Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 06/2/2018 08:28

TM - one major difference with the FTSE of the past is that today around 70% of FTSE earnings are non GBP. That could indicate that it has become some form of inverted forex index or that in fact it should track the US more closely. Take your pick.

[abdullla] 06/2/2018 08:20

I think DOW has further to fall whereas Ftse will recover and stabilise GSK has already recovered half of this morning's loses!

[tradermichael] 06/2/2018 08:09

Also, GSK seems to have already had its fall (thanks Emma). Realistically, how defensive is it, given that the whole market is likely to fall on the back of a Dow crash ..... ;0)

[tradermichael] 06/2/2018 08:00

It wasn't so long ago that you could roughly say that the DJ would be 2x the number of the FTSE 100,and one would track the other (e.g. when the FTSE was 6000, the Dow was 12000).

Since then the Dow has escalated to 27000, but the FTSE sits at 7000. Now that the Dow is crashing, what support should the FTSE have?

[jrphoenixw2] 06/2/2018 07:10

@RichardXII - No doubt there are L/T pressures between branded/generic in some products, in some markets, but in others this is much less so.
For example in Asia, in my experience, when you visit a doctor, it doesn't seem to matter what your symptoms are, you're almost guaranteed to leave with at least 3 and maybe 5 different medicines dispensed at the waiting room counter before you leave. These will very likely include a branded ibuprofen/asparin/paracetomol of some kind, and likely some branded vitamin C. If you've any kind of cold/'chill' you are sure to be given branded antiobiotics. There is almost a social expectation that if you've even just a runny nose and visit a doctor, for him to 'properly' treat you you have to leave with a course of anti-biotics. The doctor is selling all of this (for profit), and in countries with health insurance patients don't care. As Asia L/T grows in wealth more people will have access to healthcare, so the market for this kind of profiteering over-prescription of branded drugs will grow.

So yes there is no doubt your point is valid L/T in the US and other liberalised and informed markets (UK, others?), but I'd imagine that it doesn't apply in the large majority of countries. For example in Scandinavia and Germany the pharmacy trades are effectively state controlled monopolies, so generics don't get a look in. I've first-hand experience of both, but it likely applies widely across Europe. I currently live in the Middle-East and it's mad, there are far more pharmacies than any other kind of retail outlet and everything they sell is branded. So when I visit the UK, staples on the shopping list (just below bacon and sausages) are the generic bathroom products needed to re-stock our meds-cabinet and toiletries. In fact anything of that kind I buy there 'makes me money', generic 'Lemsip', toothbrushes, toothpaste, anti-perspirant, lipbalms, moisturiser, shampoo, allergy tablets, vitamins... etc

[richard xii] 05/2/2018 18:34

Walgreens sells Advil for 9 cents a tablet. Unbranded Ibuprofen costs only 2 cents, no doubt available a few inches along the same shelf.There are many people who pay the 7 cent premium mainly because they do not know of the alternative. As advertising becomes less effective and Amazon and the like move into healthcare and provide more relevant information the premium value of branded products like Advil is likely to reduce.So along comes a wet behind the ears CEO from London offering 20 times or so EBITDA. Shareholders must hope she is outbid by another British company or can't raise the funds.

[montyhedge] 05/2/2018 18:31

Yes, that's good 80p 6.23% yield Finals 23p dividend. The other three quarters 19p.

[tradermichael] 05/2/2018 18:31

..... and Monty - the figures will be very good on Wednesday - rest assured. The market knows that and is milking it dry at the moment

[tradermichael] 05/2/2018 18:29

Well 'kept' = kept. That doesn't mean more nor does it mean less. What is the point of a post like that?

[hosede] 05/2/2018 17:43

Divi has been promised to be kept at 80p I think but It won't be more.

[montyhedge] 05/2/2018 16:58

Yes got my month mixed up 23p ex div should be 22nd Feb.GSK have been crushed from 1700p to 1280p let's hope decent figures Wednesday. Yield 6.20%.

[careful] 05/2/2018 16:52

you will not get at opportunity to buy at 1278p for quite a while.
Much lower than that, obviously.

[romeike] 05/2/2018 16:32

Added at 1278p, never thought I'd be doing that again.

[jrphoenixw2] 05/2/2018 16:31

Monty: 'If announced with figures 23p dividend which we expect, ex divi date should be around 22nd Jan. All being well.'

Previous 23p, hence in the absence of anything clearer, 23p is a decent estimate this time.
Results 7/2
X/D 22/2
R/D 23/2
P/D 12/4

Dates all current from the GSK site

[buywell3] 05/2/2018 16:25

Fund Managers now starting to offload FTSE 100 stocks as the USA starts to wobble

Retail Sector and Construction Sector look very weak

But big companies carrying big debts and pension black holes look likely to get hit further

[careful] 05/2/2018 16:02

GSK should not pay 80p per year.
they do not earn enough.
Why increase debt to pay it?

[montyhedge] 05/2/2018 15:58

Figures the finals.

[1fox1] 05/2/2018 15:57

So what's happening on Wednesday Monty?

[abdullla] 05/2/2018 15:53

Losos,we all know it won't happen,if there's going to be any jumping then let's pray for the hedgehogs!

[montyhedge] 05/2/2018 15:50

1fox
If announced with figures 23p dividend which we expect, ex divi date should be around 22nd Jan. All being well.

[losos] 05/2/2018 15:45

Abdulla - "Will there be a replay of the 1929,jumping out of the windows and stuff"

Have you read Professor Galbraiths book 'The Great Crash 1929' ?

He talks about the 'jumping from windows' story, it's an absolute total myth, it never happened. One interesting fact about suicide is that the per centage rate (of the total population) remains more or less constant through good times and bad. 1929 was a bad year for the US stock market and many people lost a lot of money but the number of suicides barely increased and the rate has been much higher in some of the boom years.

What this tells us is that suicide always has to do with the persons state of mind rather than the economy, wars, weather, or anything else.

[1fox1] 05/2/2018 15:43

When is the ex dividend date

[montyhedge] 05/2/2018 15:39

NY boy
Wow what a price, 6.20% yield, these will be 1345p hopefully Wednesday morning when Finals announced, if not 23p dividend to soften the blow, lol.