Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sparky333] 12/2/2019 14:46

Yeah bloody gas deal by April !!!!!

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 14:42

Genel Tweet:

Bill Higgs, COO, is being interviewed by @mgrahamwood tomorrow on @CoreFinanceTV, discussing Genel's 2018 and the opportunities in the portfolio.

cyan,

Would you be able to get graham-Wood to ask him a couple of questions?

[cyan] 12/2/2019 11:52

Here is the full calculation text from Hydrogen;


Hi all,

Here’s my view on confirmed and projected oil production figures net to GENL for YE2019

From this week’s update: “DNO's 2019 drilling program includes up to 20 exploration and production wells in Kurdistan, including up to 14 new wells at the Tawke field, four at Peshkabir. Pesh 9 and Tawke 52 going on production in Feb 2019. Each new Pesh well flows at circa 10K each”.

That's a new 40k x 0.25 = 10k net to G

So: DNO’s confirmed current Tawke licence bopd nos for Tawke, Pesh and the Total as follows:

Q3 83.4 29.7 113.1
Q4 77.1 50.1 127.22
Jan 19 74 54 128.0

Looks like Tawke’s declined circa 10k since Aug18. There are 52 wells in the field and they’re planning up to 14 new… so let’s just say 10 are completed producing an average of 3k each that’s another 30k bopd during 2019. (conservative? as they may produce more?)

So whilst the field has declined, DNO appear confident this is chiefly due to underdevelopment (hence the 14 poss new wells!). Allowing for 20% decline over the year in current production then 74k x 0.8 = 59.2k + 30 = circa 90k bopb at Tawke.

So YE 2019 Total on Tawke Licence: Pesh (Current) 54k + (new) 40k = 94k + Tawke (estimated increase to) 90k = TOTA 184k bopd x 0.25 = 46k bopd net to GENL

All from DNO’s handywork and as stated allows for 20% natural Tawke field decline.

So this brings us to Taq Taq = Another 3 confirmed new wells at 3.5K each pushing old TT up into the 20k’s so let’s say 20K (which allows for 20% current field decline in existing production) so 20k x 0.44 = 8.8K net to G
Sarta new oil will be 7.5 x 2 = 15 x 0.3 = 4.5K bopd net to G

So that’s a Total of 46 + 8.8 + 4.5 = 59.3K net to G (confirmed development barrels during 2019)
Then there’s the so far unconfirmed BODP: by YE 2019 from BINA - I estimate 10k bpd from:

Bina Bawi oil from 2 new wells drilled and on production at 5k BoPD each but 100% to G so = 10K bopd Think there’s an existing test well that can be put into a producer so let’s estimate 5k for that. BINA Light OIL TOTAL 15k

SO TOTAL YE 2019 PRODUCTION ESTIMATE CIRCA 75K BOPD NET TO GENL.

Which is a 122% increase in production from YE2018. We’re currently near as dam it $1m/day free cash, so increase that by 122% = $2.2m/day (assume oil still around $70 into 2020) that’s over $800Mn annual revenue by YE 2019/2020. With no debt. Profit must be at the very least 60% of this?

Not 100% sure what this does to the share price but in principle it should increase 122% from current levels to circa £3.97 (assumes at current $62 oil). However at $70 oil increases our MCAP by circa $500m/£386m net cash each year through 2020/21) and that’s not including any gas (which obviously will now happen!!!).

It’s therefore not unreasonable to conclude GENL could easily go from £4 to £5/6 a share with the addition of Bina gas.

Then there’s Miran++ Phew! Any thoughts on my calcs…??

[cyan] 12/2/2019 11:36

$62.74. Like it.

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 11:26

Yes I did...

Credible. And certainly possible if the MNR give BB the go ahead very shortly. My only criticism would be the new Chevron blocks and the time lines associated with those. We have no information on timelines. I also wonder about production constraints, if there are any, on Tawke (total, Tawke plus Pesh). I`m guessing there aren`t any in the medium term-- IE start of `20- but I`d like to know.

What`s the betting next RNS is BB- oil FDP approval?

[cyan] 12/2/2019 11:19

nicebut. POO is looking good today and that's helpful to volume producers.

Looks like GENL is really upping production numbers. Did you read "hydrogen" LSE BB posts on his 75K GENL production calculationS?

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 11:08

cyan,

Agreed. Interesting the bit you highlighted...IE why did Genel highlight it? Anyway, Genel are way undervalued that`s for sure on anyones calculation. I`m not going in for conspiracy theories...Genel has great potential for the up coming year.

PoO going at last too.

[kulvinder] 12/2/2019 10:43

Never comes back up as quick as it went down... god-dam it!!

[upwego] 12/2/2019 10:04

Don`t you just hate these AT trades controlling the price!!

Still great news to come this quarter here`s hoping!

[cyan] 12/2/2019 09:56

Good morning nicebut.

Must not get ahead of ourselves, BUT, any potential bidder would need to see right up to date CPR's

[losses] 12/2/2019 09:53

Unbelievable we are still in the 180s!

[nicksig] 12/2/2019 09:53

Nicebut these reserves updates happened at the same time last year. I don’t see much of interest in them myself but looking forward to hearing more about the Chevron tie up and gas news

[kris akabusi] 12/2/2019 09:53

director buy lock in expired? looking for a profit

[upwego] 12/2/2019 09:51

This is great news!

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 09:49

Cyan,

Odd how it was so quiet for so long then suddenly 6 pieces of good news ..They`ve either finally woken up to the criticisms or is it just co-incedence with all the stuff coming in? Some might think there`s more going on behind the scenes...!! Talks?

[cyan] 12/2/2019 09:34

Another decent update .

I note the lines about the drill that was not factored in;

" This revision does not take into account the recent positive results from
the TT-32 well, which completed in 2019 and is currently adding over 3,000
bopd to field production. "

Brent $62.06 . Good

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 09:32

Lets hope we don`t get loads of `why is this moving up`!!...If it stays up. LOL

[officerdigby] 12/2/2019 09:27

Opps! red face emoji!

[chopsy] 12/2/2019 09:21

Officer

1P is proven
2P is probable plus proven
3P is possible (contingent) plus probable plus proven

[kulvinder] 12/2/2019 09:19

Goldrush, thanks for the confirmation, looks like the market has finally woke up, a spike to 185. Took 6 RNS's mind.

[goldrush] 12/2/2019 08:59

KULVINDER

Definitely looks like good news to me !!

[officerdigby] 12/2/2019 08:55

Taq Taq oil reserves

Gross oil reserves (MMbbls - McDaniel) 1P 2P 3P
31 December 2017 22.8 54.7 90.1
Production (4.5) (4.5) (4.5)
Technical revisions 2.8 0.3 1.2
31 December 2018 21.1 50.5 86.8


Now here a question. Presumably the production was circa 10-12k bopd gives the production as stated 4.5mmbo.

How comes you take 4.5mmbo off of all 1P, 2P and 3P reserves? not just the one!

Production was not 4.5+4.5+4.5=13.5mmbo (~36000bopd) now was it!.

[nicebut] 12/2/2019 07:20

Tweets from Genel:

Drilling in 2019 is targeting opportunities on the flanks of the field. Should the wells match the performance of TT-29w and TT-32, Taq Taq could deliver a significant year-on-year production increase, with room for further growth in 2020
.
This revision does not take into account the recent positive results from the TT-32 well, which completed in 2019 and is currently adding over 3,000 bopd to field production.