Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 03/3/2021 12:37

Strongly recommend you all attend the ShareSoc event and ask the question about valuations

[chucko1] 03/3/2021 11:34

20% would imply about 150bps of yield widening. Spreads to Gilts on just about all debt asset classes have been tightening, so perhaps you can comment on that, brwo349?

[stewart64] 03/3/2021 11:06

These assets should be fairly easy to assess value wise. Yoo might get a 20% discount on a REIT or direct equity. Debt isn't the same.

[brwo349] 03/3/2021 10:59

I think it just looks cheap because it has fallen 15% but its priced at its net assets value so it can fall another 20% easily

[chucko1] 03/3/2021 10:52

I do love a bit of capitulation!! Time to add, as the news flow is not negative, to the best of my knowledge.

[stewart64] 03/3/2021 09:09

If I was a new investor at this price I would be filling my boots too, I'm too heavily invested to go further.

The downward price momentum seems to be self- fulfilling at the moment. I note on other forums people are capitulating, not because there is any bad news attaching but in the face of the relentless fall. At some stage there will be no sellers left and it should spike back quickly.

[cwa1] 03/3/2021 08:39

Couldn't resist a 1/4 holding top up this morning at a little under 101p. It's not my will power that's in question, it's my won't power that is! That's enough for now however. Unless I change my mind :-)

[speedsgh] 02/3/2021 21:07

From latest quarterly Factsheet:
"At 31 December 2020, the Company was exposed to a diversified partially inflation protected portfolio of 50 investments with an unaudited valuation of £1.1 billion. The portfolio had a weight-adjusted average annualised yield of 8.1%, principal outstanding of £1.1 billion and an average life of 15 years."

PORTFOLIO BY AVERAGE LIFE
>30yrs - 10%
20-30yrs - 5%
10-20yrs - 38%
<10yrs - 47%
Average life - 15yrs

From 2020 Annual Report:
"A number of the Company’s investments (making up c.39% of the investment portfolio by value) have some form of inflation protection. This is structured as a direct link between the return and realised inflation (relevant to the supported living assets and certain renewables) and a principal indexation mechanism which increases the principal value of the Company’s loans outstanding by a share of realised inflation over a pre-determined strike level (typically 2.75‑3.00%)."

[donald pond] 02/3/2021 17:50

GCP are presenting at ShareSoc next week. Suggest you sign up and attend, I often host sharesoc events but not this one for reasons some of you may be able to work out. The events are structured as 30/40 minute presentations and then 20/30 minutes of questions and the manager, Phil Kent, will be able to answer any questions you have. The event is free, though of course I really recommend you sign up as a full ShareSoc member to help us in our work.

hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/events/sharesoc-webinar-with-gcp-infrastructure-investments-gcp-18-march-2021/

[swiss paul] 02/3/2021 17:43

have they done any share buy backs?

[stewart64] 02/3/2021 15:54

The average length of investment is 14 years ( that needs checking on?) and average yield 8%, so no great urgency to find rollover investments..they did put recent maturities into a windfarm stake in Kent offshore a' la Trig/ Greencoat.
I'm struggling to see why the nav has been written down as low as 102.7 when they have locked in yields ( as senior creditor) that are simply no longer available, not even close. In the bond market that should mean the nav rises.

Obvs the Market has reservations about something here though and price trends are hard to reverse.

[redsonning] 02/3/2021 14:20

CWA, you have a sensible strategy. Whilst no one can say where the bottom is, this is beginning to look pretty cheap - unless there is something we don't know about... The concern with GCP is whether it can still generate the necessary yields from its loans into the infrastructure market at a time of such low interest rates. On the other hand some investors are now getting concerned about possible inflationary pressures in due course. So there is a balance of factors being played through.
The previous declines in NAV are an indication of the difficulties GCP has had in achieving those yields, and they are the reason that GCP has had to reduce its future dividend target. All interesting stuff - but in summary your starting stake looks reasonably safe, although of course is never going to be spectacular.

[chucko1] 02/3/2021 13:44

SEQI currently on the low side owing to the 105p placing. Often a good time to get it.

[williamcooper104] 02/3/2021 13:29

It does look a little over done SEQI is a good comp and is yielding 5.9

[cwa1] 02/3/2021 13:24

Many thanks for all the helpful comments!

Completely on my OWN recognisance, I've taken a handful at almost 101.25p FWIW. If I were a betting man I would suspect that it has further to fall yet and have therefore kept plenty of powder dry for top ups if required. If I don't get all I want then, shrug, too bad, never mind.

Good fortune to one and all here

[panos_berks] 02/3/2021 12:49

At the current 1,016 buy price it's 7% (6.99 to be precise).
Question is is this the bottom. Its already a penny below declared NAV if not more

[rik shaw] 02/3/2021 12:49

6.9% based on 7p per annum

[williamcooper104] 02/3/2021 12:41

What's the yield now post the cut

[panshanger1] 02/3/2021 12:28

CWAI've been watching this with a view to a top up and also NESF ( where I am not a holder ) Think the sector generally is out of favour ATM when you look at Infrastructure / renewable funds and I hold a few ! ( for diversification)One thing is clear though the premiums they are trading at are generally at a very attractive level given the dividends on offer

[speedsgh] 02/3/2021 12:26

Now trading at a very rare discount to last published NAV of 102.7p as at 31/12/20.



Recent NAV history:

102.71p as at 31/12/20
103.99p as at 30/9/20
107.73p as at 30/6/20
109.83p as at 31/3/20
109.58p as at 31/12/19
111.66p as at 30/9/19
112.54p as at 30/3/19
112.49p as at 28/9/18
112.39p as at 29/3/18
110.57p as at 29/9/17
110.30p as at 31/3/17
109.67p as at 30/9/16
107.68p as at 31/3/16

[chucko1] 02/3/2021 12:02

No clue whatsoever if now is the right time. Absolutely no shred whatsoever.

But I must, according to your definition, be a total coward! But I am adding slowly having sold out many times as a keen seller dominates the airwaves. With high dividends, this strategy has fared well on this particular stock.

Sharesoc have a presentation on GCP in 2 weeks or so. Check it out.

[cwa1] 02/3/2021 10:59

Morning All

I'm not a holder at the moment but getting interested at these levels. Slightly concerned by the near continuous selling and the price drifting off so unremittingly of late...

So it's all about greed and fear(of missing out),I suppose.

I might take the coward's way out and take a starter holding just now and gently increase it if it falls further :-)

Anyone prepared to put their 50p worth as to whether NOW is the time, or it is best to wait until the trend has played out?

Interested to hear anyone's take on it

[stewart64] 25/2/2021 17:23

First time GCP has had 6 consecutive closes under 105p since the initial launch in 2010. Earlier this month we had a run of five and ( surprisingly) just five during the March Covid crash last year.