Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[energiser01] 17/9/2013 14:19

Update Denison & Rockgate.

As of 31/3/13 GCL held 600,000 Denison (1.8% of NAV)and 4,297,500 Rockgate (2.4% of NAV). However since then Denison did the deal with Fission (prev 8% of NAV 31/3/13). So we can not be sure of exact holding, although if the trust still holds Denison it would be no more than 6% as it was not in the top 5 hodlings as of 31/7/13. Rockgate may have been added/reduced in the intervening period also.....

Full rns @ hxxp://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=62712089&cp=off&webmasterId=101020

Denison Announces Superior Takeover Offer for Rockgate Capital Corp.

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sept. 17, 2013) - Denison Mines Corp. ("Denison") (TSX:DML)(NYSE MKT:DNN) (Currency: CAD$) today announced that it intends to make a takeover bid to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Rockgate Capital Corp. ("Rockgate") in exchange for shares of Denison. Under the terms of the offer, each Rockgate common share will be exchanged for 0.192 of a common share of Denison (the "Offer") with an implied value of $0.23 per Rockgate share and a total purchase price for all outstanding Rockgate shares of approximately $26.7 million.

The Offer represents a 47% premium over the closing price of Rockgate shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX") on September 16, 2013, the last trading day prior to Denison's announcement of its intention to make the Offer and a 38% premium to both companies' trailing 20-day volume-weighted average prices ("VWAP").

dyor etc....

[tonsil] 12/9/2013 10:23

Excerpt from Energy Report: During your last interview in January, you, along with many analysts, were expecting that 2013 was going to be the turnaround year for the uranium market. With the current price hovering around $35 per pound [$35/lb], what's it going to take to get this market moving?

Rob C: The uranium spot price has not moved as quickly as we were forecasting. However, uranium equities have shown some strength over the past year or so, as investors started buying ahead of the uranium spot price moving. Spot prices depend more on utilities and their short-term requirements, which translates into their activity in the spot market. However the spot market accounts for a small portion of the total market. Most transactions occur in the long-term prices, and the long-term contract price is at a healthier level in the $50/lb range. We believe the uranium spot price is currently below the marginal cost of production and therefore unsustainable, as half the producers around the world are losing money.

What's really going to drive the price higher is utility demand. Most utilities will go back into the market at some point to buy more material. We expect that will happen later this year or early next year. For this year, we're forecasting roughly flat to slightly higher prices if buying activity does heat up, and a much higher price next year, starting in Q1/14 or Q2/14, depending on how quickly utilities move. We are very bullish and forecasting an average 2014 uranium spot price of $49.50/lb. Investors primarily focus on spot prices, but they really should be looking at the long-term price instead.

TER: On August 21, the Russians made their final shipment of LEU [low enriched uranium] under the Megatons to Megawatts HEU Agreement. This was one of the milestones many were looking for as a positive market catalyst. Is this going to help the market?

RC: This eventuality has been baked in for four or five years now, but the generalist investors who don't focus on resources may see this as an important milestone and start looking at uranium.

[tonsil] 06/8/2013 06:36

This page shows uranium production by country:

[tonsil] 06/8/2013 06:28

The spot uranium price for U3O8 reached a 7-year low last week at $36.50 per lb. Those who have followed the uranium sector know that uranium prices collapsed after the Fukushima incident in 2011. However, I believe the odds favor a rise in uranium prices in the long-term for the following reasons.

1) Japan will be restarting some of its nuclear reactors perhaps as early as this year. Following the Fukushima incident, all of Japan's roughly 50 nuclear reactors were shut down for safety reasons. Earlier this month, however, Japanese utilities have applied to reactivate 10 of those reactors. The Japanese central government supports the reactivation. It may or may not happen in 2013, but expect this first wave of reactors to be activated by 2014 with perhaps a second wave to come sometime after.

2) New nuclear reactors are being built across the world and will come online in the next several years. Currently, there are over 430 nuclear reactors operating around the world. 64 new ones are currently under construction. More than 150 are in the planning stages and 300 more have been proposed according to the World Nuclear Association. It takes several years for a reactor to be built, but demand will increase in the next several years as these reactors come online.

3) Uranium mine supply has fallen short of global demand for many years now. In 2013, global demand is expected to be 170 million lbs, growing to 220 million lbs by 2022. The shortfall has been made up by Russia's Megatons to Megawatts program, which converts highly-enriched uranium from Russian bombs into low-enriched uranium used by nuclear reactors. Russia is expected to supply about 24 million lbs of uranium this year through this program. The agreement with Russia ends at the end of this year leading to some uncertainty about future supply in 2014 and beyond. More than likely, a new agreement with Russia will be reached, but as of today that has not happened.

4) New mines need a uranium price of at least $60 per lb in order to justify the costs of developing and operating them. Uranium prices thus need to increase by more than 50% to make building new mines economic.

In the US, if you're looking at any new production, you're going to probably need $65 to $70 uranium

[p1nkfish] 29/7/2013 14:11

Would be an idea if they cut the exorbitant management charge.

[p1nkfish] 27/7/2013 08:22

Money wasted on ausgold?
Looks like a gonna for as long as it will take to be useful.
Repeated t/o of key personnel.
That value looks like toast.
Anyone disagree?

[defcon3] 26/7/2013 13:58

Tick up again. Nice to see some blue!

[defcon3] 25/7/2013 21:21

Tonsil, thanks. I'll have a look as seeking alpha.

[tonsil] 25/7/2013 16:48

there are some very encouraging long articles on Uranium miners on Seeking Alpha
eg DNN - Dennison Mines in your dummy portfolio will bring them up - well worth a read. Encouraged me to invest directly in DNN alongside GCL. Just discovered you can invest directly in US stocks in HL accounts - they kept that quiet.

[defcon3] 25/7/2013 12:47

I hope so. Added a little more to my holding this morning

[tonsil] 25/7/2013 12:16

long overdue signs of life today - is the bottom behind us now? i believe so.

[energiser01] 09/7/2013 11:49

Japan Update

Article @ hxxp://world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Ten_Japanese_units_go_for_restart-0807137.html

Four Japanese utilities have applied to the country's nuclear regulators for permission to restart ten of the country's 48 non-operating nuclear reactors. Tepco is not one of them.

Utilities had been waiting for the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA)'s new regulations to come into force before submitting applications to restart reactors idled over the months following the Fukushima accident of March 2011. The units covered by the applications are Kansai's Takahama units 3 and 4 and Ohi units 3 and 4; Hokkaido's Tomari units 1-3; Shikoku's Ikata unit 3 and Kyushu's Sendai 1 and 2. Kyushu expects to submit applications for Genkai 3 and 4 on 12 July.

All but two of Japan's 50-reactor fleet have remained closed following the natural disaster of 11 March 2011 that struck Tepco's Fukushima Daiichi. Only two units - Kansai's Ohi 3 and 4 - have been allowed to resume operations to help meet power demand in the Kansai region. Ohi 3 and 4 are set to continue in operation until September when they will enter their next scheduled maintenance outage.

The new regulations require nuclear operators to show that their units are prepared for extraordinary external events comparable to the 2011 natural disaster.

Tepco's seven-unit Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant in Niigata was the only one of the company's three nuclear power stations unaffected by the March 2011 tsunami. On 2 July, Tepco announced that it would be applying for permission to restart units 6 and 7 as soon as the new regulations were final. However, following meetings on 5 July where the company failed to win the support of local officials, Tepco has decided to delay.


dyor etc...

[gardenarc] 17/6/2013 20:53

Good post jonno1 very interesting.

[p1nkfish] 15/6/2013 19:51

hxxp://trib.com/business/energy/uranium-one-laying-off-employees-in-wyoming/article_cbcb6db3-c672-5885-a91c-7db4758e4c67.html


Low uranium price impacting employment and future supply.
I think GCL will approach 25p at this rate.

[p1nkfish] 11/6/2013 08:08

spot uranium less than 40 and more weakness possible on low spot demand. Not bottomed yet? Sub 25p posible.

[energiser01] 07/6/2013 14:20

Update - Rockgate Capital (2.4% of NAV as of 31/3/2013)

More M&A activity - looks like a positive step for both companies.

hxxp://www.marketwire.com/press-release/mega-uranium-rockgate-capital-announce-proposed-merger-create-diversified-uranium-company-tsx-mga-1799111.htm
dyor etc..

[strollingmolby] 05/6/2013 15:00

Could well be bottoming, though as ever the price is linked to the price of uranium and an unknown quantum of discount to NAV.

The results issued today contain cautious optimism re news from Russia and Japan - so we shall see.

[defcon3] 01/6/2013 13:37

Any thoughts as to whether this is the bottom here?

[energiser01] 28/5/2013 17:18

Update Silex

GCL did have a holding at one point, not sure if its still in the portfolio.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/43518/silex-systems-looks-to-bank-15m-after-success-at-global-laser-enrichments-facility-in-wilmington-43518.html

dyor etc..

[tonsil] 08/5/2013 11:04

There is a thorough review of the U market over on seeking alpha titled "Uranium's dirty little secret". It is very long but well worth reading for an understanding of where we are in the price cycle.

[energiser01] 01/5/2013 16:57

Update Cameco. 2nd largest trust holding @ 11.2% at the end of march 13.

Results as expected. share price reaction muted, bit like the market generally.

Full release @

Cameco reports first quarter financial results
SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN--(Marketwired - May 1, 2013) -

•strong first quarter production
•first quarter financial results as expected
•at Cigar Lake, continued progress towards first production in mid-2013
•completed the acquisition of NUKEM Energy GmbH
•the government of Saskatchewan announced changes to the provincial royalty system to encourage continued investment in Saskatchewan's uranium mining industry
Cameco (TSX:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ) today reported its consolidated financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2013 in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

"Our results this quarter are consistent with what we had projected," said Tim Gitzel, president and CEO. "Deliveries from our uranium segment and revenue from Bruce Power were low, and resulted in lower net earnings.

"We remain on track with our annual outlook, and have increased our focus on streamlining and efficiency in order to remain competitive in today's uncertain environment.

"We are confident in the future growth for the industry, but also know the importance of being responsive to current market conditions by taking action today to remain a profitable, low cost producer for years to come."

dyor etc...