Future Share Discussion Threads

[mog] 27/12/2023 18:07

Well I just don’t see the threat of AI as long as Future can protect its content from being stolen by AI bots. I don’t see robots reviewing HiFi equipment, for one thing they don’t have human ears and brains to interpret the sound , HiFi has always been a mystery where technical measurements don’t necessarily correlate with how a human judges one piece of equipment to be better than another. Similarly I don’t see robots driving cars ( or sitting in self driving cars whenever they might actually appear) and reviewing them, or visiting houses and reviewing houses, decor etc etc. Maybe one day , but I have no idea when , it’s just too far away. Good luck to all!

[takeiteasy] 26/12/2023 06:42

Future PLC (LSE:LON:FUTR) – Oliver Haill, Proactive Investors

Tip price: 759p

Your correspondent is going for a more risky pick than last year’s life insurance choice which bagged me place just outside the final medal positions for the past year’s contest. This publishing company is a neighbour of mine in the city of Bath, Future.

This year, shares in the owner of Go.Compare and publisher of Marie Claire, TechRadar, Guitar World, Cycling News and many more have nudged five-year lows, down more than 80% from their peak, as first-half profits were hit by a declining audience and a recent update revealed a misfiring US business.

Even more so, the shares have been knocked by the rise in AI. As people ask ChatGPT rather than Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), this could mean many fewer people visit Future’s website, the theory goes.

My bet (and hope as a member of the media industry) is that the audience decline in the past year is temporary, though it may not be that 2024 proves my theory correct if the economy remains in a downswing. I like a recovery punt – though my investment record would argue that I’m mostly wrong.

www.ukinvesting.com tip sheet 2024 lols...dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 25/12/2023 08:57

Great post and this is a time for positive hopes for a recovery and to get behind and support our new leader :)

[simmsc] 25/12/2023 02:47

Imagine if Future became the main source of advice in relation to what AI machines or devices to buy. Written by a human. Merry Xmas all (from China). 2024 will be a celebration of quality content.

[takeiteasy] 24/12/2023 05:52

simmsc - the ones that do have sold out and I suspect many of the ones that remain have their eyes open and make their own risk assessments :)

This goes in the category the new CEO might resign, interest rates and inflation may jump right back up again, there is something quite sinister about the departing FD share sales, AI will take over the world, politics may change after a GE etc etc etc..you have to carry a broad range of risks with any investment lols

A number of people on this board are working really hard at the moment to shout out the risk register no doubt as you imply to get the share price back down - the other side of the coin is of course the opportunity register ....

[simmsc] 24/12/2023 03:35

The more people think like that, the cheaper i can buy shares. Thank you

[riverman77] 23/12/2023 15:59

I just carried out a very comprehensive search for a new mobile under £400 exclusively using Bing - got all the information I needed as it was able to condense key information from a variety of websites. Was also a far more efficient and pleasant experience than wading through something like Tech Radar. If that isn't a threat to Future's business then I don't know whet is.

[takeiteasy] 23/12/2023 14:30

My sense is also that sources of primary client and research data will be seen as very valuable and will get more trust than unproven AI algorithms where rules are hidden in secret boxes.

I was very pleased to hear in the results call the firm investing a majority of the expense spend into recruiting something like 90 or 100 (don't quote me but do check) extra brand reviewers to build up more product quality and differentiation.

The CEO made the specific point that his view was that rivals were conceding the space to AI and not facing into competition by pulling back so he wanted this additional corex investment seen that they can add real value by competing back against AI.

The sense that we can make this all work when others are pulling away cheers my heart that we can make a go of it with a CEO who fully understands the US adtech complexities.

There are a number of areas they do seem very slow e.g. their go compare IT functionality and better web access for magazine subscribers - they do seem to have fessed up to all of this in the call so I can only hope they deliver on all these promises - a lot to be hopeful for :) dyor etc

[pireric] 23/12/2023 10:58

Right, hence understanding what part of Future's site traffic is direct (valuable) versus indirect (e.g. via search engines) is probably an important datapoint to know. Have they disclosed in the past out of interest?

Eric

[petrencf] 23/12/2023 10:33

Future's business as a publisher is not all about competing with search engines though. Its is more about creating valueable content which attracts large audience and advertisers. They had a decent result this year despite all kind of challenges.

[pireric] 22/12/2023 22:25

It may be worth remembering that investors who invest in stocks and take the time/effort to do so, are probably not a good representation of the general public

I wouldn't be surprised if AI search ends up cannibalising a decent chunk of overall public search activity within 24 months. The key being once the big search engines properly deploy the AI search natively into their webpage experiences

Eric

[death by donut] 22/12/2023 21:28

What ever happened to that block chain thing .DbD

[petrencf] 22/12/2023 21:27

And who gives a toss. I would not trust AI even if I would know 100 percent that its assessment is correct. Such a boring way of making decisions.

[death by donut] 22/12/2023 21:17

But whose to say the content of the reviews is any good?Could be reading the same dross , just quicker?DbD

[riverman77] 22/12/2023 20:52

AI can easily perform a quick review of, say hifi equipment, by condensing all the most relevant reviews across the Web - a lot easier than navigating a series websites and all the pop up ads that go with it.

[mog] 22/12/2023 19:37

This is of course all imho! If anyone does know why there is thought to be a threat from AI I’d be very interested to hear. Eg does anyone know what the analysts who think this are saying?

[mog] 22/12/2023 08:47

Well Ladkin Brand sales have persuaded me to sell. From the 2023 accounts she has in fact sold all her 94053 shares, also the CEO has been granted nil paid options but has not bought any more. If they thought the shares were ultra cheap they would be buying or not selling.

On the other hand I don’t understand the threat of AI. AI is great at assimilating information but lousy at original opinion. It’s not in the foreseeable future going to be able to review HiFi equipments, houses, computers, cars etc. Magazines with journalistic content and opinion still have a future.

[takeiteasy] 22/12/2023 06:02

Crikey, this has really energised you folks - the reason investors like me are here now is for slides 23 and 31 in the analysts pack presented this month and what the future strategy is and how will this work.

The growth needs to return in US with investments in sales people, content generators and signing up ad agencies. Our new leader has a strong US advertising background and gives confidence he knows how to leverage the opportunity.

One question in the Q&A was about how long does it take before all the sales force are adding value and his view was 6-9 months which is why growth may build up in second half of 2024 - this seems an honest and fair assessment.

I suspect we need to find a replacement finance head who is US based and knows their markets inside out (I am pleased we will have the chance for new blood tbh) - the US is something like I think he said 6 or 7 times larger than UK and at our firm the ratio is 2:1 in US over UK sales so much room to grow there.

If US rebounds in a soft landing scenario a much stronger US bias may encourage improved earnings and re-ratings -there is a saying that investors tend to focus on one issue at a time and the US strategy and ramp up is the only game in town here for me...so please come back for the nth time about how upset you are...but it is not where eyes are looking any more imvho and dyor etc

[ggrantsu] 21/12/2023 23:40

Ladkin Brand has bagged well over 15mm in the past few years from share sales alone in Future...not even including her large annual salary. she will be investing astutely outside of future shares (it was always a red flag her and Zillah being such huge sellers - I just have some leeway given in the US they would have made hundreds of millions in comp and selling inflated shares was the only way they could make a fortune). trust me...they could be buying an island and not need those share sales today...they are incredibly rich...a net wealth of c.+20mm between them (and thats being conservative). and as noted by eric, everyone (and especially the richest out there) is profit motivated at the end of the day...the most knowledgeable insider in the whole company thinks 6.90 is good value.

everything about this is negative...not sure how anyone could pretend otherwise.

[pireric] 21/12/2023 23:25

The answer is that we don't know if her and her husband sold £1m worth to buy a house. All we know is for whatever reason they thought now was a good time to sell this stock. If it was to buy a house, but they thought they stock was way too cheap, rest assured that family which probably has the top percentile of wealth in the whole of the UK could have found money elsewhere.

Piece it together with her thinking now is a good time to step down as Future CFO and I don't know why I would ever lean towards non-negative implications.

Ask 100 investors in a room to decide if this news is more likely to be positive or negative and all I am saying is that 100 of them are likely to say negative.

Eric

[takeiteasy] 21/12/2023 23:22

total outright sales from the other 2 gentleman who are not leaving are zero and 15k i.e. buttons....says it all really...so why not phone them up and ask them why they did not feel the same need to dump their holdings in large amounts too :)

[takeiteasy] 21/12/2023 23:16

perhaps she needs to buy a new house next week - how can you possibly second guess her motives - you folks simply make me laugh, have you worked in a FTSE 250 business at senior level....lols...so its heinous to raise funds to buy a house or equivalent etc etc...