Glencore Share Discussion Threads

[not my real name] 22/5/2016 13:26

Hi Russell,

Brent futures is a great move on Glens part. It is actually price manipulation and right on the edge of legality but that's the stuff Glen do best. They've traded with bad guys, that no-one else wants to know,for decades now and pulled strokes like this forever. That's why I love them!

Pasted a link below which hopefully answers most questions.

Noble cut bonuses by a huge amount recently, been accused of "falsely inflating profits" and desperately seeking new credit lines. Glen been there and done that so guess the boys just decided to jump ship. No news about it on the "shop floor" and no water cooler gossip so can't really help.

Regards,

NMRN

[russell250] 22/5/2016 12:37

I will look more into contango as the Bloomberg article was one of several similar at time -but I will come back as I will research - only 60k doesn't seem feasible to take punt - so I will come back

as for buying over a third of north sea brent futures and taking 3 of noble oil traders views??

[not my real name] 22/5/2016 11:52

(Tongue in cheek) Add basic maths to AGMs and contango then Russell!

$7 price differential in January was based on 1 year forward pricing.

Storage costs = 75 cents a month approx. Difference between March and April price = 90 cents. Profit = 15 cents per barrell and 12m barrels (your figure not mine) = $1.8m for that month.

Taken over the year $7/12 months = 58.33 cents which does not cover the storage costs if taken on an annual basis.

VLCC rates were $58,000 per day when I left work at 18:30 on Friday.This equates to $17.4m per month. Price for 2m barrels = 87 cents per barrel. This gives a "profit" of 3 cents per barrel or $60,000 with a $7 differential.


Glencores contango play was driven by the situation that existed at that time. It is not an ongoing income generator. The market changes every day and decisions are made on a minute by minute basis. It was not a viable play on Friday at 18:30. It may be on Monday!

Hope this helps.

NMRN

PS. I assume this story is what you based your speculation on. If not, please publish your source.

[russell250] 22/5/2016 11:16

profit may not be in hundreds of millions from oil storage but in jan16 had 6 tankers of Singapore with 2million barrels each with approx. $7 difference in future pricing - since then increased trades in brent to over 30% of market despite oil recovery sine jan

as for agm`s I have only attended approx. 25 in last 3 years latest was Barclays - sometimes forward statements shift share price or lack of them - in glencore after unexciting productivity update - the lack of fresh news on disposals have not enhanced recent shift when I feel 12 months from here much more positive sentiment

[not my real name] 22/5/2016 10:08

Don't think you fully understand contango Russell or AGMs for that matter. AGM not the place for debt reduction news and contango profits are minuscule compared to Glens problems. ALL profit helps but we are talking ten to twenty million here so nothing to write home about.

Glen great long term bet but daily trading is definitely for mugs with the current volatility.

NMRN

[russell250] 21/5/2016 21:49

dollar strength is real issue -hope trend change with some new disposal news - debt reduction - the contango on oil will probably be good but half yr results some way away -- june probably no rate increase but july possible if inflation raises its head

[tallrugbyguy] 21/5/2016 21:39

Hopefully the fed will wise up and postpone a rate rise until October, and the Dollar will drop and up the miners all go!

[aganatra20] 20/5/2016 07:22

Should go up today, commodities are up today!

[creddy] 20/5/2016 00:59

I'm not a chartist or big on technical analysis but I can see these dropping to 1.20. Hope I'm wrong but If they do, I drip buy more. If not and they move north, I'm squids in.

[aganatra20] 19/5/2016 21:47

Last time there was a hammer head finish to copper, the price of copper shot up! Could get a similar pattern this time maybe?

[tallrugbyguy] 19/5/2016 19:03

Overdone today, oil back up so fingers crossed for tomorrow

[aganatra20] 19/5/2016 08:32

Doesn't look good at the moment.

[russell250] 19/5/2016 07:35

Glen is today in swiss

Hoping that after stronger dollar that fall this morning with be small - honk kong markets ok - but after fed mins - usa moved from -.8% down to -4.2% at close.

agm - hopefully has some good debt progress updates

[tallrugbyguy] 18/5/2016 23:23

Does Glen have an AGM tomorrow at 10? Hopefully positive

[russell250] 18/5/2016 19:15

kakk - I trade with my own money from years of hard endeavours - I do not cfd hedge but glencore can be traded up to 2 million using 50k equity as works on 5% play

try it either way

[russell250] 18/5/2016 19:13

kazz you must be ignorant to my reason of reinforcing positive sentiment

- I trade full time have done for years but all I have read recently on this site is shorters ramping down

[kazz] 18/5/2016 18:11

What do you want,a medal,or a chest to pin it on.
Bragging don,t impress me much.People who have money don't normally.

[russell250] 18/5/2016 14:55

after a great start to feb march - just played a heavy position in this on and around production update - bought 0ver 900k shares at 153 - ouch at moment - but trading issues in china commodities and stronger dollar will be smoothed out with glencores heavy trading in brent plus oil strengthening
selling gold mine would be good
bought £210k of lonmin wish other way round will hold

[wisteria2] 18/5/2016 14:51

Grabbed a few today on the drop... time will out value or not!!! gla holders

[aganatra20] 18/5/2016 14:26

Dropping below the support now. :s. Still think this and other miners have been oversold! Should be a bounce back to around 139-140 by Friday I reckon!

[admin900] 18/5/2016 09:33

Expect 99p soon it droped more 15% last couple weeks.

[brightontrader] 17/5/2016 09:23

Am just putting a "coppercoat" on the hull of my yacht, that should put the share price up the price Coppercoat charge for this stuff!!!!

[younasm] 17/5/2016 08:45

I guess copper price had couple of weeks falling...... Hopefully back to 150-160p soon

[russell250] 17/5/2016 08:22

surprised with recent contango plays glencore has not benefitted more

[tallrugbyguy] 17/5/2016 07:58

Oil and copper up, looking like it could be a good day!