Gcp Infrastructure Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 24/10/2024 06:45

GCP NAV:

105.22p as at 30/9/24
107.58p as at 30/6/24
107.62p as at 31/3/24
109.84p as at 31/12/23
109.79p as at 30/9/23
110.02p as at 30/6/23
112.24p as at 31/3/23
113.59p as at 31/12/22
112.80p as at 30/9/22
114.31p as at 30/6/22
112.75p as at 31/3/22
107.18p as at 31/12/21
103.92p as at 30/9/21
102.20p as at 30/6/21
100.78p as at 31/3/21
102.71p as at 31/12/20
103.99p as at 30/9/20
107.73p as at 30/6/20
109.83p as at 31/3/20
109.58p as at 31/12/19
111.66p as at 30/9/19
112.35p as at 30/6/19
112.50p as at 31/3/19
112.69p as at 31/12/18
112.37p as at 30/9/18
113.21p as at 30/6/18
112.35p as at 31/3/18
112.28p as at 31/12/17
110.55p as at 30/9/17
109.99p as at 30/6/17
110.30p as at 31/3/17
110.80p as at 31/12/16
109.67p as at 30/9/16
107.73p as at 30/6/16
107.68p as at 31/3/16
107.90p as at 31/12/15
107.47p as at 30/9/15

[speedsgh] 24/10/2024 06:44

~ NAV down again to 105.22p (30/6/24: 107.58p)

~ NAV now at lowest level of the past 10 years (save for 15 month Covid blip)

~ Realisations to date of £31m against target of £150m announced in Dec 2023:
"The Company is in active due diligence and negotiations on disposals of material components of its investment portfolio and does not wish to risk such processes through publication of further detail on the constituent movements in the NAV since 30 June 2024. Further attribution of the NAV movements will be published as part of the Company's forthcoming annual report and accounts, due to be published in December."

~ "The Company's portfolio continues to perform materially in line with the Company's expectations." Probably reading too much into it, but use of the term 'materially' does not reassure.

~ Q4 dividend of 1.75p payable 29/11 (XD 31/10)

[foetus in your brain] 16/10/2024 10:05

Not as easy to wind this one up as a lot of the loans are 20 year plus. But if inflation stays low, NAV will rise as DCF rate drops and you'd expect strong demand for the dividend

[citytilidie] 16/10/2024 10:04

I just hope the return to shareholders is either a special dividend, or preferably a tender offer at the current NAV. I just don’t want a capital restructure, eg 11 new shares for every 13 held, or something similar

[jam62] 16/10/2024 09:44

Institutions will have noted the very rapid narrowing of the discount to asset value when its sister company, GABI, was the subject of an institutional vote to wind up the company.

If the current ridiculous discount to NAV does not soon start to come down rapidly, expect the same fate for this trust. I have observed that the share register of both companies have many of the same shareholders.

[hpcg] 16/10/2024 08:40

loglorry - See page 19 of the half year report. Some is planned, i.e. start up loans, and some not. Of the unplanned some is just a late payment. There is a breakdown in a table. As there are repayments of prior capitalised interest I'm not sweating it, certainly not compared with the discount.

[loglorry1] 16/10/2024 08:36

Inflation print generally quite good for REITs but GCP has pretty decent inflation protection on its loan book. The AR gives a good table of NAV sensitivity to inflation and so not sure low inflation is what we want for this particular REIT.

Regardless, its a good place for a lot of the cash returns we are seeing at the moment in my view.

[cc2014] 16/10/2024 08:33

imho this trust is incredibly difficult to unravel. It puts itself over as a renewable company but then on examination it's making loans to renewable companies, but further investigation suggests to me that actually some of those loans are to it's subsidiaries which it owns which appears to be a way to extract the cash from the subsidiaries. Some of the subsidiaries have there capital structure re-worked over and over as some of them look to have been bad investments in the past.

The proposition over the capitalised interest was always that the interest was capitalised as the projects were built out which makes sense but it seems to me some of it is still being capitalised after projects are completed suggesting to me that not every project runs smoothly and seems to make the yield look better than it is.


Franky I think it's full of risk that's very difficult to get a grip on. (unlike GABI where given enough time reading the accounts things did mostly make sense).

As you can tell I'm really not a fan but there's a price for everything. I have owned GCP in the past but I'm not incentivised by the price right now.

I suspect you will all do just fine from here. Basically if interest rates are going to fall just buy anything that's a bond proxy and wait and don't get too greedy over an exit price.

[loglorry1] 16/10/2024 08:16

I think it is decent and one of the safer places for new money as we get returns from things like EBOX. You have to be careful with all the adjustments though. It's a much more complex beast than a GABI or RECI if you ask me.

[loglorry1] 16/10/2024 08:07

@hpcg why did they capitalise the interest though? Could it be a sign of loan quality?

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/10/2024 07:58

Have bought more this morning too

Not long to wait now hopefully for the return of 50m in capital to shareholders (by end of 2024)
Plus a 9.4% yield and over 30% discount

Inflation down to 1.7% hopefully opens the door wider for a rate cut on Nov 7th

[hpcg] 16/10/2024 07:25

last half 12 out of 44 interest revenue was capitalised. If that is ultimately repaid, or prior to that the accumulated debt pays its interest then there is more breathing room.

[foetus in your brain] 16/10/2024 07:15

I can't quite remember the details but the cover has always been thin but they've managed to maintain it for a decade (ignoring the drop from 7.5 to 7). The default rate is very low, but sometimes payments are missed and rolled up, but it is basically a debt fund that pays out all it gets back. We are awaiting news on a disposal though. Can't be long

[loglorry1] 16/10/2024 06:52

Right, on a very basic level it looks like interest income is around 32m and the dividend is 31m (per half year). But there are IM charges of 0.9% of NAV so around 4m a half year and other costs like RCF interest.

I hold a few and have been buying but perhaps the cover is a bit skinny.

[williamcooper104] 15/10/2024 22:37

From memory it was covered by net investment income but that that included a fair bit of non cash income

[loglorry1] 15/10/2024 18:10

Is the divi covered by loan interest received minus (RCF interest + IM fees and other costs to run the show) ?

I've been staring at accounts for a while but I'm too thick to work it out!

[orinocor] 10/10/2024 09:38

I've just added at under 76p. I'll be getting about 10% of that back from the capital return + dividend before the end of the year.

[speedsgh] 06/9/2024 09:04

Barring anything exceptional, most likely to get a post-year end update towards end of Oct (last yr 23 Oct) before release of final results in Dec.

[sharpedge7] 06/9/2024 07:03

Yeah - I’m guessing sticky inflation in UK the cause? US Fed should cut their rates on 17th even if MPC doesn’t on 9th (expect Nov more likely from them) so you’d think that might help. Plus the eq market wobbles. Who knows!Think the basic yield is c9% again and there is still the stated capital return although you’d that should be in the price? An update on the latter be helpful Id say.

[panshanger1] 05/9/2024 09:01

This has been drifting back Likely to get some sort of update before the finals ?

[jam62] 27/8/2024 08:20

The company’s sister company, GCP Asset Backed, facilitated its return of capital by way of compulsory redemption of share capital on a pro rata basis. This should result in a circa 5.7p payment per share with shareholders ending up with a commensurately reduced shareholding.

[orinocor] 26/8/2024 21:17

Regarding the mooted £50 million capital return towards the end of the year, is that likely to be a tender offer?

[badtime] 12/8/2024 15:53

Thanks for posting that

[spangle93] 12/8/2024 08:03

Update on GCP from quoted data


2024 brought an improving economic outlook, the prospect of a reversal in interest rate policy, and – for GCP’s shareholders – a highly attractive dividend yield, solid portfolio execution, and the introduction of a capital recycling programme (where the adviser looks to realise existing assets to fund capital returns and new investment).

So far, this programme has allowed the company to significantly reduce leverage and begin returning capital to shareholders. It has also enabled GCP to start the process of restructuring the portfolio to take advantage of an increasingly attractive investment environment, reduce its exposure to merchant power prices (electricity sold into wholesale markets rather than at fixed prices), and exit some of its legacy positions.

.. Whilst the company’s shares continue to trade at a stubborn discount to net asset value (NAV) of 26%, its fortunes look much more promising.

[return_of_the_apeman] 08/8/2024 14:44

X-div today