If you email our CFO i am sure he will explain it.He has always replied to my queries.
Email address is on the website. |
That may explain some of my confusion but I haven't seen where the board were outlooking for revenue growth skewed so heavily to H2. The modest 8% growth in H2 is not my figure, I read it somewhere in a board statement or an analyst report.
Even if revenue does jump like that I still do not understand how a consensus adj op profit of £60M translates to an adj eps of 15p. |
Hey MarktimeNot certain if this will help but GBG's performance is not linear. Turnover is heavily skewed to last half (more specifically last quarter). This might explain the £10m difference in your calcs. Previous years, the split on total revenue between H1 and H2 has been circa 45% : 55%.The last quarter performance hockey stick effect is (if I remember correctly) a very historic issue linked to large public sector accounts renewing in the March month. |
Looking for rainbows here, but recent news of potential bid for Onfido (GBG competitor) and view of the FinTech space makes interesting reading.https://sifted.eu/articles/uk-fintech-onfido-acqusition-talks-news |
Thank you, here is the link for future reference ...
Although I have to say it doesn't add up:
1) Total voting rights eg shares as at 31 Jan 2024 was 252,575,253 as per the rns
2) Half way adjusted profit was £23.7M according to the trading update
3) So a full year adjusted operating profit, with modest 8% growth in H2, gets us to £49.3M.
4) Adj eps = adjusted op profit / shares = 49.3 / 252.575 = 19.5p. That was the basis of my estimate on 30 Jan post #8224
5) GBGs "expectation" from the above link to consensus forecast gives a median of £60.2M adj op profit (eh - where did the extra £10M come from?). And yet they give a median adj eps of just 14.8p, equating to only £37.4M of earnings.
Have I got my sums crossed? |
Thanks for info. So far I am happy having invested a few months back largely because Herald had a large stake. |
Some good turnover here lately large trade announced after close |
Good to see a substantial bounce these last few weeks, I am reminded that IC called a Sell in October, they more or less called bottom!
Unfortunately we came in at 810p so long way back up. |
The market expectations are found in the investor section on the website ((Analyst Coverage & estimates). The median EPS for the 9 analysts covering GBG is 14.8 for FY24 and 17.1 for FY25.
It will be interesting to see how the new CEO moves things on. It seems that there's a line under the unfortunate acquisition of Acuant as most of the senior execs involved have been moved on |
Yes ur last sentence nails it share price will follow market sentiment up or down and will only move thru the gears when reports suggest they are back on track |
 It is a fair point. Very easy to say "in-line" without referring to what the expectations are, and they are not easy to find. It would be more helpful to remind us what the full year expectations are, or link to where we can find them. As far as I can see Edison are no longer being paid to cover GBG.
The outlook summary in the annual report last year said there was confidence in hitting FY24 profit expectation but also gave no numbers. In October we got ...
"Overall, we expect first-half adjusted operating profit of approximately £23.7 million. The ongoing focus on simplicity and efficiency underpins the Board's confidence that GBG will deliver its FY24 profit expectations"
... so again no numbers. The previous narrative was for slightly improved revenues in H2, we got a slight contraction in H1, but modest progress in operating profit thanks to "efficiencies". I seem to remember at half way being disappointed that hitherto tremendous debt reduction progress had stalled.
My guess is we should expect FY adjusted eps of around 18-20p, so adjusted operating profit £46-50M. In other words a flattish performance. Good enough to sustain this level of share price but no more, it will take a much more exciting growth-based outlook to restore our fortunes. |
They already published them - no need for a repeat! |
If you search for the latest edison report you will see the figures. |
What are the expectations. Why don't they publish them with these updates. |
GB GROUP PLC
("GBG", the "Group" or the "Company")
Directorate change
Trading in line with expectations
GB Group plc, (AIM: GBG) the experts in digital location, identity verification and identity fraud software, confirms that, further to the announcement of 8 November 2023 and a successful transition period as CEO designate, Dev Dhiman has today formally taken up his Board position as CEO. Dev replaces Chris Clark who, as part of the CEO succession plan, has now stepped down as a director of the Company.
As expected, trading during the third quarter to the end of December 2023 reflected a continuation of the trends reported in the first half. As a result of progress delivered from our efficiency and simplification initiatives, the Board remains confident in meeting its FY24 expectations.
GBG will publish its full year pre-close trading statement in April 2024. |
Quiet on here; chart looks very promising. Once over £3 I would venture a bowl to 4/5 level/ |
dunno but suspect this is a takeover target. debt reducing nicely after previous acquisition overpayment a couple of years ago |
is that a inverse head and shoulders on the chart? |
Good to see the FD has purchased 10,000 shares.He now has 97,000. |
At least, the CEO who oversaw that top of the market deal is leaving. Gives a chance for the new CEO to come in and rebuild credibility in the market. |
Blaming US writedowns on revised assumptions about exchange rate and interest rates rather than the obvious problem that the board paid way over the odds in the first place?
Otherwise no surprises since the trading statement, so a harsh share price reaction today. Irritation perhaps that they dare start the official report with "We are pleased ... " when they have nothing to be pleased with themselves about? Or disappointment that the weak outlook they have is to be "broadly inline"?
I remain hopeful that things will get better. At some stage. |
Good results announced this morning apart from the below :
Impairment of goodwill
Significant increases to central bank interest rates since 31 March 2023 have resulted in an increase in the pre-tax discount rate applied to the US cashflows in our impairment assessment, from 12.3% at 31 March 2023 to 13.0%, which has resulted in an exceptional non-cash goodwill impairment charge of £54.7 million. More detail can be found in Note 13 to the accounts.
I must admit I don't fully understand this.
Net debt only down to £95m but should be substantially lower by year end. |
Good report from tiny rival Intercede saying they are trading well ahead at half way. Maybe some good news to come here too? |
Fundie discussing GBG at 47 minute mark:
Vox Markets - 7/11/23
Vox Markets Fund Manager Series: Alexandra Jackson of Rathbones
Yearly chart
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
If I was CEO and knew the company was going to be taken over, I'd hang around |
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