Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hawkey2] 08/7/2018 16:01

Putting their money where their mouth is..

hxxp://www.kurdistan24.net/en/economy/a58c5d03-4ef4-4cc8-a23a-307d2c1f8f75

[oilandgas1] 08/7/2018 14:24

What is the latest timetable for gas development in all locations? Are gas partners in place yet?

When is the gas FDP due?
Bina Bawi and Miran West gas fields concluded a c.40% increase in the combined 2C gas resources compared to the pro-forma end-2016 2C resource 14792bscf
Gas in 2019 H1?

Somali land 2d
Morocco Sidi 3D seismic in 2018
Gas prod in 2019 h1?

Genel Energy will drive Iraq’s gas production with 34.5% share of all production in 2021.

[cyan] 08/7/2018 13:17

For absolute clarity on PESH ; DNO is the operator with 75% interest. GENL's interest is 25%.
So our share of 30k is 7.5 k. Its planned to raise production even further.

I believe GENL was producing circa 32.5 k per day . PESH should take it to circa 40k.

GENL is highly cash generative and the recent strength in POO has really helped the books.

Look at GENL's share price history; get your timing right with dips and this share is rather profitable in the medium term.

GAS development will cause a serious re-rate .

[nicebut] 08/7/2018 12:25

So debt is effectively zero or there`abouts...Pesh providing 30k extra about to come on stream...Rising PoO...So how come its off c20%- 25%? Profit taking?

[tewkesbury] 08/7/2018 10:48

Petro Matad (MATD)

Fully funded six well high impact drilling program in Mongolia, total prospective resources targeted 850 MMBO, ranging from near field E&A to basin opener potential:

1) Snow Leopard-1 well (Block V)
- Spud week commencing 9 Jul 2018.
- Targeting 90 MMBO, drill to depth of circa 3,350 metres, 70 days to complete.

2) Wild Horse-1 (Block IV)
- Spud Sep 2018, complete Nov 2018.
- Targeting 480 MMBO.
- Named by Wood Mackenzie as one of the top 20 exploration wells worldwide to watch in 2018.

3) Block XX
- Near field Gazelle prospect targeting 13MMbo & rapid commercialization.
- Spud 1st well Q4 2018, immediately followed by 2nd well.

- New Red Deer prospect, 48MMbo in a basin analogous to nearby producing basins in Mongolia + northern China, within easy reach of existing infrastructure.
- Spud H1 2019.

4) Fox-1 (Block V)
- Spud early Q2 2019.
- Mean prospective resource 200 MMBO. High-quality 3D seismic late 2017.

5) Management hosting a presentation for investors in week commencing 9 Jul 2018.

(Placing in Jun 2018 provides final tranche of funding for six wells above.

Country already produces 21,000 BOPD (2017) from fields close to Chinese border, including from Blocks XIX + XXI adjacent to Petro Matad’s Block XX. Very attractive fiscal terms).

[hawkey2] 08/7/2018 09:35

Why buy Genel


You will all have seen my REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL post of how good a buy Genel is.

The bottom line is that on every single financial and share price value matrix Genel is massively undervalued...Fact.

Any day now we will have Peshkabir drilling results and production numbers. These are expected to be around 30,000 BOPD and rising by end of year. The DNO CEO described the Peshkabir find as one of the most exciting in his career. Production and transport cost are super low as all infrastructure is shared with Tawke.....Fact

Taq Taq has stayed pretty steady but some big drills are about to take place. There is growing confidence in the flanks of the fields....Fact

Tawke is still producing handsomely and continues to deliver our most income with some of the lowest drilling cost in the world....Fact

We have hughe assets in Somaliland and Africa with potentially billions of barrels of oil in then and as we speak are having their 3D and 2D either planned or analysed....Fact

Gas has always been seen as the company maker and slowly but surely we are moving towards production. These fields are truly world class and big...Fact

Free cash flow is more than any other company of its size I have ever come across. Debt wise we were at 135$ million at end of 2017, 89$ million at 1st May and this doesn't include May (22.4$ million) June (27.3£ million) July (TBC) payments.........Fact

So everybody should do their own research and make their own decisions but for me Genel is a huge buy.

Any thoughts ???

[hawkey2] 08/7/2018 09:34

Iraq and Kurdistan

There is no doubt about it we would probably have a doubling of our share price if our fields were in the North Sea.The risk is very heavy and real and even now could turn either way.

Remember only a few months ago KRG were almost at war with Iraq and on top of this even now ISIL are murdering innocent people on a daily basis. This isn't being help as the Peshmerga and Iraq forces are not currently working together as they were previously. Add in the Iranian military and it gets more complicated.

The other major problems is the Iraq election didn't provide any workable result and this has meant there is no fully functioning government in Iraq which in turn means the remaining issues between Iraq And KRG are resolved. These are huge ranging from the % of Iraq budget to displaced people, Security, Oil selling, Kirkirk disputed areas....and the list goes on. The Kurds best chance is to send a united team to Bagdad when things settle down as this will give them the greatest voice (or power to veto. block legislation)

The final thing which need sorting is the Kurdistan election which are of course on tribal and sectarian lines. Add into that powerful and corrupt ruling families and you have the potential for a power keg. Having said that for decades the Kurds have managed to rub along so fingers crossed.

So the final point is once again Genel is not a share for widows and orphans but with a modicum of luck could be an amazing investment.

Any thoughts ??

[hawkey2] 08/7/2018 09:33

Once again for Genel we are being buffeted by things not much to do with the company.

Firstly we have the Trump factor, how much Iran oil will come off the market, will he start a global trade war that will massively damage the price of oil. Then you have the Russians who are turning on the taps big time and have increased production since the Opec meeting. Saudi have been asked to increase oil by 2 million but most commentary is they can't actually do that.

In our favour we have issues in Venezula, Libya, Canada and Nigeria. The Saudis in truth want the oil price higher than it is for their IPO but very sensibly made the right noises for their master. So Saudi add about 1 million barrels and Iran lose 1 million barrel, Uncle Donald happy or thats the theory. Saudis also have their long awaited IPO although there are serious concerns this will ever happen.

In the longer term due to lack of investment over the years the oil price will rise and could go to a crazy number. There are billions and billions of $ of underinvestment in recent years and due to the renewable energy fear spend today is still far short of what is needed long term.

So my view is short term oil will hang around 75-85$ per barrel unless Donalds trade war kicks off which help us.

Any views gratefully received.

[yasharsad] 07/7/2018 12:08

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/if-us-gets-its-way-with-iran-oil-could-spike-to-120bofa-strategis.htmlOil prices will be inching up. Thanks to the orange crazy man.

[cyan] 07/7/2018 11:18

Ken gets around many boards and theme is pretty much the same.

"oil wells are depleting"

Lets not forget about the new, outstanding Peshkabir drill; one gas and TEN oil zones averaging 5340 barrels from EACH.

From he 22.3 18 RNS;



“The Peshkabir-4 well spud in February, and will potentially be followed by a further five wells in 2018. Field production is expected by the operator to reach 30,000 bopd by the summer and continue to ramp up in the second half of the year. This is very encouraging, and when added to the robust production from the main Tawke field, highly cash-generative.”

Also we have the sizable oil field in the Bina Bawi field to bring on line;

22.3.18 extract;

“Some of these near-term cash-generative opportunities can be found within the Genel portfolio. The significant increase in high-value Bina Bawi 2C oil resources we saw in the recent CPR by RPS Consultants offers a tangible opportunity. As Bina Bawi oil is both high-quality and in close proximity to the Taq Taq field and associated export infrastructure, it is an attractive near-term development candidate for the Company.”

“Bina Bawi gross 2C light (c.45 API) oil resources are estimated by RPS at 37.1 MMbbls, compared to 13 MMbbls as of July 2013. Due to the high-quality of the Bina Bawi oil, and given the value of these barrels, this represents an attractive near-term development candidate.”

I could go and on. Just read the results for yourselves.

Ken is short on detailed analysis.

[amr2o17] 07/7/2018 10:54

£230k says an NED has a better view on the situation than Ken

[kulvinder] 07/7/2018 09:00

According to your theory Ken this was a case of pump and dump, what should GKP holders do if that is the case since unlike Genl, they don't even have hope of seeing gas in the future?

[ken chung] 07/7/2018 08:08

The gas is still years away meanwhile the oil wells are depleting and there is nothing to fill the gap.

[teamwork1] 06/7/2018 16:39

Big buy at close 88k

[yasharsad] 06/7/2018 15:44

I told you so.we are blue. And all indicators are in green. Lets hope it is going yo remain like this for the next 45 minutes. I am off to the pool with my 3 year old. :)

[teamwork1] 06/7/2018 15:26

I really don't know why it went down but it was a good time to buy

[yasharsad] 06/7/2018 15:21

I think it is an entry point. Dyor

[yasharsad] 06/7/2018 14:53

It has bounced back from 2.20. And yes you are right intraday chart looks nice. Plus that hourly stochastic indicator is turning. We need some volume now to support it.

[chopsy] 06/7/2018 14:44

Intraday triple bottom, that's as good as we will get for chart support for now.

[basem1] 06/7/2018 13:07

Nasty action this week when compared with our peers PMO,TLW and PFC. No evident chart support as yet either. Guess time as to when the trend will change.

[d1nga] 06/7/2018 12:34

calm as calm can be just bought a lot more back from my sale at 280p
never thought they'd be this cheap though , strange price action the last week

[nicebut] 06/7/2018 12:32

Quite calm....I keep looking at the PE and market to book ratio....Sure some of you are looking at RSIs and charts...Just wondering thats all. I`ve taken advantage, and I`ve bought a few more.

[nodoe] 06/7/2018 12:21

Losses.....wrong, it's gone from £10!!!

[losses] 06/7/2018 12:18

I took profits early once I doubled my cash... now seems heading to the amount when I sold...With Gas news 400-500 I would guess