Gb Share Discussion Threads

[barnesian] 06/6/2019 15:15

I think best opportunity was between 1pm and 2pm this afternoon. That price may never be available again!

[gswredland] 06/6/2019 14:57

Me too tomax

[lomax99] 06/6/2019 12:42

In here, and sitting on a decent gain, but biding my time for an opportunity to top up.

[barnesian] 06/6/2019 07:31

Topped up at 585

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 15:36

Buying opportunity. Sorry for the accidental double posting. Nevertheless this is a great buying opportunity. Perhaps to double your stake and tuck it away for a year or two :) This reminds me very much of Allocate Software which was in the sweet spot of nurse rostering to save agency costs. Similar strategy, similar management approach. Eventually bought out at a big premium. GBG is in an even sweeter spot. Topping up more, even though I'm heavily invested in this share.

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 15:36

Buying opportunity.

[thefartingcommie] 05/6/2019 15:00

fwiw.... gap to fill...550-567

[sweenoid] 05/6/2019 12:33

Very pleased with the presentation and prospects, great organic growth, and major acquisitions will drive this business on. My original intent here was to trade this company, I am happy now to maintain my investment and have increased my holding today by another 10,000 odd and looking forward to the future. Toodly pip S

[hotfinance14] 05/6/2019 11:50

Barn..the auction final price will be interesting.

[wolansm] 05/6/2019 11:49

I just take my chances as they come hot

[hotfinance14] 05/6/2019 11:35

Good to see you are still here Wol. I expected a significant increase in the share price today but this has not come to fruition.

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 11:34

Very interesting WebCast including Q&A. My notes: 1. Customer synergies already coming through 2. 12 acquisitions already made. Priority now is paying down debt and investing in sales, marketing and technology before further acquisitions. 3. This is an early stage market. Anticipate 10-12% organic growth plus impact of acquisitions. 4. Growth comes 2/3rds from existing customers, 1/3rd from new customers. However strategic focus is on new customers. This is a "land grab". 5. Location, Identitiy and fraud segments will gradually merge over time into a comprehensive solution. 6. Little seasonality 7. Two main types of competition. a) Big credit driven companies who are multi-domestic. b) Smaller point solution companies. GBG can beat either with their reach and integration. Overall very impressive. They seem to be on top of their game in a fast growing high margin business. Sooner or later there will be an auction for them.

[wolansm] 05/6/2019 11:08

Still here hot but slowly slowly a few k at a time out, there is value elsewhere for example Hurricane from around 30p to current 59p, all eggs in one basket etc etc, whoooshs are getting smaller and smaller..... don't get me wrong I still luv these

[eaglebeagle] 05/6/2019 10:59

So true Barnesian. Someone should tell VISA, Mastercard, PayPal that they should buy these guys today. There whole business models are based on authentication and GBG can enable new payment rivals , or set existing payment schemes up for the next 20 years. All depends if they are independent or owned.

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 10:38

The £23m FCF is growing at a rate of at least 10% pa. With a discount rate of say 12% that leads to a value of 50xFCF. Change the assumptions a bit and you can justify any value you choose. The real value is what people are prepared to pay, including an acquirer.

[pj0077] 05/6/2019 09:51

Sorry to rain on your parade, but the re-rating has already occurred. The next change in rating will be a de-rating. Check out the valuation - it's well ahead of the fundamentals.

[pj0077] 05/6/2019 09:48

Net cash flow of £23million. What's the right valuation for that? A generous 20x multiple would be £460million. Yet the company appears to be valued at £1200million (!) A clear case of asymmetric downside risk.

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 09:33

GBG have a very healthy widely based free cash flow. It is very CAPEX light, so even after CAPEX and tax, the net cash flow is over £23m compared with dividend payout of just over £4m. It will be able to rapidly pay down debt, or finance more acquisitions and also finance a growing dividend policy. It is in a good place.

[hotfinance14] 05/6/2019 09:01

I expect we will have a re-rating soon which should move the share price further north.

[togglebrush] 05/6/2019 08:52

Market reaction to Results, so far, looks promising

[chasbas] 05/6/2019 07:20

PJ0077 Suggest you look at page 10 of the announcement stating GBG's KPIs with definitions on previous page. You pays your money...I like the jump in Deferred income to £28.3m which may underpin management's confidence in future organic revenue growth

[barnesian] 05/6/2019 07:06

"PBT up only £1.3million (+10%). Confusing" No not really. This is after depreciation of acquired intangibles and one-off acquisition costs. Adjusted profit gives a more useful picture.

[hotfinance14] 05/6/2019 07:03

The GBG webcast regarding the results will be available at midday today.