Gdx A Discussion Threads

[lovegod2] 17/4/2024 11:06

Gold looking at $3000 now !

[cfro] 10/7/2019 15:11

I have a small handful of Gold funds i like but GDX is one i like the most.

These hold some top quality Gold miners with the likes of Barrick etc but two of my favourite current picks Agnico-eagle and Kirkland Lake.

[lovegod2] 22/6/2019 11:09

take off started

[commander t] 16/1/2016 03:11

Apr2015 the price of the GDX was about $20. I do keep an eye on the GDX. I don't have confirming signals to buy just yet, but at around $13, I would agree we are getting closer now to a floor.

One of the signals is the DOW/GOLD ratio making a head fake turn like it did in 1975

Chart hxxp://www.investmenttools.com/images/wfut/metals/dow_gold.gif

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 07/4/2015 14:50

Ok that's me in this and GDXJ for £10k each in the SIPP on a 3-5 year horizon. These funds whilst slightly off the floor in price are still in ones view pretty low. Let's see what happens.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 21/3/2015 11:51

Surprised that nobody visits the GDX and GDXJ threads actually.
Must be near all time BUY levels now for anyone who is a contrarian.

[energyi] 04/7/2012 11:12

Checkout the charts on these ??

( GDX COMPONENTS- Top 12? )
All :

GDX : MktV. Gold Miners : $46.45 : $ 8.51bn : pe-N/A--, yield-0.32%

=== : July 07, 2012 --- :
--- : (smaller co's)

GFI : Gold Fields Ltd.- : $12.77 : $ 9.24bn : pe-10.60, yield-4.74%


IAG : Iamgold Corp.---- : $12.25 : $ 4.61bn : pe-06.30, yield-2.04%


AUQ : AuRico Gold Inc.- : $ 8.46 : $ 2.38bn : pe-11.90, yield-N/A--


PAAS: Pan Amer. Silver- : $16.79 : $ 2.58bn : pe-05.90, yield-0.89%


AG- : First Majestic Slv: $15.50 : $ 1.64bn : pe-15.80, yield-N/A--


HL- : Hecla Mining Co.- : $ 4.94 : $ 1.41bn : pe-12.40, yield-1.82%


SSRI: Silver Standard Rs: $12.02 : $ 971.mn : pe-14.70, yield-N/A--

[energyi] 05/4/2012 06:12

Large st Positions :at 11/30 2011 = pct. ASA $28.86 11/30 / 04/04 $Valuation : chg.
===== ============= == US $
ABX : Barrick Gold--- : 66.10 Mn: 10.53 % : 1,250 k 52.88 / 41.31 51.638 Mn: -21.88%
GG- : Goldcorp Inc.-- : 58.11 Mn : 9.26 % : 1,082 k 53.69 / 41.17 44.559 Mn: -23.32%
ncmgy Newcrest Mng--- : 56.98 Mn : 9.08 % : 1,565 k 36.41 / 28.68 44.883 Mn: -21.23%
GOLD: Randgold Res--- : 52.88 Mn : 8.42 % : : 495 k 106.9 / 81.31 40.218 Mn: -23.95%
agppy AngloAmer. Plat.: 39.21 Mn : 6.25 % : 3,510 k 11.17 / 10.98 38.543 Mn: -1.70%
AU- : AngloGold Ashanti 38.04 Mn : 6.06 % : : 793 k 47.96 / 34.35 27.245 Mn: -28.38%
NEM : Newmont Mng. –- : 35.84 Mn : 5.71 % : : 520 k 68.88 / 48.53 25.251 Mn: -29.54%
BVN : Cia Buenaventura: 35.58 Mn : 5.67 % : : 909 k 39.15 / 39.79 36.162 Mn: 1.63%
impuy Impala Platinum : 27.98 Mn : 4.46 % : 1,329 k 21.05 / 18.72 24.883 Mn: -11.07%
GFI : Goldfields Corp : 27.60 Mn : 4.40 % : 1,629 k 16.94 / 12.80 20.855 Mn: -24.44%
AEM : Agnico-Eagle Mn : 21.31 Mn : 3.40 % : : 475 k 44.88 / 32.63 15.493 Mn: -27.30%
Top10 Positions----- : 459.63 Mn : 73.24 %: ----- - ===== / ===== 369.73 Mn: -19.56%
Other Positions----- : 168.10 Mn : 26.78 %: ----- - ===== / ===== 135.22 Mn: -19.56%
TOTAL Valuation ---- : 627.73 Mn : 100.0 %: 19.29 m 32.54 / 26.18 504.95 Mn: -19.56%
%Disc -11.32 $28.86 ====================== ======== 28.86 / 23.83 -8.97 % -17.43%
compare:
GLD : Gold metal etf : 170.13 == : 17.0% ======== 170.13 / 157.21 15.2% ----- -7.59%
HUI : Gold Bugs index: 584.78 == : 4.94% ======== 584.78 / 445.27 5.35% ---- -23.86%
GDX : Gold stock etf : $60.41 == : 47.8% ======== $60.41 / $46.71 51.0% ---- -22.69%
GDXJ: Jr. Gold stocks: $30.04 == : 96.1% ======== $30.04 / $22.83 104.4% --- -24.00%

[hectorp] 02/2/2010 17:41

Long GDX from last THursday.

[hectorp] 24/9/2009 19:19

that budget was nothing , e!

[energyi] 07/2/2008 12:37

BEARISH, at least a bit - is Mike Swanson...

I'm growing more concerned about gold stocks. Last Friday I got stopped out of my gold stock positions, as reported in WSW Power Investor, and today gold is trading under $15 an ounce. Many gold stocks are going to gap down and actually be in the negative from where they opened up at on the January bottom. At the moment gold stocks are very oversold on a 60 minute chart. They also are trading on their lower 10-day bollinger band, which is an important support area. Support on the XAU is currently at 179. If the XAU can close above this level today then gold stocks will be set to bounce over the next week. We should then see the XAU bounce back up to the 188-190 area. However, if the XAU closes below 179 then you can expect a drop to the 170-174 area.

I'm hopeful that gold stocks can bounce here, because the broad market should find a new footing today or tomorrow morning.

I'm long-term bullish on gold stocks, but it appears to me that they are eventually going to have get in trouble with the rest of the market. Once this bear rally in the broad market ends I expect gold stocks to correct hard - harder than the rest of the market. I see them falling hard in the spring, and making a new bottom in the summer. At some point gold stocks will break away from the broad market and have a massive rally, but this doesn't look like it is going to happen over the next few months. Perhaps in the Fall or in the 4th quarter, but right now all signs point to them having a big correction in the 2nd quarter.

. .
What this means is that in the commodity complex leadership narrowed to only gold and silver stocks. Gold was the only commodity still making new 52-week highs in January. The other commodities have looked weak for weeks and appear poised to correct over the next few months. If they do it looks like they will take gold and gold stocks down with them for a temporary 3-6 month correction.

At the moment I think the broad market can hold commodities and gold stocks together for the next 4-6 weeks. But once the broad market tops I expect to see a brutal correction in commodities and gold stocks.

/see:

[energyi] 05/2/2008 20:16

President Bush will propose a budget this week - one with the biggest hole ever, a deficit of $410 billion. And if federal finances follow the pattern of the most recent recessionary period...this hole will deepen into the world's first $1 trillion government deficit
===

How did such a lucky, rich, productive people come to this?

Occasionally, in what is basically a free-market system, a whole class of people gets the wrong idea. This is what happened in America (and elsewhere...mostly in the Anglo-Saxon economies) in the last quarter-century. They thought capitalism would make them rich, so they spent as if they already were rich. They thought jobs and credit would always be plentiful, so they saw no need to save money. Their leaders said they would prevent anything from going wrong...and the poor saps trusted them.

Instead of preventing things from going wrong with capitalism, the feds were distorting it so as to guarantee problems. A free economy, as opposed to a controlled, centrally planned Soviet-style economy, is one in which prices are set by free markets. But the feds insist on controlling the most important price of all - the price of money. They control both the quantity of money, thereby indirectly influencing the value of it; they control banking rules, which make credit relatively harder or easier to get; and they control the rate at which the central banks lends to its members, thereby setting the foundations for the whole credit structure.

After Paul Volcker left the Fed in '86, America's central bank began misleading the masses. Its low rates and easy lending policies - combined with the Bush administration's reckless spending...and Asian's reckless saving (in dollars!)...all conspired to lead the lumpenhouseholder astray. He thought he had more money than he really had. He spent more than he really should have. He saved less than he needed to. And he got what people who do those sorts of things get: a financial setback.

'But why did his wages fall?' you might still want to know.

Well, the easy answer is that all that 'stimulus' offered by the feds had quite an effect - mostly in Asia. Thanks to globalization...and Internet communications...it was easier than ever for all those Asians, finally free from communist central planning, to compete. Who were they competing with? The low...and then middle...wage earner in America. Naturally, they dragged down the cost of low- and medium-skilled labor.

'But in Europe, wages went up,' you protest.

Yes, they did...slightly. The standard explanation is that Europe was able to maintain wage growth by investing heavily in new capital equipment and training. European economies are 'high cost' economies, where employers can't afford low-productivity jobs, because the social charges are too great. Instead, they aim for high-productivity, high-skill jobs, where the Asians haven't been able to compete - yet. Whether this explanation is correct, we don't know. It certainly sounds plausible. In any event, Europe has been able to keep wages high...and, until recently, has managed to maintain a comfortable trade balance with Asia.

/more:

[energyi] 24/12/2007 01:03

(Alex Hamilton): HUI/Gold Ratio Trends 2

Everything else being equal, based on this bull so far we should expect gold stocks to not be radically outperforming gold almost 2/3rds of the time. In reality gold-stock traders are far less patient. If gold rises in a single trading day, but gold stocks don't dutifully leverage this gain instantly, traders get worried and start spinning bearish theories. This is very irrational from a long-term perspective though.

The 1/3rd of the time when gold stocks radically outperform gold is cyclical in nature and readily apparent in the HUI/Gold Ratio. This ratio tends to surge up to major interim highs on gold-stock outperformance. This happens when the HUI is powering higher in massive uplegs. (For reference, the raw HUI is charted above in red off the left axis.) But after these huge HUI uplegs, the HGR drifts sideways for a season. These drifts are just as important as the surges.

Whenever gold stocks rocket to new bull highs, traders get uncomfortable. They wonder if the bull is over and if such lofty prices are sustainable. So gold stocks enter high consolidations after massive HUI uplegs. This trading sideways not only bleeds off the excess greed rampant at the preceding upleg top, but it gives traders time to acclimate to new high prices. Drifts build the technical base off of which the next surge eventually launches.



As this chart shows, over time this surge-drift pattern has created a secular uptrend in the HUI/Gold Ratio. With the exception of an impressive surge above this uptrend in late 2003/early 2004, the HGR has been very comfortable within this secular support and resistance channel for six years now. This rock-solid uptrend has huge implications for gold-stock investors and speculators today.

/more:

[energyi] 02/10/2007 17:21

GDX has fallen sharply with the $20 drop in Gold
But is now on key support



If if holds today's lows, GDX should soon retest the highs again.
Might that be a last hurrah for awhile? maybe

[energyi] 18/9/2007 12:48

ADAM HAMILTON's BULLISH VIEW
==============

If major low 7 of August 16th, 300 on the HUI, holds, then it marks the start of the next HUI upleg. Assuming this coming upleg 8 is merely average, we can expect a rally in the neighborhood of 94%. This yields a potential HUI target for major high 8 around 580! Anyone who owns quality gold and silver miners and explorers would see tremendous gains, doubles or higher, by the time the HUI approached these levels.

And if upleg 8 proves to be another massive upleg in the surge stage of the next surge-drift fractal, then the upleg target is even more impressive. With 136% average gains in massive uplegs, the HUI target off the major low 7 exceeds 700! And with all uplegs tending to run 8 months on average, such a doubling or tripling of quality PM stocks could very well happen before next summer!

Now I know this sounds ridiculously optimistic, but regardless it is indeed what the bull-to-date precedent of HUI upleg cycles suggests is possible. And based merely on technicals alone, possible is as far as we can take this analysis. But when today's fundamentals for the HUI's primary driver of gold are also considered, I suspect the odds for an imminent massive HUI upleg move from possible to probable.

With $700 gold again, excitement is building for this long-neglected metal even outside of the usual contrarian circles. Gold fundamentals remain overwhelmingly bullish, with world demand growth far outstripping supply growth. On top of this, we are entering the most bullish time of the year for gold. In autumn and winter huge seasonal gold buying out of Asia tends to drive powerful gold rallies.

This is great news that should drive the HUI considerably higher, but there is an even bigger development that has the potential to ignite this new gold upleg like rocket fuel. The US Dollar Index has now fallen under critical support at 80 and is approaching new all-time lows! Lower interest rates in the US will drive even more dollar selling, but the Fed has no choice since the stock markets, bond markets, and politicians are all pressuring it to cut rates.

So as the US dollar enters uncharted territory, dollar selling by foreign investors ranging from individuals to central banks should accelerate considerably. Some of this flight capital will naturally migrate into the ironclad safety of gold, the only currency that has survived all of human history. The current dollar slide is so technically ominous and important that it could very well drive the biggest gold upleg of this entire bull.

And while mainstream commentators will claim $700+ gold is really expensive, this isn't really true in light of history. If you adjust the gold price for inflation by using the watered-down CPI, gold's real 1980 highs in today's 2007 dollars are now near $2300 per ounce. So going north of $700 or even $850 today isn't a big deal and is highly likely given gold's fundamentals and the dollar's troubles.

/more Zeal:

[shavian] 16/9/2007 17:58

The breakout's gone far enough, I think we'll get a brief return to the 200-day MA before making further progress. Unless the Northern Rock syndrome goes global, that is...

[energyi] 05/9/2007 16:39

(quote from GEI (BP) #23215, date: Sep 5 2007, 03:16 PM):
"By decoupling you mean gold I presume. because Yen up stocks down is the normal correlation. I doubt that gold will decouple from the stock market, ever"

DrB:
Huh? Dont be silly, the decoupling has happened several times, and may be about to happen again.

In practice, all this means is that the GDX-to-SPY ratio needs to breakout above the recent trading range.

Here's a 3 year chart, showin the lat breakout of two years ago:
(latest level is 45.8%- threatening a NEW BREAKOUT, as early as today!)

[energyi] 05/9/2007 16:36

(quote from GEI (BP) #23215, date: Sep 5 2007, 03:16 PM):
"By decoupling you mean gold I presume. because Yen up stocks down is the normal correlation. I doubt that gold will decouple from the stock market, ever"

DrB:
Huh? Dont be silly, the decoupling has happened several times, and may be about to happen again.

In practice, all this means is that the GDX-to-SPY ratio needs to breakout above the recent trading range.

Here's a 3 year chart, showin the lat breakout of two years ago:
(latest level is 45.8%- threatening a NEW BREAKOUT, as early as today!)

[energyi] 30/8/2007 16:25

which stocks should I include here?

--- RGLD ......... : --- HMY ......... : --- IAG ......... : --- EGO ......... : --- GSS ......... :
4192,................ : 2331, ............... : 49597, .......... : 48556, ............ : 10752, .......... :


..

[energyi] 23/8/2007 12:49

Today's $5 jump in Gold looks rather important to me:






Gold (GBS.L), the london-traded ETF


Last thursday's big drop has now been retraced.
However, the volume in London so far is very light.
The $5 price gain will need to hold, and WITH VOLUME, in NY trading.