Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2015 16:24

12 months Jade imv, the new chairman puts the t in to tough.
Witty has said a return to growth in 12 months, he bought himself a year
on that basis.


FWIW having listened to his video interview with the FT, I can relate to
the strategy, the reasons behind it, and AW's view on the wider sector.

[jadeticl3] 10/6/2015 16:14

My holding in GSK is a very high proportion of my total portfolio. I hold for the divi and don't really bother too much when price falls, although I wince a little! When price rose to 1780 I allowed myself a little smile! However, unlike Anwar I do this only for GSK not for other high yielders. I have these in ISAs so I get about £20K per year in divi and all tax free, so I enjoy that and have no intention to sell, but I am disappointed that the price is so low. I thought Witty had bought some time and space for him to demonstrate that he could maintain divi and grow revenue.

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2015 12:50

Thanks, Woodford's been buying so you have even more in his fund,
it will pay off medium term imv.

[dr biotech] 10/6/2015 12:31

I hold quite a lot (~5% of my total holdings) - too many really at a price higher than this. I hold them for the income, which is why some time ago I suggested that it would be better not to pay the special this year to ensure they don't have to reduce it in future years.

I feel they are going to have a few difficult years with a lack of clarity on the earnings growth, then hopefully will see a steady rise. Its not going to be exciting.

I also hold woodford (20%) and ISF (6%) and others so my indirect exposure is quite high too.

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2015 11:28

Dr, what is your longer term view on GSK, assume you are holding some?.


For anyone Following Woodford, he has taken GSK to just over 7% of
his income fund, the holding is just fractionally below AZN.

[dr biotech] 10/6/2015 11:18

The generic should be the same as the brand name. By that I mean the level of the active pharmaceutical ingredient will be the same. These should be identical. What may not be the same would be the excipients that make up the rest of the tablet or other dosage form. There can be quite a variation in these which you would notice with the taste.

For enterics and other delayed release products the generic manufacturer would have to show that they released the API in the correct place and with the correct dose. Its something I know quite a lot about.

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2015 10:14

Appreciate the view Mark, it seems many are looking for close to £13.

Very small position for me atm, but the plan is to add on the way down
if the opportunity arises.

A few years ago I would have attempted to time this more precisely
and buy a full amount at a certain level, but that strategy has cost me
over the years with lost opportunities.

[supermarky] 09/6/2015 23:57

Yes ei my buy order is still ready and waiting at 1300 which I am expecting to be filled.

[topcar] 09/6/2015 15:41

its going to 13, its bloody odvious

[blueledge2] 09/6/2015 15:33

Down another 10 points tomorrow?
When it comes around to July and an opportunity to reinvest the dividend just watch it rise before you get the chance.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 12:04

Would agree zz, complementary if anything by further reducing risk.

[zzaxx99] 09/6/2015 11:50

Dr B - I don't see why moving to high-volume/lower margin vaccines business is incompatible with them being in high-volume/lower margin consumer business. It's a cash generator, isn't tied to patent expiry, has potential for Rx/Cx conversions and provides more predictable income stream without shocks like the pharma side has (repeatedly) seen.

[4spiel] 09/6/2015 11:48

I am often confused about these so called generic copies of therapeutic drugs. such copies have been available for Ventolin for a long time but having had them forced upon me by my usual chemist And found them inferior in function and unpleasant side tastes I went to Boots and said will you give me the proper Ventolin if I change to you. I still get the Proper Ventolin from Glaxo in the blue inhalers. In Spain you can buy them over the counter for about 3 euro but Seretide costs 55 euros but only 4 with a prescription and Ventolin o.50 cents - the NHS makes a profit on Ventolin I think. But my serious point is that should 'generic ' Seretide be any great worry ? Users may demand the proper stuff and not accept the substitutes as is so often the case with Ventolin.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 11:04

Having looked at the last cash flow statement GSK need to ruthlessly
focus on cash generation, more costs stripped out above current guidance
would not surprise me.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 11:01

Bought a few, just a small position.

Will add lower down if given the opportunity.

[dr biotech] 09/6/2015 10:56

If GSK is going to move to large volume vaccines and away from NCE then really their is no point in them have a consumer care division. Thats useful to support the pharma side when there are patent cliffs etc - but this would be less of an issue without them. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the business broken up over time, if they can get it to create value.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 10:43

You have to allow for the UKX level as well, we have come off over 200 now.
GSK is off more than double that on a % basis.

[blueledge2] 09/6/2015 10:32

Reinvest the div and wait. Only strategy.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 10:07

Witty will not go down without a fight, 30 years with GSK,
it would be a humiliating way to end his career imv as this is his strategy.
I would expect every single measure to extract value being considered
over the next 12 months, with deeper cost costs than previous guidance as one option.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 10:00

Ultimate breakup more likely Michael if growth is not re-established.

New CEO, strategic review .. ?

How much would the OTC business be worth to RB. alone, as one example,
GSK have an option to buy Novartis out of their minority stake.

[tradermichael] 09/6/2015 09:58

Never mind - a bid coming at this rate ...... ;0)

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 09:57

Depends on your timeframe blue, but you are getting a fat income stream
(at least for now) while you wait.

[blueledge2] 09/6/2015 09:54

I am just frustrated having brought at the wrong time.

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2015 09:50

Well if this rate of decline continued by November GSK would be worthless,
so no it is very unlikely to go down every day ).