maybe in the £12-15mn area as a guess? We should get an idea when the farmout process starts. I'd guess they'll have 20+ through the data room.Re chinahere's Q about spending money, I think they'll get something done by late Q3.....which may bring a halt to spending.

[chinahere] 17/1/2018 13:34

What chance is there that the residual money is spent on wages without much else happening?

[yasrub] 17/1/2018 13:31

EE that is my thinking - interesting what it would take in valuation terms for them to cash out.

[emptyend] 17/1/2018 13:09

The answer to that question will lie in what the major shareholders want to do. My guess would be they are now of an age where they would want to cash out rather than stay in a project that won't pay out for 5-10 years. It will depend on the deal terms.