Galliford Try Share Discussion Threads

[cascudi] 01/1/2019 13:06

I hope 2019 is going to be a positive year for GFRD shareholders. Imo this is a very undervalued company. Happy holdings to those who feel the same.

[kenmitch] 31/12/2018 16:38

marksp2011

You're making much the same point as I did.

i.e this idea that we in the UK are somehow so superior and others (including Europe) to be treated accordingly. And the assumption that other Countries happily trading with whoever they do now, will be eager to do trade deals with the UK.

This is all VERY relevant to some UK shares and sectors including housebuilders. Brexit is a key reason why they have fallen so heavily.

For Galliford there has been the additional concern about their legacy Aberdeen by pass overrun so the fall for GFRD has been much the worst of all.

I'm wondering whether we've reached the bottom with all but a very bad profits warning priced in. That 50p jump on Friday suggests some think that so I bought some back. Could be a great recovery share but might need what market sees as good Brexit news before housebuilders recover.

But also note that according to I/C's Simon Thompson housebuilders often do very well in the first quarter.

[deb81e] 31/12/2018 14:29

Bor491 ... I see these times as a opportunity to get cheap shares in good companies like Gfrd, so like you not happy with present portfolio losses, but over time (6 to 18 months) things should turn around

[gabsterx] 31/12/2018 12:10

Very interesting discussions but veering off topic, No doubt Brexit will affect all UK stocks but let's at least stick to what's relevant to Galliford Try.

[bor491] 31/12/2018 11:49

DAMN brexit - the losses sitting in my portfolio are HORRIFIC

[marksp2011] 31/12/2018 08:54

"Britain was once the most successful Nation in the World"

That is an interesting one. If you didn't agree our trading terms, we would come to your country and shoot you
our textile industry was created by stopping others having a textile industry. Our Merchant fleet was created by stopping ships from other flags carrying goods.

We peddled drugs to China in return for tea and silk
We stole tea plants from China to grow in India so that we didn't have to pay as much to the Chinese
We controlled the global rubber industry by force of arms
We allowed private armies to attack sovereign nations as long as they had a warrant from the UK

i don't think we will be able to get back on those trade terms :)

[kenmitch] 30/12/2018 17:41

Agree careful. btw The Times, unlike some very pro Brexit newspapers, provide balanced coverage, including strong pro Brexit articles.

No point discussing Brexit pros and cons as it’s been argued to death and too many minds on both sides are closed.

What comes across so often is complete ignorance about Europe where so much is so much better than here. Have you ever travelled on their superb railways and with prices in Germany only a third of ours. Or noticed the absence of litter? And how many on either side of the argument know anything about the EU, like the merits or otherwise of the European Parliament or Council of Ministers, or the customs union or plus points about free movement, or benefits or otherwise of Canada or Canada plus etc etc?

And how ironic that our Premier League thrives on the European aspect with Europe providing some superb managers, and players, and with fans dreaming of their clubs playing in Champions League!

Problem is that in many Countries old habits can last for centuries. e.g Britain was once the most successful Nation in the World, and so many think that’s still the case. Not now surely, and the world is turning more global. We’re not alone in such outdated thinking. The French are currently re playing the French Revolution and still believe that’s the best way to get what they want. Perhaps it is. And so many here see Europe as the inferior enemy. They are neither.

And as for the Brexit decision in 2016. It was based on a pack of lies from both sides, just to add to all the other embedded ignorance. Yet that decision is now seen as sacrosanct. Would that still apply if it was generally accepted that leaving was a mistake? So if we buy a car that is hopelessly unreliable we should stick with it because that was the decision made and new evidence showing it was a mistake doesn’t count.

So much nonsense has been spouted and so much time and money wasted on Brexit. A golden rule is if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Instead a 40+ years civil war in the Tory Party has become a national verbal civil war. Many who feel so strongly now used hardly to give Europe a thought.

[careful] 29/12/2018 13:05

Warranty, this argument is an endless loop.
I often wonder how people can be brainwashed into an anti Eu position when we have prospered as members.

I measure prosperity as GDP and government spend.
We can afford to spend £800bn per year on whatever HMG chooses.
Economic activity, or GDP is at record levels.

Then look at your personal net worth and the prospects of your friends and family.
You risking so much.

[warranty] 29/12/2018 12:06

Careful, it's sad that such obviously intelligent people like yourself have become so totally brainwashed by the establishment and supporting press like The Times over the EU. I don't know how old you are but for 43 years I've rued the day thevUK we're conned into joining the EU, through the so called Common Market. Not once until Cameron gave us the referendum, did Parliament give us the chance to voice our opinion of the giving away of our rights, sovereignty, borders and money to a bunch of unelected, self interested idiots in Brussels. Look at the mess the 28 countries, including the UK, has become in this time. Economies of most are shredded, debt is colossal, unemployment is the worst it's ever been. The only growing economy, Germany, is now on the wane and even their own government are admitting the best days are behind them. How can you possibly want to tie yourself to that? Yes, moving to WTO terms will initially be a challenge in some areas, a benefit in others but we will just become one of the majority of economies who deal with the EU on those terms and they seem to do ok. Take the blinkers off, look at the positives and the big wide world out there. This is a great country so let's embrace the new industries opening up to us and thrive instead of decaying within an imploding EU.

[hazzy] 29/12/2018 10:04

I don't think so. The figure of 111,032,560 is the total number of shares in issue! Lol

[garycook] 29/12/2018 02:37

Big top up by Blackrock 111,032,560 Shares.Could be partly the answer to the 8.8% rise

[careful] 28/12/2018 19:36

The big bounce will occur if they vote Mays compromise deal through.
An even bigger bounce if we called Brexit off altogether.
Anything else is unknown and would upset the markets, but maybe all of that is in the price already.

A good article by economist David Smith in the Sunday Times.
Written with his usual detailed research and knowledge.

Just one of the points he makes is how exasperated he is about with all of the glib talk about the advantages of WTO.
He says that we operate our trade worldwide with excellent deals negotiated by the EU. any deals we negotiate ourselves or WTO are bound to be inferior.
Why anyone would think we could negotiate better deals ourselves baffles me.

[warranty] 28/12/2018 17:47

Well careful, once Brexit is sorted in late March and we have left the dreadful EU on WTO Terms and not May's nonsense deal, things will settle down and companies like GFRD can have confidence in the future. In fact most U.K. Focussed shares should recover though it will not happen all at once and we'll need to be patient.

[dr_smith] 28/12/2018 17:01

Careful. Yes yes yes but hope less than 3-5 years to normalise.
I am holding too, including my breath. ;-)

[careful] 28/12/2018 16:26

Share prices defy analysis in these modern markets.
lost touch with reality, a bit of 'bitcoin syndrome' in all investments.

GFRD have halved because we nervous types worried that the market may be smart and knows something, and hence refused to buy cheap shares.
The market is rarely smart anymore, just short term high frequency, trend following nonsense most of the time.

Serious investing is still a long term game.
it will take 3-5 years to establish the health of GFRD.
until then we must endure the volatility and let the children play.

I am holding.

[dr_smith] 28/12/2018 16:13

I nearly commented this a.m. at 2.5% up then realised normal volatile range, so didn't bother, with so much macro activilty. Now 8.5% up on day. I googled galliford aberdeen bridge thinking maybe signed off to account but drew a blank. Still waaaay down from where it should be but nice to see reverse of trend. I also have BAB 4.9% up, similar in that they are recipients of gov contracts. Gotta be a non macro explanation for GFRD bounce.

[eggbaconandbubble] 28/12/2018 14:59

Well, someone's definitely got the bit between the teeth today + 7%!

[declan2] 28/12/2018 14:08

This looks completely undervalued to me

[willie99] 20/12/2018 17:46

BBC Scotland is reporting that bridge won’t be open till January, after statement in Scottish parliament today. Apparently last weeks weather is to blame.

[dr_smith] 20/12/2018 16:42

Careful.
Only just woken up?
I heard it was signed off about a week ago, with exception of bridge.

[careful] 20/12/2018 15:43

Did the Aberdeen job get finished?
It was promised for late autumn.
Winter starts at midnight.

Things looking a bit more cheery today.
I suppose it is just shorters closing.

[waspfactory] 19/12/2018 14:36

Marconi - Let's name and continue to shame them - Simpson and Mayo, they should have done time.

[gabsterx] 19/12/2018 09:28

I still do not understand why GFRD is still in the construction business. It doesn't make sense even as a diversification strategy as 2% fragile margins are too slim to provide a hedge against falling house prices.

Their 2021 plans barely show any growth in revenue and margins of 2%, profits can be easily wiped out by weather conditions, unexpected events like we have seen in Aberdeen.

Can anyone familiar with the construction sector shed some light?