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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gcp Infrastructure Investments Limited LSE:GCP London Ordinary Share JE00B6173J15 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.60 0.56% 108.00 107.60 107.80 108.40 107.20 107.60 1,247,430 16:35:28
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.0 3.9 -0.1 - 953

Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 276 to 300 of 350 messages
Chat Pages: 14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
11/6/2021
14:12
Relentless downward drift Getting close to 52 week low now
panshanger1
10/6/2021
23:22
First bought this stock back in 2014 and whilst I'm still up on a total return basis I'm starting to lose patience. The only ones making any real money are the non execs who, apart from one, own no shares and are very handsomely paid. The chairman has been on the board for eleven years, owns no shares and earned 78k. Another director also on the board for eleven years owning no shares and on £65k. Another two directors on the board for six years and another for seven, although he is the one with the shareholding (probably why he has the board seat). One final director on the board for two years. I think it is time some of these longstanding directors stand down unless they can clearly demonstrate why they are worth the high remuneration.
ec2
10/6/2021
17:46
Higher tax rates shouldn't impact on the value of a loan (there are some restrictions now on tax deductibility of interest but that shouldn't bite here) However on a fixed life project there's only a maximum amount of cash available over the project life and that's reduced if tax rates are higher (you deduct the interest but not debt repayments) and thus the amount of debt supported is less
williamcooper104
10/6/2021
17:41
And the tax rise reduction in NAV confused me - until I remembered that a lot of their positions are very junior loans so the fixed life project company's lent to will have less cashflow to redeem debt with
williamcooper104
10/6/2021
17:38
Yes it does seem uniquely toxic
williamcooper104
10/6/2021
15:54
@swisspaul- The current NAV is reached by forecasting future cash flows and discounting them to the present (Google "discounted cash flow" for an understanding of the calculation). So higher corporation tax, for example, will mean the future cash flows are less than they were previously forecast to be, so the DCF calculation from last year has to be revised.
apollocreed1
10/6/2021
15:51
I suspect they "kitchen-sinked" this report and the NAV is reflecting the worst case scenario of declining long-term power prices and rising corporation tax. I'm still puzzled as to why a debt-company is exposed to declining power prices -don't the operators of renewable infrastructure have to repay their debts regardless of the price at which they sell their power?
apollocreed1
10/6/2021
12:31
Have they started to stash the cash as a result of this? It has been a challenging six months for the Company, principally driven by revisions to long-term valuation assumptions. The Company's income and net asset value have been impacted by reduced valuations resulting from the announcement of an increase in the corporation tax rate from 19% to 25% from 2023, reduced long-term electricity price forecasts and lower OBR inflation forecasts published in the period. As a result, the Company generated income of £11.2 million and profit of £3.8 million. The net asset value reduced by 3.2 pence per share and the Company's total shareholder return1 was -8.8% for the period. How can a previous 6 months valuation be reduced due to something that is going to happen next year? Can someone educate me please. Yes I agree Biomass is not the answer - if domestic potentially but not commercially
swiss paul
25/5/2021
22:09
There seems to be trouble almost wherever biomass is part of an investment portfolio.
chucko1
25/5/2021
22:06
Over the expensive cost of such projects and questionable green credentials . Tbh I was going to edit that out, as there is always noise around Biomass and stick to the point on the chart. hxxps://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-contentious-plans-to-remove-emissions-could-actually-increase-them-report-warns-12316090
stewart64
25/5/2021
21:39
What was the story on biomass?
chucko1
25/5/2021
21:21
Biomass under attack again this week in the news ( 10% of portfolio). Also we have the post ex Dividend dip to deal with, which tends to hit lows around the following month..21st December...103.8. 5th March...97.0. Not boding well for June, chart patterns not set in stone though.
stewart64
18/5/2021
10:22
Yes, thanks for comments on leveraged debt. I note that green tech projects react more significantly (read adversely) to upward interest rate moves than brown tech. I, too, took the divi and sold.
ptolemy
14/5/2021
11:59
Thanks for recent postings much appreciated
panshanger1
14/5/2021
11:14
Thanks for the link. Note they have also published a couple of answers to questions that they didn't have time for in the Q&A section of the presentation... HTTPS://quoteddata.com/research/quoteddatas-spring-webinar-series-specialist-income-playback/ Answers to the questions from Philip Kent – You recently agreed a new RCF. How has this impacted your overall cost of debt? And how geared is the portfolio? The recent RCF saw a slight increase in margin (190 bps to 200 bps) and base reference changed from LIBOR to SONIA in anticipation of the cessation of LIBOR at the end of this year. We believe the increase in margin is reflective of an increased cost across the market of this type of debt. The RCF capacity is £165m and this is materially fully drawn at the current time. Debt across the portfolio varies depending on sector. There is a summary of this on pp 35 of the annual report. What does your investment pipeline look like? And what impact do you think there might be on the portfolio’s yield from further acquisitions? The pipeline is currently as strong as it has been in recent years. We are actively reviewing c. £150m of opportunities at various stages. There are both: (i) a number of investment opportunities in existing assets; and (ii) new investments in existing asset classes (principally anaerobic digestion and biomass) and some new areas. We are seeing new public sector support emerging – such as the Green Gas Support Scheme which is due to be launched later this year, that we expect will drive further pipeline opportunities.
speedsgh
14/5/2021
09:38
This weeks presentation is now available online: hTTps://quoteddata.com/gcp-11/
rik shaw
12/5/2021
21:58
Thanks for that - it clarifies what I'd suspected At least with TRIG you get the possible upside along with the downside power price risk Power prices could easily go either way in that the demand for power is unprecedented due to electric vehicles but equally there's never been more spent in new generation and the cost of renewables and so eventually the cost of power will keep falling I prefer SEQI for infra debt and HICL/BBGI for boring but safe infra equity
williamcooper104
12/5/2021
21:05
Hi, I too attended the presentation. I put my question in before they started and pleased to say that they did answer it as some of you heard. I am disappointed that they had not flagged more clearly that the older loans are compromised due to an insufficient equity cushion and the fall in the long term power price forecast. Some of the older loans are also against assets with difficult operational issues such as biomass and anaerobic digestion. On page 20 of the last half year report there is a chart of NAV vs power prices which shows 6% of Nav lost per 10% of electricity price drop. I believe that this chart was new in that report indicating to me that they had previously thought that they had enough equity for the loans not to be affected by power price forecast downgrades. I guess we have taken most of the first 10% drop now and presumably it is a straight line down if there are further electricity price forecast downgrades. I therefore agree that it seems unlikely that the target income level can be maintained in the long run. The government will need electricity prices to be low in the future because in order meet CO2 objectives most houses/cars will need to be heated/powered by green electricity and people need to be able to afford it. A further concern of mine is given that GCP continually needs to reinvest as capital is returned from the amortising loans, the fund is also dependent on future opportunities being available which meet the target return level, however the returns from energy projects are highly uncertain. The risk reward profile of this fund is not what I thought and so I sold my complete holding after the presentation. I also hold TRIG (A bigger operation with 100% renewables rather than 60% in GCP infra) and suspect that the same issues will apply, though I believe TRIG holds the whole project capital rather than debt only.
jonathan49
12/5/2021
13:52
They should have made it a bit clearer why electricity prices affect nav earlier imo. Either they were adjustable loans or all the debtors were not premium. Appears to be the latter.
stewart64
12/5/2021
13:02
Don't see how they can get their historic yields out of senior debt, unless they apply a lot of leverage to juice the return
williamcooper104
12/5/2021
12:53
Interesting presentation this morning. Hopefully it will be posted online in due course. In terms of price risk apparently they have some subordinated loans from a few years back in which the equity cushions, which should protect the loans, are no longer there, so they have marked down the NAV on these loans. They claim to target senior debt these days for their higher risk investments to ensure a better buffer.
rik shaw
11/5/2021
11:21
Bit of a falling knife again whence fundamentals go out of the window. Chart is getting very predictive with falls running into and following the ex dividend. October 117 to December 104, January 111 to March 97, April 105 to ?
stewart64
10/5/2021
14:56
Jonathan49, would be grateful if you could report back on your findings. Thanks.
stewart64
10/5/2021
14:10
Many thanks, have signed up. I am not sure the loans are necessarily risky in terms of default so long as there is a decent equity cushion, just that coupons vary with power price which does of course reduce risk for the equity holders. Hopefully the seminar might answer it.
jonathan49
10/5/2021
11:35
For those existing/prospective shareholders that have lingering questions/doubts, the QuotedData Specialist Income webinar this Weds would be the perfect opportunity to find out more. Phillip Kent (director of Gravis & lead fund adviser to GCP Infra) is presenting for approx 40mins from 09:30 and those registered can submit questions in advance via email (and possibly online during the webinar?). HTTPS://quoteddata.com/events/quoteddatas-spring-webinar-series/
speedsgh
Chat Pages: 14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  Older
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