Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[criticalthinker1] 01/7/2022 18:05

GSK RNS and tweet out. Note its not all about momo. Not ramping (OK a little bit)but have a butcher's at Sareum and their part ownership of SRA737.
Happy weekend all.

[patientcapital] 01/7/2022 17:41

Decent showing.

[alphorn] 01/7/2022 09:41

anhar - nothing to do with share price or forex. I shall update myself when I have time and post if of interest.

[tradermichael] 01/7/2022 09:21

Dividends arrived in my AJ Bell accounts already this morning ..... ;0)

[anhar] 01/7/2022 08:51

Yes it particularly helps those companies that use USD accounting, eg. all big oils and miners, the bank HSBA, as the sterling value of their divis is magnified by dollar strength. But equally it goes against us when the dollar weakens. Same for those few that use Euro accounting, eg. Unilever, Vodafone.

There is also some benefit from sterling weakness for those companies which although they use sterling accounting, have substantial USD income.

But in all the above types of situation, they may also have foreign liabilties which go the other way. The net effect is not always positive. They will usually give the net effect of exchange rate movements in their accounts.

Personally I ignore this factor when adding a new share because I have no clue about future exchange rates and I'm not a trader, just an income player.

[johnrxx99] 01/7/2022 08:36

The GBP falling like a stone helps the divi percentage-wise but not if you travel a lot or buy abroad - like what I do, LOL

[anhar] 01/7/2022 08:35

I don't see why the oversea revenue streams would be any different after the demerger than in the past, in total (apart of course from acqs and disps). The difference is that instead of all going to the old GSK, in future this will be split between new GSK and Haleon according to how those oversea interests are divided between the two new companies.

But since we have been given divi guidance as I mentioned, at least for 22 and also some indications for 23, I'm not sure how this is of much concern to us anyway. I speak as purely a long term divi investor with little interest in share price fluctuations.

A large number of FTSE100 companies have substantial foreign income, I hold a lot of them in my income port, but in considering their divi paying abilities when buying, I've never given much thought if any to the degree of that oversea income as I don't see it as a factor in my analysis and decision making. Exchange rates constantly change and I don't try and guess their direction.

[alphorn] 30/6/2022 16:02

anhar - thx. The overseas revenue streams (cash) have to be repatriated to the parent to pay out the dividends. If not, debt has to be used to make the payments.
I am not up to date with current mechanisms and tax (if any) consequences. Perhaps someone is???

[anhar] 30/6/2022 14:14

anhar - any views on the revenue steams coming in from overseas (particularly US) and dividends being paid out the UK?

I have no particular views on that. All I know is what they've said about the expected initial divis from new GSK and Haleon which at 52p in total for 22 compares poorly with the existing 80p from old GSK, a cut of 35%.

[jonjoneil] 30/6/2022 11:59

Sierra Oncology vote passed

[alphorn] 30/6/2022 10:53

anhar - any views on the revenue steams coming in from overseas (particularly US) and dividends being paid out the UK?

[anhar] 30/6/2022 10:50

One fact we do know and which is very relevant to income investors like me is that there will be a large divi cut after the split because they have stated that the combined payouts of new GSK and Haleon will be a lot lower initially than the old GSK divi of 80p. This hasn't changed for some years.

Despite that I'm going to take the income hit and continue holding the two new shares. I tend to hold most shares long term and in my experience demergers mostly work out very well in time.

[tradermichael] 30/6/2022 10:35

Good point. I am still holding, but according to the price activity ahead of 14 July, if there's a big movement, I'll consider exiting.

I think there will be enough extra energy to mitigate any potential business disruption (they've had a long time to manage this change!).

For new GSK there are a large amount of new product introductions plus acquisitions.
For HAL, its likely that it will draw out bids fairly soon after the 'split'.

[alphorn] 30/6/2022 10:25

TM - you have though the confidence to hold? Have you factored in the cost in terms of disruption to the businesses from the split? Or, do you believe that there will be none?
(All the best btw with your decision).

[tradermichael] 30/6/2022 10:20

For years I have been buying more with all of the dividends and that has built up a considerable extra holding. This time, I'm not planning to immediately invest (though I think that both companies will show gains after the 'split'.).

[scootstephen] 30/6/2022 10:13

Buying more ? Or putting money somewhere else ?

[tradermichael] 30/6/2022 09:46

14p per share dividend tomorrow?

[anhar] 30/6/2022 09:31

Indeed and I'm not against such discussion, just giving my view on the merits of speculating about this, a view which itself is part of the discussion.

[andyadvfn1] 30/6/2022 09:17

"Also, there is no point imo in speculating on the forthcoming market values of new GSK and Haleon. We'll know when they launch."Isn't the point of a share discussion forum to do exactly that

[criticalthinker1] 29/6/2022 16:37

Regarding votes its noteable that the Sierra Oncology vote re GSKs $1.9 billion bid is at 1800hrs today.
Also worth pointing out that one of SO pipeline drugs is SRA737.
This has been effectively put under the radar but I found a clinical trial NCT02797964 which actually shows this was in human trials and a very positive report as stated above was released in March 2022.
So in my opinion the break off Haleon has another drug further along that CRUK and Sareum have said zilch on this update.
So be interesting to see if the SO shareholders vote tonight goes through with the bid put forward....or ask GSK for more.

[anhar] 29/6/2022 13:28

Do you think shareholders will reject it?

No chance

Also, there is no point imo in speculating on the forthcoming market values of new GSK and Haleon. We'll know when they launch.

As for broker comment it is utterly worthless, for any share. Nobody with even a smidge of market experience pays an attention to this nonsense. Ignore it.

[mj19] 28/6/2022 16:54

Do you think shareholders will reject it?Basically they have their current shares split in two companies whether like it or not...Plus Haleon carries a bucket of debt

[mj19] 28/6/2022 12:40

Cheers very helpful

[jonjoneil] 28/6/2022 12:36

TM
It is similar to the thinking that all dividends are free