Geong Share Discussion Threads

[greek islander] 23/4/2012 11:51

Finally had enough
Offloaded all my GNG today. Funnily enough, no difficulty in selling hundreds of thousands of shares. Got 10.36p average.
Came to the conclusion that with this management and CEO no prospects of things improving markedly.

[shaware] 23/4/2012 11:38

The 22 April RNS stated Qtr3 sales of £2.9m (£2.4m IASS accrued income and £0.5m SaaS new business invoiced) and this ties in to interims segment correction 20 Dec of £4.7m(Iass £3.6m+Saas £1.1m) to make the Qtr 3 Ytd £7.6m (Iaas £6m+Saas £1.6m) which the company is declaring.

My original expectations for Qtr 4 were therefore Saas of £2m+Iaas fixed £0.5m ie "10.1m+Saas peformance fees?

My new guess is now £10.1m - non delivered Saas contracts + a much lower level of performance fees.

Sales £9m or £9.5m or £10m
GPs (if average after mix change is as 2011) 53% = £4.7m or £5.0m or £5.3m
Overheads etc(incl aborted aquisition costs) (2011+5%?) £3.7m
PBT £1m or £1.3m or £1.6m
Tax? £0.3m
Profit before *(?) £0.7m or £1m or £1.3m
(and before aborted aquisition costs c£0.3m)

2011 was PBT £2.5m-Tax £0.5m-Exchange diff*£0.5m) = £1.5m


Obviously my figures are only guestimates and I am sure others will come up with different numbers but with all its technology and client base and target markets there is considerable recovery potential here at this price. IMHO

[blippy2] 23/4/2012 11:26

Guys. Please. Just sell. You made a mistake, no big deal, just sell and move on. Find yourself an exciting growth company that's worth investing in. Elban has been calling it right all along. They have negative cash flow.

Look at receivables to revenues. It's all bogus. Take your sales proceeds, and spend it on a slap-up meal with your wife, buy a treat for the kids, whatever. Salvage something from the situation. Anything.

I'm really disgusted by some of the ramping behaviour on here. I find it morally repugnant that people are touting this share knowing full well it's doomed. I can forgive ignorance, but not callous attempts at share manipulation.

[geheimnis2] 23/4/2012 09:45

i wonder if we will see very significant bad debt write offs here

[sir rational] 23/4/2012 09:34

Couple of odd things, can't be explained purely by shorts closing.

Big sell-off Friday but given GNG's illiquidity, would have been worse if person(s) unknown had not been picking up the shares.

This morning, thin trading and indications that share price could easily rise a few pence if illiquidity works in holders' favour and weight of trades tips towards buys.

Would like to know what's going on in the background.

FWIW I speculate that dirty washing = kitchen sink.

Hacker will therefore be in a position to sign off accounts very promptly (after thorough audit) because all the dodgy elements will have been written off/ laid bare.

[shaware] 22/4/2012 23:31

Just my view Simon but as FinnCap appointment was only announced 20 days ago and Geong have now aired their dirty washing I personally would rather wait to see a prudent note that can be clearly roadmapped to sensible preliminary results.This would also give the company more time to tackle their sales performance and possibly announce some contract wins to evidence any broker assumptions.

We have to wait anyway for Hacker Young's audit (to include the £5.3m year end cash balance) and the current share price and £4.1m market cap have already discounted a fair amount of risk for me.

[simon templar qc] 22/4/2012 22:17

Has anybody seen if there are any revised forecasts after the statement? One would have thought FinnCap would have given revised figures and issued a note.

[shaware] 22/4/2012 22:12

A belated response to the following post
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pro_S2009 - 20 Apr'12 - 11:07 - 20198 of 20265
The writing was on the wall.
Change from a high profile auditor in China, to one with a couple of people.
Token gesture director small buy.
Change of Nomad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Regarding change of auditors to UHY Hacker Young:

a) "The Company has received a letter from its former auditors, Mazars LLP, with a statutory statement confirming that there are no circumstances connected with their ceasing to hold office as auditors that should be brought to the attention of members or creditors"

b) The UHY Hacker Young Group is a Top 20 Group of UK chartered accountants with 96 partners and over 600 staff operating from 19 offices across the UK. Established in London in 1925, the group is also a founder member of UHY International, an international network of accountancy firms with 235 offices located in 78 countries across the globe.Total fee income for the fiscal year 2011 was £45 million, making UHY Hacker Young the 17th largest accountancy network in the UK.

c) Appointed the above as auditors to the Company "FOLLOWING A COMPETITIVE TENDER PROCESS".

d) New China team recruited as part of the London Audit Group Audit partner Julie Wilson appointed to lead the China desk UHY Hacker Young has appointed Julie Wilson as audit partner to head up our new China team. Grace Lim has also been recruited as assistant audit manager to support Julie on the China Desk. Both Julie and Grace are fluent Mandarin and Cantonese speakers. .

Julie's clients include a range of businesses with Chinese interests including UK subsidiaries of Chinese companies, Chinese companies listed on the UK stock markets and local Chinese companies trading in the UK. With her 5 years' banking experience, as a qualified accountant and chartered tax adviser, Julie is able to provide full, partner level support and quick response times to her clients.

Julie and her China Desk team spend much of their time in China and Hong Kong, advising and supporting the firm's Chinese clients and UK companies with Chinese Subsidiaries. The whole team are fluent in Mandarin and Cantonese.


2) Can't comment on one off purchase but I believe that directors and senior management still have 26% which I would have thought is a real incentive to produce the goods.


3) Not sure why the change of nomad to finnCap who have experience of small caps should not be positive and may even reflect re-tendering or a desire for a fresh pair of hands. Pointless to speculate IMHO.

[sir rational] 22/4/2012 21:58

They can hoover up 10% if they want to

[sir rational] 22/4/2012 21:56

Material normally means more than 10%

[mudbath] 22/4/2012 21:53

Was GNG itself the buyer in size on Friday,thus preventing a total collapse of the S.P.?
I could not agree more with greengiant's concerns.
Who else then would be hoovering up the slack;as certainly no one here is claiming responsibility.

[greengiant] 22/4/2012 21:41

As a holder, very small holder as I never fully bought into this story, the main questions I would be asking myself are the following:

1) why has cash dropped by a further £1m in the final quarter? The update on 22/02 gave a detailed explanation of why Accrued Income was so much higher, but the further decrease in cash doesn't make any sense to me. I would have thought that if anything Debtors and Accrued income should be moving the other way.

2) why would the company state on 22/02 that it was confident of a satisfactory outcome, then issue what is a dire warning? It cannot be very close to its customers if it did not know their KPI's were not being met, never mind that a major customer had only bought 33% of what GNG had expected with just a little over 5 weeks to go before year end.

3) slowing growth in China as an excuse. Key word here is growth. I would expect slower growth at GNG, not material shortfall (thereby massive contraction of revenues).

This to me looks like massive incompetence by management which casts further questions on exactly how good they are. Especially with regard to the Finance function.

Gg

[hugepants] 22/4/2012 21:21

I disagree Rational.

[sir rational] 22/4/2012 21:02

All in the price - and much more, HP

[geheimnis2] 22/4/2012 20:57

You have been saying that for a while, ratty

Unfortunately this is a total dog

Woof woof

[sir rational] 22/4/2012 20:55

Even if the receivables take a big haircut and we ignore cash that would still be circa 20p/ share.

[hugepants] 22/4/2012 20:51

Id suggest gross margin means jack. Or even less than jack. In fact you should ignore the P/L account with most of these AIM chinese companies. Just look at the cash-flow statement.
If you assume the cash they claim to have is roughly netted off with creditors that leaves the NAV roughly equivalent to the receivables. I don't think the stated NAV is anywhere near credible. It deserves a severe haircut. Probably a number 1.

[sir rational] 22/4/2012 20:45

Some bean counter should run the numbers.

10m rev
48% gross margin
£350K exceptional costs

Take off another 10% to be conservative

What's the bottom line?

[simon templar qc] 22/4/2012 17:16

I think I would agree with "the smoke and mirrors" quote accounts were too cloudy for my liking I was tempted a few times to take a punt but the business model looked flawed somehow.

Good luck chaps to any holders you may need it.

[stewjames] 22/4/2012 15:44

I notice that as soon as they switch to a payment model that requires their customers to actually pay up in a slightly less than ridiculous timeframe, turnover dives.

[hastings] 21/4/2012 11:59

What a disaster this has been for investors. There have been some excellent posters here over a period of time, who understandably bought the story. However, as others flagged up some time back, there were too many fly's buzzing around the ointment here. The board here have been consistently bad on the pr front and have now dished up a truly awful trading statment. Difficult to see where this is going and must say although I have kept a close eye since selling out this is not for me. Smoke and mirrors springs to mind here or just a totally failing management team. Good luck to those who chose to stick around.

[sirookietrader] 20/4/2012 17:48

Looks like highest ever volume traded in a single day and lowest ever share price since listing 6 years ago.