Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[jadeticl3] 12/5/2015 11:57

Bad day that cannot be GSK specific as both GSK and AZN have fallen by the same large percentage.

Sad all the same, but improves the divi for those getting in at 1435p

[bolador] 12/5/2015 09:43

This stock has taken to moving inversely with sterling so the recent rally of the pound on the election result has caused a drop in GSK. The earlier rise to 1640p went had in hand with the fall in sterling to the 140's v the US dollar.
Longer term the pound will probably fall against the US dollar, and short term there might be some profit taking on the pound making todays GSK price attractive.
There are so many problems ahead for the UK with the EU and Scotland uppermost.

[montyhedge] 12/5/2015 09:02

P.e 26 expensive.

[jadeticl3] 11/5/2015 18:01

Now that so many unknowns are out in the open (including some changes to what we thought we knew) the price should stabilise with a gradual drift up or down as investors deliberate on the raft of changes. Personally, I am expecting a slow movement upwards (after allowing for the XD effect).

[cyberian] 11/5/2015 15:31

On further reflection I think that our CEO and the board have chosen a more assured path in their forward strategy in going for volume with some key basic lines of business,and greater efficiencies in delivery.

[supermarky] 11/5/2015 10:43

I can still see this dropping to major support year lows in the summer. Just my opinion. Good for the divis though

[tradermichael] 11/5/2015 10:33

Nice when dividends come round 4 times a year .....;0)

[supermarky] 11/5/2015 10:20

Xd Thursday so hopefully good run up to then

[jadeticl3] 10/5/2015 15:44

With Big Pharma, the ramp up in a new product revenue cannot match the rate of decline in a blockbuster that has just lost patent protection. Never. Hence the consequence of having a product like Advair is that at some stage we must see the kind of thing currently happening to GSK. Even if some great new products are hitting the market and increasing revenues are high as a percentage, they still won't fully compensate for the losses incurred by an Advair.

If we are back on track with increases in revenue by 2016 that is good going and will reflect a good performance by GSK. The hope of this should, IMHO, bolster the share price and prevent the fall to £10 that some are predicting.

[4spiel] 10/5/2015 12:12

Unless there is a much larger increase in interest rates than is currently expected there is no reason for a retrace to £10 given that nothing extraordinary happens - and that of course is always out there but would affect everything else. The best way for the bond market to unwind is for the global economy to improve more raising the real earnings of equity and gradually diminishing the attraction of inflated paper assets. Let's hope that is what will happen. Glaxo is a good company - it has time to re-generate.

[anhar] 10/5/2015 11:32

I've been following my strategy for a very long time and it works for me as a good increasing income provider long term, though it doesn't always rise year on year, plus as it happens the capital has done reasonably well too though that's not at all why I do it.

My port. needs very little monitoring really. I buy at HY and hold forever or until a yield falls to the market level. In practice sales are quite rare, usually years apart, because HY shares don't normally revert to the mean yield overnight, they tend to stay HY for very long periods. So I don't need to watch prices constantly. When a sale occurs, it enable me to boost port. income by reinvesting in a new HY share.

I write on here sometimes not because I'm always monitoring but because I like the intercourse with fellow investors.

[unastubbs] 10/5/2015 10:42

thanks anhar - good luck with your strategy. for me, although i am in a similar position, relying on income from equities to keep me free from the horror of working for a living, i don't want to be consistently assessing my portfolio, even on a quarterly basis, to establish whether a stock has moved below wider market return averages. my aim, and i think i have achieved it now as it has been a year in assembling, is simply to buy and hold for ever. thanks again - una stubbs

[anhar] 09/5/2015 19:20

anhar - good couple of posts there, mind saying how many companies are comprised in your portfolio and what proportion is the biggest?...

I hold 19 different sectors and many of them contain more than one share to spread the risk. I'm only in shares for income and because I depend on that, the risks have to be low. Right now there isn't one single sector that is worth a lot more than the rest because I top up sectors which are under represented when I have the cash and provided the shares are acceptable.

In contrast to your action though, I never overweight a sector at purchase. If it happens due to price moves I accept that but I never purchase shares which would put the sector above the average sector value at that point. That would increase risk too much.

I also hold BLT in my mining sector but will hang on to my allocation of South32 to see how their income develops. I'll probably sell in future if they prove to have a zero or low yield because that would trigger my sell rule of being below the market average yield, but as a new company I'll give it a chance to prove itself as a divi provider.

[unastubbs] 09/5/2015 18:30

Questor remains a buyer

[unastubbs] 08/5/2015 17:52

anhar - good couple of posts there, mind saying how many companies are comprised in your portfolio and what proportion is the biggest? gsk accounts for 10% of my own and i hold 17 companies (some are investment trusts). i am interested to compare with others - am also very tempted to sell the South32 shares I will receive from BLT in a couple of weeks and invest the cash in more GSK (for income longe term) - thus raising my total exposure to the latter to just over 11% of the portfolio - anyway, no probs if you don't want to reveal anything - una

[cyfalafwr] 08/5/2015 10:31

anhar.Thanks for your view on things.To me you talk a lot of sense.

[anhar] 08/5/2015 09:57

I know there's no increase planned for three years but I can live with that in return for the high 5%+ current yield, (more like 6% on my average cost) against the FTSE100 yield of around 3.4%, plus the 20p special for 2015 which I think is reasonable compensation for the three year freeze.

In any event my strategy rule is to buy at HY and hold a share until its yield is average. GSK is nowhere near that and has remained HY since I bought my first tranche some years ago, whilst having delivered the goods well in terms of the divis received.

Agreed the dividend is not "secure" but no dividend from any company is secure when you're considering three years into the future. Equity income is risk income, never guaranteed or secure, and it's a risk I am prepared to accept for investing this way.

That's why I have a large and highly diversified portfolio, so as to spread the risks of dividend cuts. If I couldn't live with the occasional divi freezes, cuts and suspensions then I would avoid shares altogether as an income source. But on balance, port. income tends to increase nicely over the years though there are years when it has fallen if cuts are very common.

As for Witty, I have no interest in CEOs as I said. You have to wonder though whether he lives up to his name. I believe it's called nominative determinism.

[essentialinvestor] 08/5/2015 09:48

Well focus on the income then, no increase for 3 years.

And how secure is even that pegged payout?.

It did not take long for a change of mind on the Novartis related payout.

Witty may not even be in the role during the next 3 years.

[anhar] 08/5/2015 09:31

Who cares about share prices? It's all about income. Trying to trade shares for profit will be a losing game for almost everyone.

I upped my stake in GSK yesterday as it now has a cracking 5%+ yield, had fallen underweight in my diversified income port., and I had a bit of spare cash to reinvest somewhere. I only invest in shares for income and above market income at that. I sell when they drop to average yield or never, which ever comes first.

I have no interest in "pipelines", whether or not their latest dope is selling well, the CEO, or much else of the guff that seems to preoccupy everyone else here. Day to day news might seem important at the time but it's not, almost all of it is irrelevant over time.

I've held GSK for a number of years and it has delivered on the only thing that matters to me - income. But as it happens the capital does alright in my strat. too even though I don't invest for that. Right now the capital value of my GSK holding is up about 9% on my average cost.

[supermarky] 07/5/2015 20:17

My buy order is still set at 1300.

[spyder] 07/5/2015 20:16

Time for another company to have a go a running Glaxo I feel, the current management seem to have gone into caretaker mode.
Given the political uncertainty ahead, and likely lack of a firm mandate for any party, now would be the perfect time for a predator, friendly or otherwise, to pounce.
Bring it on I say, and I never thought I would say that!

[beckaroo] 07/5/2015 19:44

Ex growth for now but AstraZeneca has been ex growth for over 3 years now and hit an all time high 2 weeks ago. It is all about pipeline and strategy going forward.

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2015 17:59

Ex growth for now IMV, as per usual Andrew talks a good game
but it's results that count.


There should have been no payout from the Novartis transaction,
I made that point several times - so poetic that GSK belatedly conclude they need to
reduce the amount.

[steeplejack] 07/5/2015 17:55

At 10 quid,the stock would be yielding 8%.Unlikely in my view.