Regarding the debt in relation to Acuant I thought it was just the case that the debt is in USD and when converted to sterling for the balance sheet value it has increased. In a years time the balance could swing the other way due to the FX rate.It is not cash related. |
Too many adjustments - I held for 6 years but sold out yesterday at 3.99. Organic looks around 2% which is awful historically. Liberim were predicting £140m rev as house broker and had no reference to one-off income adjustments. GBG's statement looks like window dressing to me, very easy to say something was one-off after the event. |
GBG shares now trading at a forward p/e under 15 which is astonishing for a business reporting 20+% margins growing at 20+% pa. Very worried by the reaction to the trading update, some commentators and the market seeing something doesn't add up, and it does feel to me like we haven't been told the whole story in terms of current trading performance of different parts of the combined business. Not sure it is safe to rely on Edison forecasts which are sponsored, it will take an independent critical analysis to x-ray things, or a nervous wait until full year results. |
That's a big difference 400p anmd 700p. |
Barclays reinitiates GB Group with 'overweight' - price target 700 pence
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Jefferies cuts GB Group price target to 400 (500) pence - 'hold' |
Link which works!
hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/fy23-outlook-maintained/D5052/ |
Edison report updated today :
hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/fy23-outlook-maintained/D5052/ |
Why don't you pay down $-debt with $-earnings and avoid the currency risk?
Something doesn't add up. A hit from debt translated to £ from $ should be (more than) offset by $ earnings being translated in to £. Shouldn't it?
So does that mean earnings on a constant-currency basis were a wider miss than reported and discussed above? Is the Acuant business not delivering? The update seemed to say good news has slipped in to second half.
In which case we can hope for some good news, seriously needed, please and thank you. |
Another bid could come the way this is going... |
Sold my last lot for a small loss. Re-entered here sub 350. Suspect the bid failed due to unrealistic expectations on price (at current time). Still can't believe they paid as much as they did for Acuant (given significant tech re-pricing). |
As far as I can determine GB have missed revenue forecasts even with currency tailwinds from US$ revenue streams in part due to reduction in crypto and fintech activity which the company expects to continue in the 2nd half.
There is also a double whammy to the balance sheet. The debt to buy Acuant of $210m has been paid down by $45m but because of adverse current movements the debt in £sterling has actually increased. |
The market wants bells and whistles at the moment! |
Great post.
I just used 50% of the Edison annual figures so your 45% will be more accurate. It seems the market was expecting a better outlook statement. |
Hi Hot, respect all your posts and long term support of GBG but not certain that Edison reports on half year results. I can only see full year actual and estimates. You may have better info.
Historically GBG's revenue is usually more weighted to the second half. FY2022 H1/H2 split was £110m/£242m. H1 is 45% of total. With Edison estimating £350m for the full year, the split on the same basis is c. £136m. Current result therefore is just shy.
That being said, not certain why the drop. No doubt Market was hoping for "exceeding expectations" message. |
Filtered... |
The expected revenue of £133.8m is well below the Edison forecast of £150m thus the drop in the share price |
Mr Market didn't like that then so far today! |
From the Edisson report 50% of the yearly forecast are :
Revenue £150m
Adj operating profit £36m
If we can beat thoese figures we know we are on target. |
Thanks hotfinance |
The trading statement is 20th October so next week. |
Filtered fud |
Bought CURY (LSE) Today , 10% up today |
It is possible that whatever deal structure GTCR had planned may have been blown away by the movements in debt markets over the last 2 weeks. It may be that some of the rumoured, other interested parties are still working on it - with a stronger $ and possibly more short term money in GBG I think another bid is a possibility. |
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