Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[zzaxx99] 07/5/2015 17:52

The GSK investor presentation from yesterday is here: hxxps://admin-production.gsk.com/media/650146/gsk-investor-event.pdf

Changes xx to tt in the link

[montyhedge] 07/5/2015 17:35

Ex growth p.e 25 this easily back to £10 in my view.

[jadeticl3] 07/5/2015 16:36

Who can recall the days when Glaxo's Zantac was in the situation that Advair is in now? It was the end of the world for Glaxo. Witty has tried to minimise the impact of the company's loss of a blockbuster by going for more products without blockbuster status so that no one product has such a huge effect when patent protection is lost.

Is this situation (as outlined yesterday) as bad as the Zantac loss? I think not. But loss of ones major product can never pass without notice. However, if the wagon is back on the track by 2016 and makes progress continuously for the next few years that is all we can hope for with Big Pharma. And GSK has not done too badly since Zantac lost patent protection!

[gswredland] 07/5/2015 16:21

It is! Watching from the sidelines.

[racg] 07/5/2015 15:57

Its a big old drop.

[toffeeman] 07/5/2015 15:24

Today's move seems to say ex-growth.

[dr biotech] 07/5/2015 15:17

hxxp://www.xxx.co.uk/articles/240825/glaxo-cheap-given-growth-and-income

The above lot are more positive than most - have to change the x's for i's in the link

[dr biotech] 07/5/2015 13:47

Analysts tend to follow rather than lead. Has to be said that it could be a couple of lean years here, the drop in sales is easy to do but getting the growth after that is the hard bit. I am not impressed with Witty - seems to try and deflect the underlying poor performance with corporate activity. Have to hope the cost savings are kept on track

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2015 13:05

Analysts were not forecasting multi year EPS declines a couple
of years ago.

[eeza] 07/5/2015 11:16

But useful when they agree with you. Lol !!!!

[topcar] 07/5/2015 11:09

anhar......Spot on, they are totally inept !!

[scemer] 07/5/2015 11:07

On the nail anhar!

[anhar] 07/5/2015 10:53

Why take any notice of analysts' views at all? I never understand why people repeatedly post these around ADVFN boards given that their forecasts are worse than useless.

If you know the industry, you find that everyone there knows they are useless. The reason they do it is just advertising, to get the broker's name published. If one does it, they all have to. Naïve people here and elsewhere oblige by repeating the stuff. Later on, most people forget the forecasts that go wrong so the brokers don't even suffer from the potential negative publicity.

Doesn't it make far more sense to make up your own mind and ignore analysts? Works for me.

[jadeticl3] 07/5/2015 10:51

So once again PugUgly we can see that Analysts don't have any insight--only guesses, anywhere between 1380 and1820.

However,the price action from noon yesterday until now also shows that investors don't have too much insight either. I have bought in again at 1469p based on "they must be worth at least this!". Three of your analysts agree, three disagree.

[dr biotech] 07/5/2015 10:46

10 year gilt yields are very low so I doubt we will see interest rates getting back up to 5% anytime soon. I think we need a bit of inflation to lower debt levels, though the impact on my investments wouldn't be great.

[gucci] 07/5/2015 10:43

1350p would be good

[pugugly] 07/5/2015 09:58

2 points to consider. With the statement apparenly fixing the dividend at 80p for the next 3 years no hope for increased yield. Also forecast short term eps to decline in high teens next year and future growth expected (targetted) but not certain gives the message to me that OK as a quasi utility stock for income only BUT I suspect bottom line revenue could be at significant risk from customer (i.e government) pricing pressure PLUS a tail risk of the yield becoming less attractive IF and WHEN interest rates revert back to historic level but if they stay where they are "a long japanese bath" then could be attractive.

Reducing my personal buy back in target to sub 1400.

Recent brokers targets



07 May 15 Liberum Capital Sell 1,400.00
07 May 15 Societe Generale Sell 1,550.00
07 May 15 JP Morgan CazenoveUnderweight 1,380.00-
07 May 15 Deutsche Bank Hold 1,600.00
05 May 15 Barclays Capita Underweight 1,820.00
01 May 15 Credit Suisse Underperform 1,440.00

[dr biotech] 07/5/2015 09:19

GSK down a lot more than the market though. Now below my buy price...

[cyfalafwr] 07/5/2015 09:13

Election jitters pulling the FTSE and us down today. Lets hope for a clear result and no hung parliament or coalitions.We don't need another election in a few months time.

[dr biotech] 06/5/2015 13:43

Market seems to like it - and ulitmately thats the only thing that matters.

[cyberian] 06/5/2015 13:05

I would love to be the fly on the wall when new Chairman takes his seat tomorrow, sense he is a driver for better returns and plays it quite straight...not fussed with any of the trappings of office. Maybe something of a cost control freak but with his experience he will be looking for even more constructive ways forward. The real extra positive with todays announcement is that some of the cost savings with the Novartis transactions are ahead of plans/expectations, and other cost savings initiatives are also running ahead of schedule.

[dr biotech] 06/5/2015 12:50

So basically doing what I suggested a couple of weeks ago. They probably paid some IB several £m for that and they just took it off here. :0)

But that seems better to me - 80p a year for the next few years and an extra 20p or so this year. Getting some growth back into their figures is key.

As also predicted, if the results are no good then they will announce the corporate stuff first - and they did. Sales down this year but predicted to grow next year. I'm always dubious about that, wouldn't surprise me to see the CEO step down if its not starting this time next year.

No spin-off of ViiV.

[toffeeman] 06/5/2015 12:47

atlantic: nope if it were shorts closing the spike would have been the opposite direction!

[woodhawk] 06/5/2015 12:43

I agree, doe808 - would have caused too much disruption, imo. Much better solution this way. Nice safe divi and way better than any savings account for the forseeable future. Very satisfied.

[anhar] 06/5/2015 12:43

The FTSE100 yield is 3.42% and GSK tells us that the div will be 80p per year for the next three years, ex the 20p special for 2015, now that the former B shares return of capital proposal has been aborted.

To match the market yield which is my exit point, GSK would have to be 2,339p and so I continue to hold for income as the price is well below that.

My exit target fluctuates constantly with the market yield and the level of dividend. My approach is to invest in shares purely for income with little interest in price action or much else.