Future Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 07/12/2023 08:09

The profit margin outlook reduced to 28-30% range so that explains further big fall today (even though it should have been priced in after 20% fall in a week) Personally got out first thing as while very cheap it's way too volatile and unlikely to recover anytime soon. Exit of CFO doesn't help either.

[sundance13] 07/12/2023 08:03

Maybe not!

[sajad37] 07/12/2023 07:27

New strategy and Director Change.

[northwards] 07/12/2023 07:10

Suspect we will rebound from here; Outlook-- The stabilisation of trends gives us the confidence to return to organic revenue growth in H2 2024, translating into low single-digit revenue growth in FY 2024.

[northwards] 06/12/2023 09:22

I agree. We're almost at Cannacord's target price !

[riverman77] 06/12/2023 09:12

As expected another weak day before tomorrow's results settles things - will probably either see a 20% lurch upwards or downwards depending on what they say, but should be interesting either way!

[riverman77] 05/12/2023 16:04

Not sure about conspiracy, but all brokers have an agenda of some sort, and you'll rarely see any genuinely independent research.

[ggrantsu] 05/12/2023 15:31

complete hatchet job...really shocked by it.

only really one plus...if Thursday outlook is half reasonable, it will really rocket aggressively.

I don't usually fall into conspiracy theories...but do find this episode with cannacord/jefferies v odd...you have these 2 short positions where they have been badly burned. and then suddenly jefferies / cannacord pre results come out and say the business is only worth 5x earnings. weird.

[riverman77] 05/12/2023 15:22

Yes down 17% since this started. Interestingly, DOCS is now down only 13% over the same period, even though that put out an actual profit warning last week (as opposed to a rumoured one here).

[northwards] 05/12/2023 08:30

The share price is now below the end of September trading update. Unless this week brings materially worse news, this level could be a decent pick up point.

[sajad37] 04/12/2023 17:36

Jefferies cuts Future to 'underperform' (hold) - price target 730 (910) pence

[ggrantsu] 04/12/2023 16:16

one can only guess at this point...but my own view is the notes were just broad macro views - entirely fair but its not exactly second level thinking. my thesis is that if they come out and say, we expect profit for 24 to be in line with 23, this will rocket...its far less than 7x in terms of P/E...think its now back under 6x...which is insane.

short of a downgrade / really negative statement, I believe this should rebound. Just been unfortunate the notes have come out in wea markets and this is a name where it has been a case of 'blood on the streets' - its highly volatile with a lot of uncertainty.

[riverman77] 04/12/2023 14:51

Yes, and S4 and Reach are both lousy companies, so why focus on them as comparators? Not seen the Jeffrey's note, but they've been fairly negative for a while, previously pointing out that they will struggle to generate any organic growth. Not sure I agree, but even if this is true, FUTR is on 7x earnings so more than priced in.

Would only be concerned if they had uncovered something company specific but that doesn't seem to be case here.

[ggrantsu] 04/12/2023 11:38

I mean it all depends on how you view these broker notes. Cannacord I’ve read and take the view they are placing emphasis on players like reach and s4 capital (s4 has downgraded all through the year while future has confirmed it will meet expectation) - both of these are very different businesses. The Jeffries note talks about how cyclical future is - well yes…but seems pretty priced in!! And as I keep repeating…many positive releases in consumer and tech world atm…

It’ll come down to the margin won’t it…any hint of positivity and it will rocket.

[riverman77] 04/12/2023 09:31

Well it's going to be interesting to see the results later in the week to see if they're right. If they do warn then market reaction likely to be brutal (even though it's already down 15% since the first downgrade, so in theory should now be priced in, but of course markets don't act rationally right now). I guess on the positive side they can buy back their shares even more cheaply.

[maximus57] 04/12/2023 08:47

Broker recommendations: You'd be better sucking your finger and sticking it in the wind. They rarely agree and are as changeable as the weather.

[tomg23] 04/12/2023 08:09

Wow , another downgrade by Jeffries now. Who honestly follows these guys recommendations?

[northwards] 01/12/2023 10:17

Worth remembering that Canacord raised its target price for Future from 757p to 827p just 7 weeks ago. Yesterday it reversed that to c 750p. It really can't make its mind up.

[oldboy1] 01/12/2023 08:33

thanks river , yes this is beyond irritating and as you say zero rationale. Agree with GG aswell, makes this ridiculously cheap. What we need is a very positive RNS on the 7th. The market is unforgiving at the moment, any sniff of anything negative has a bad impact. Need only positive messages on the 7th - bit like GOOD recently put out! as I'm sure you all know.

[galatea99] 01/12/2023 06:10

Simply one more example of why many companies are giving up on London as a market.

[john09] 30/11/2023 23:00

Double whammy downgrade on a very bad day generally . Otherwise it would have dropped 5%

[ggrantsu] 30/11/2023 22:29

I really see this is a further valuation opportunity...never thought we'd see the 8's again - anything down here where the PE is under 6.5x and FCF yield is nearing 15% is a bargain for this portfolio of assets. and once again...GoCo is worth a multiple in line with moneysupermarket...

[ggrantsu] 30/11/2023 22:26

i really am sat here eating my dinner kind of half in shell shock after today.

we are literally talking about a sell side note from a broker who is always on the wrong side of stuff...referencing stuff in a note that is irrelevant to FUTR. Even if a note had someone or something of substance involved, I'd be surprised to see it move a share more than 2%. Both things were lacking in abundance today and somehow we ended up losing almost 15% of MC.

Honestly...I've re read all the data points I referenced earlier e.g. amazon, google, moneysupermarket, EA games etc...all looks good.

I may be completely wrong...but high conviction that this will swing back.

[riverman77] 30/11/2023 22:22

Yes seemingly all Canacord - incredible how a third rate anaylst can put out a half baked sell note and drop the share price by 12%. Wouldn't mind if there was actually some substance behind it.

[oldboy1] 30/11/2023 19:59

well it certainly didn't close 'flattish' as one poster earlier today thought. wtf happened here??, took my eye of this....this is all Canacord?