Galliford Try Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 05/2/2019 20:38

elpirata. Thank-you for posting.

Given yesterdays PMI report I am quite surpised by the crane survey:

"...last Friday's news that the PMI figures for manufacturing fell to 52.8 last month - the second weakest reading since July 2016."

I don't know what this crane survey is. Is it literally taking crane hire as a marker of optimism?

Maybe the cranes aren't being used for construction but ropeless bungee jumpers escaping Brexit. ;-)

Dave

[elpirata] 05/2/2019 20:03

05 FEB 2019|JAMES BUCKLEY
Construction activity hits record highs across UK regional cities
Levels of construction across Belfast, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester have all increased

Construction activity has hit record highs across the UK’s regional cities, according to Deloitte’s latest crane surveys.

What Brexit? Developers' confidence running high as construction levels surge

The Deloitte Real Estate Crane Survey series monitors construction activity in Belfast, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester as well as Dublin. In 2018 each city saw a sustained or increased level of development across a range of sectors including offices, residential, hotels, retail, education and student housing.

Belfast

The Northern Irish capital has 34 schemes under construction in the city centre – with 21 schemes completed in 2018 and nine set for completion this year. Work began on over 400,000 sq ft of new grade A office space last year, in line with the Belfast Agenda target of 1.5m sq ft of new space by 2021.

Birmingham

The West Midlands city saw 23 new starts, with residential taking the lions share. Thirteen new schemes began, bringing the development pipeline to over 5,000 units under construction. Last year also saw the delivery of the most residential units to the city centre, the highest since the Birmingham crane surveys started in 2002. New office development is down from a peak of seven new starts in 2016, to just two new schemes today. However, total office volume under construction remains high at 1.4m sq ft and 2019 is set to be a record-breaking year for office completions.

Leeds

Leeds has recorded the highest level of construction in the city centre since the Leeds crane survey began in 2002, with 21 new construction starts in 2018. This includes seven new office schemes adding to the record 844,986 sq ft office development pipeline. Residential development continued an upward trajectory with three new starts, set to deliver a further 533 units to the city, bringing the total to 2,119 units currently under construction. Five of the developments under construction are ‘build-to-rent’, which will be the city’s first purpose built build-to-rent units.

Manchester

Here, the residential sector drove record levels of development activity. A total of 14,480 residential units are under construction - double that of two years ago. Last year, 2,569 units were delivered to market, the highest level in 12 years and Manchester’s development pipeline suggests 2020 as delivering the most homes in nearly 20 years.

Manchester’s office sector has over two million sq ft of office space under construction across 13 schemes; a remarkable increase on the consistent levels of 1.5m sq ft reported between 2015 and 2017.

Simon Bedford, partner and regional head at Deloitte Real Estate, said: “To have construction figures this healthy is somewhat of a surprise given a myriad of market uncertainties. Developer confidence is a key indicator for economic health and to have this many significant construction starts over the last 12 months, especially in speculative office schemes, is testament to the resilience of the regions and appetite for growth.

“If Manchester had featured in the recently published North American Crane Index, it would have ranked number two - behind Toronto but in front of Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago. That might have seemed like a remarkable stat a few years ago given Manchester only had one crane in the sky in 2011, but today the figure is a massive 78 sites under construction.

“The marked increase in office construction levels is reflective of the continued draw to all these regional cities for major businesses. Investor confidence is thriving, as the rise in office pre-let deals clearly demonstrates. With creative, media and tech occupiers leading some of the major office deals in 2018, twinned with growing diversity in talent, these are good foundations for regional growth in the years to come.

“Despite record levels now, challenges may arise as we enter the 2020s. Each of our featured cities have ambitious plans which, if they are to emerge, will need to be supported by investment in essential infrastructure which is currently struggling to keep up with the pace of real estate development. The next decade may well be all about transport and smarter city solutions.”

[spudders] 01/2/2019 11:57

Dr, take a butchers at the New Civil Engineer website, it’s buckshee to access👍995;

[linton5] 01/2/2019 10:30

Galiford ain’t a boring share nowadays some big swings, good price for a hold considering that juice div

[spudders] 01/2/2019 10:23

Interesting article in New Civil Engineer out today, looks like the sweaty socks have got it in for us 🤔

[dr_smith] 31/1/2019 16:13

Sorry I spoke..3.75% down. :-(

[dr_smith] 31/1/2019 08:48

Gary, not clear who is commenting there.
I noticed a nice rise yesterday and a small rise today despite BBC report "House price growth at near six-year low".
I never felt the drop was justified, so PE ratio of circa 5.5 shows IMO great upside potential, ore recovery, depending when you came in.
I sit here in the warm looking at photos of our frozen country.
I wouldn't like to be a Galliford employee in context of the cold, maybe under the Aberdeen bridge with wind chill too.
May 2019 be brighter for all of us. :-)

[garycook] 29/1/2019 01:25

FTSE 250 group Galliford Try (LSE: GFRD) is an unusual mix of construction firm and house-builder. Shares in this hybrid firm have dipped by about 45% over the last two years, as the company has fallen dramatically out of favour.

This collapse is partly due to general concerns about the outlook for the construction and housing sectors. But Galliford’s slump has been made worse by some company-specific problems which followed the failure of Carillion.

As a result, Galliford shares now trade on just 5.3 times 2019 forecast earnings and offer a 10% dividend yield.
This must be too risky?

You might think that this extreme valuation is a sign of problems ahead. Normally, I would agree with you. But in this case I think the market sell-off has probably gone too far. The shares appear to be priced for a disaster, but there’s no sign of this at the moment.

The group has recently won two major road-building contracts which form part of an £8bn framework awarded by Highways England. Meanwhile, the performance of its house-building division, Linden Homes, is said to have been in line with expectations in 2018.

Other house-builders are also reporting stable performances with a strong outlook. In my view, Galliford’s 10% dividend yield could make the stock a more profitable investment than buy-to-let at the moment.

[careful] 18/1/2019 09:47

Strong recovery over the last 2 weeks.
I was beginning to worry when we dipped below 600p.
As often is the case it was only the shorters cashing in on poor sentiment and Brexit uncertainty.

[bugle4] 11/1/2019 23:25

Has the Santa Rally come late this season?

[mayers] 11/1/2019 08:29

Lovely story,warms the heart.

[bisiboy] 10/1/2019 18:05

Speaking to someone today who lives by the bridge and tells me road markings are now all painted so looks ready to open

[qs99] 10/1/2019 11:36

for smaller brethren in this space, take a look at NMCN, moved up sharply today, ahead of what is usually a trading update in Jan...DYOR etc.

[declan2] 09/1/2019 17:19

Looking very strong

[careful] 04/1/2019 11:27

Market must think Aberdeen bridge will be finished before Trump builds his wall.

[dr_smith] 03/1/2019 10:58

Boing, yes 5.4% up, now highest since 7 Dec.
Maybe news re bridge/(lack of) fines, seems too big for sentiment.

[careful] 03/1/2019 09:48

Prefer a blanket, easier to spell.

Looking better today.

[dr_smith] 02/1/2019 16:05

Mark:
Very demoralising. It seems this sort of this is endemic not an exception.
Logic says this can't last in real world, but all too often reality defies logic.

We need the worlds biggest duvet to hide under.
Crazy world can only be answered by crazy response.
...well Mr Trump thrives on it.

[marksp2011] 02/1/2019 15:28

Dr

They downselected to 3 and are now negotiating to get a bigger price reduction.

Rough guess would be that the luxurious benefits package, pension liabs and redundancy costs > TCV. What will happen is that someone will form a bidco and then liquidate the same when they lose the contract leaving someone holding the buildings and the workers singing for their pensions.

[marksp2011] 02/1/2019 07:51

DR

I saw an outsourcing contract from an FT100 stock last month

The bare bones were that on a 3+2 year deal.

The bidder took on all the people and sites, guaranteed no site closures or staff reductions for a PRICE that must be a minimimum of 33% below the current cost.

So... do what we do today in the same places with the same people for 33% less and make a profit yourself. Oh... and you pick up all the staff liabilities for long terms on final salary schemes and for long term leased specific use buildings.

It is no wonder they wanted bucket loads of financial info from bidders as the winner was going to take a catastrophic loss on the deal

Procurement at its best

[dr_smith] 01/1/2019 17:15

Cascudi.
I wish hopes and reality were more in alignment.

This doesn't help and is alarming at face value:
No-deal Brexit ferry contract sparks concerns


It would seem the government officers issuing mega contracts are divorced from the real world and fall woefully short of requirements for a small buiness, let alone UK PLC.

Given CLLN collapse, you would expect directives fro top down to have been re-stated and enhanced regarding the awarding of contracts, on pricing, terms, quality and performance.

How can a genuine company put in real bids for real work to be done where there are competing bids who can do it cheaper/better/faster on paper, but in reality the competitors cannot deliver.

It seems endemic in gov environment. Lessons should not have to be taught, but when they are, they are ignored.