Funding Circle Share Discussion Threads

[velvetide] 08/1/2024 12:28

Today we are hitting a 52-high wrt vol...

[its the oxman] 06/1/2024 18:11

Any holders see any hope of a share price recovery here ?

[terminator101] 02/3/2023 07:09

Oh dear, thise results are truly dreadful.

[firestorm911] 13/10/2022 10:19

It's time we march towards 50p.

Holding a few from sub 40p, today could be the day.


Regards,
F911

[sphere25] 13/9/2022 16:15

Archy147,

There is a short and long answer. Brace yourself :-)


If some interesting activity stands out, I will post it. If something is worth a buy (imo), I will post the buy. However, it will be even quicker trades only, with tighter stops. This market hasn't been giving much time before the next legs down.

Overall though, the reality right now is to continue to play defence (even sit it completely out if new or less experienced) and try and hit the market with quick counters on bounces (seeing over sold technical bounces and some fierce bounces on some company updates) or interesting heavy buying.

If we play attack on the long side with short term trades in this market attempting to grow the share dealing accounts (ISA in my and most cases), it is very easy to get chewed up and spat out.

The only folk who can take on a more attacking stance are those long term folk who have done their research on the heavily beaten down low multiples shares, have factored in profit downgrades/outcomes, can see recession proof balance sheets that aren't going to cause some major issue down the line (too much debt is always the killer) and are willing to look out to at least some point in 2024.

Even if next year is muted or bad (central bankers continue to balls up), at some point next year the market will look forward about nine months and it would take an ardent bear to argue that better times aren't close. That would hold even truer if the US (DOW currently off 900 points) has put too much faith in a soft landing and has a bigger sell off from here - see last post on RICA board.

Ultimately, this market can make anyone look very foolish very quickly and the risk reward on the short term long trades is still terrible. The interesting thing is that the more beaten down shares get, the more intrigue there is in buying a basket of shares (rather than 99% shorter term trading) for a 2-5 year hold.

Tempted to have a proper go if the bullish hat can be found at some point down the line. Let's see how it goes.

All imo
DYOR

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Archy147
2 Sep '22 - 13:01 - 126 of 140
0 0 0
Sphere appreciate your thoughts - is there ANYTHING you're buying right now?

[sbb1x] 08/9/2022 07:13

Nice buy 77,000@38.21

[sbb1x] 08/9/2022 07:01

Good update.Performance better than expected.Cash 185mNet assets 299mMkt cap 120m

[sbb1x] 07/9/2022 17:55

3rd day in a row with higher close, target 44p

[sbb1x] 07/9/2022 15:55

Some interesting buys today

[sbb1x] 06/9/2022 15:55

Closing at the high of the day @35.95 2nd session in a row that has happened The trend is your friend

[sbb1x] 06/9/2022 11:48

High of tge day paid 35.25p Keep going 44p is the target

[sbb1x] 06/9/2022 10:05

Hello 35s..Target 44p

[sbb1x] 06/9/2022 08:02

Into the 34s... here we go...

[sbb1x] 06/9/2022 07:54

Some nice buying today, could see a gap up tomorroe and retest 44p in coming sessions

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 15:36

Cloaing at the daya high off 33p ... interesting

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 15:22

Reckon we coukd see a nice big gap up on wednesday when the next update is released.

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 15:12

Bid and ask slowly increasing... do we have a big back ground buyer...

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 14:41

Has this finally bottomed ?I saw 2 x 250,000 buys go though one day last week, next update in 2 days.Could it retest 44p after a good update ?

[sbb1x] 02/9/2022 12:34

Just keeps going down. Getting interesting though

[archy147] 02/9/2022 12:01

Sphere appreciate your thoughts - is there ANYTHING you're buying right now?

[sphere25] 01/9/2022 17:36

This is going to be survival of the fittest. The businesses out there are facing so many challenges right now, I can't see how there isn't going to be an absolute barrage of warnings on the cost and demand side. Clearly major blow ups will follow outside of public markets.

We're supposed to get more bullish with valuations dropping and I'm just as bearish as I have been. This is a horrible nasty environment. The only good thing to be said is that the companies which have been hammered (that have strong balance sheets) aren't a million miles away from the bottom.

Popular ones like LUCE and RCH - a couple of warnings away from the bottom? Maybe the prices halve and abit more from here. Surely you buy then. I will be but that is all that can be said right now. Maybe the government caps the energy bill and it's less gloomy, but wow, this is alot of gloom.

Relentless out there.

Down, down and more down. Very hard to fight and I can't even see the attempts at perceived percentage play trades right now. Not that this market gives much a of a percentage play on the long side.

We can trade anything long but you want the one's that provide a favourable risk-reward and I literally cannot see much right now. Clearly if the US plunges down more, a technical bounce will be due but looking out there right now...

"If I buy that on news, it's not going to rally"
"If I buy that, it's not going to rally"
"If I buy that, it might bounce a very small amount and it will come flying back down - not worth a go"
"Not enough buying come into that one"
"Sellers crawling all over that one"

So err yeah, according to my broker I am supposed to be one of the better traders out there and I can't see the opportunities to grow the ISA. I don't know how newer folk are dealing with this market.

But this is the harsh reality of markets and this is exactly why I am mostly sitting it out too. I'm not going to stand in the way and get annihilated. I'll play the non-hero type, be selective and wait this out.

Play defence and try and hit the market with quick counter attacks, but it's mainly about the defence until better times come.

All imo
DYOR

[linton5] 24/8/2022 10:40

Definitely traders market these days no stock is safe really I sold at 42.5 last week from 36.5 will keep an eye on as feel it’s way undervalued GL sphere 🙏

[sphere25] 24/8/2022 08:28

No problem Linton5.

This move back in FCH is just another example of how the dynamic is out there and how well and truly the bears are in control. Clearly (imo) FCH is of far greater risk, but it is happening almost everywhere. As traders, we have to be so quick to book any profits if having a go for a trade and cutting the losers quick. These pops higher simply don't last long.

Even when you have heavy buying (e.g. FCH, PIN, MTEC) or big director buying (e.g. OTB), you can get a pop higher and the bears still come flying back with the macro trumping all. Even if a company is performing ahead of expectations, the macro can still trump all. If you're in line with expectations, not alot happens and then another leg down for some. If you're behind, it's clobbering time.

If you have buyers in size try to come in and clear sellers at key resistance levels (e.g. TYMN just under 260p, STAF at 46p and SRC at 60p), the market sees the higher volume, notes that there are too many sellers in size at those key marks and pings back off the breakout level to lurch back lower.

Currently watching 110 shares for any interesting activity (hard slog finding it right now) and there are eight, just eight of the regular ones that are sat in some form of respectable position: CTO, CNIC, MER, WIN, LOOK, SOM, ADF and CAPD. Companies like CNIC have to keep beating forecasts just to hang on to gains because the sellers always come back in to try and knock it back down.

There are clearly still opportunities out there for quick bounces and it is more favourable than earlier in the year, but it's still a treacherous market. Earlier in the year it was worse. When the indices charts roll over, establish firm downtrends, volatility picks up and you don't know how the US is going to close after the UK close, it becomes very hard to trade. You can wake up with a big gap down and take a barrage of 5-10% losses. It's a confidence arena this. Too many of those and it takes alot of resilience to march back.

The risk reward was massively against us at that point. I took time out and went on holiday. It was very difficult. I don't see the point in trying to fight something so bearish like that.

You may as well just go to a building site, stand in front of a wrecking ball and start shouting "COME ON IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH!"

Clearly better times will come, the trends will change and buy and hold will reap the rewards but I don't see any bullish times in the near term. It would be surprising if it is this year, possibly some point next year (at best?) when the market looks forward 9 months through the issues but it's too difficult to call.

Back to looking for any interesting activity.

All imo
DYOR

[linton5] 19/8/2022 09:01

Thank you sphere25 love reading your scriptures 🙏GL