Funding Circle Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 16:22

Reckon we coukd see a nice big gap up on wednesday when the next update is released.

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 16:12

Bid and ask slowly increasing... do we have a big back ground buyer...

[sbb1x] 05/9/2022 15:41

Has this finally bottomed ?I saw 2 x 250,000 buys go though one day last week, next update in 2 days.Could it retest 44p after a good update ?

[sbb1x] 02/9/2022 13:34

Just keeps going down. Getting interesting though

[archy147] 02/9/2022 13:01

Sphere appreciate your thoughts - is there ANYTHING you're buying right now?

[sphere25] 01/9/2022 18:36

This is going to be survival of the fittest. The businesses out there are facing so many challenges right now, I can't see how there isn't going to be an absolute barrage of warnings on the cost and demand side. Clearly major blow ups will follow outside of public markets.

We're supposed to get more bullish with valuations dropping and I'm just as bearish as I have been. This is a horrible nasty environment. The only good thing to be said is that the companies which have been hammered (that have strong balance sheets) aren't a million miles away from the bottom.

Popular ones like LUCE and RCH - a couple of warnings away from the bottom? Maybe the prices halve and abit more from here. Surely you buy then. I will be but that is all that can be said right now. Maybe the government caps the energy bill and it's less gloomy, but wow, this is alot of gloom.

Relentless out there.

Down, down and more down. Very hard to fight and I can't even see the attempts at perceived percentage play trades right now. Not that this market gives much a of a percentage play on the long side.

We can trade anything long but you want the one's that provide a favourable risk-reward and I literally cannot see much right now. Clearly if the US plunges down more, a technical bounce will be due but looking out there right now...

"If I buy that on news, it's not going to rally"
"If I buy that, it's not going to rally"
"If I buy that, it might bounce a very small amount and it will come flying back down - not worth a go"
"Not enough buying come into that one"
"Sellers crawling all over that one"

So err yeah, according to my broker I am supposed to be one of the better traders out there and I can't see the opportunities to grow the ISA. I don't know how newer folk are dealing with this market.

But this is the harsh reality of markets and this is exactly why I am mostly sitting it out too. I'm not going to stand in the way and get annihilated. I'll play the non-hero type, be selective and wait this out.

Play defence and try and hit the market with quick counter attacks, but it's mainly about the defence until better times come.

All imo
DYOR

[linton5] 24/8/2022 11:40

Definitely traders market these days no stock is safe really I sold at 42.5 last week from 36.5 will keep an eye on as feel it’s way undervalued GL sphere 🙏

[sphere25] 24/8/2022 09:28

No problem Linton5.

This move back in FCH is just another example of how the dynamic is out there and how well and truly the bears are in control. Clearly (imo) FCH is of far greater risk, but it is happening almost everywhere. As traders, we have to be so quick to book any profits if having a go for a trade and cutting the losers quick. These pops higher simply don't last long.

Even when you have heavy buying (e.g. FCH, PIN, MTEC) or big director buying (e.g. OTB), you can get a pop higher and the bears still come flying back with the macro trumping all. Even if a company is performing ahead of expectations, the macro can still trump all. If you're in line with expectations, not alot happens and then another leg down for some. If you're behind, it's clobbering time.

If you have buyers in size try to come in and clear sellers at key resistance levels (e.g. TYMN just under 260p, STAF at 46p and SRC at 60p), the market sees the higher volume, notes that there are too many sellers in size at those key marks and pings back off the breakout level to lurch back lower.

Currently watching 110 shares for any interesting activity (hard slog finding it right now) and there are eight, just eight of the regular ones that are sat in some form of respectable position: CTO, CNIC, MER, WIN, LOOK, SOM, ADF and CAPD. Companies like CNIC have to keep beating forecasts just to hang on to gains because the sellers always come back in to try and knock it back down.

There are clearly still opportunities out there for quick bounces and it is more favourable than earlier in the year, but it's still a treacherous market. Earlier in the year it was worse. When the indices charts roll over, establish firm downtrends, volatility picks up and you don't know how the US is going to close after the UK close, it becomes very hard to trade. You can wake up with a big gap down and take a barrage of 5-10% losses. It's a confidence arena this. Too many of those and it takes alot of resilience to march back.

The risk reward was massively against us at that point. I took time out and went on holiday. It was very difficult. I don't see the point in trying to fight something so bearish like that.

You may as well just go to a building site, stand in front of a wrecking ball and start shouting "COME ON IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH!"

Clearly better times will come, the trends will change and buy and hold will reap the rewards but I don't see any bullish times in the near term. It would be surprising if it is this year, possibly some point next year (at best?) when the market looks forward 9 months through the issues but it's too difficult to call.

Back to looking for any interesting activity.

All imo
DYOR

[linton5] 19/8/2022 10:01

Thank you sphere25 love reading your scriptures 🙏GL

[babbler] 18/8/2022 12:06

yes. Good riddance

[linton5] 18/8/2022 11:29

Jupiter is selling up everywhere

[babbler] 18/8/2022 11:22

the 13m odd sells earlier might be Last of 18m JUP had left

[linton5] 18/8/2022 10:59

Volume blowing the roof off been following for a while very interesting I can see this getting back over a pound next few month

[sphere25] 18/8/2022 10:59

Added a few more here. There is a queue of bidding algos on the book across various exchanges. Stacks at 40.4p, 40.8p, 41p and then in 0.1p increments up to 41.4p. Everytime those orders get hit (e.g. at 40.8p-41p) they reload and then another buy order eventually outbids them.

Unsure if this is some news coming here but rarely see a queue like this. Just noted two big buy orders at 42.5p that appeared and disappeared of well over 100k. Irregular.

Again, no idea if something is going on or its just a vigorous bull bear battle

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 18/8/2022 09:08

Well, considering the huge blocks going through early today at 40p (volume up to a whopping 14.7m - probably both sides of the trade), it is safe to say it isn't just the EBT that is buying trying to clear out the big sellers.

But is it enough to smash through 40p and cause a spike in this terrible market?

Sellers to exhaust buyers and a move back down or buyers to exhaust sellers for a pop higher?

All to be revealed shortly.

All imo
DYOR

[linton5] 12/8/2022 14:27

Fch on its way out or it’s the bargain o the century, very quiet from company since results

[thetoonarmy2] 21/7/2022 15:20

Who do they sell the default loans to for what kind of discount I wonder of course they are losing a packet but at least they can hide them from showing on the balance sheet.

[hamhamham1] 01/7/2022 12:15

You do know they don't do the recovery loan scheme any more?
And they charge a flat 5.9% upfront, then the lenders who they backed off to get the interest maybe 8%?
I'd prefer to take the 5.9% upfront using other lenders cash to hand out.
The platform is only now getting traction, after 5 yrs of perfecting, see the near 2bn of lenders money put up over past couple of months.
But hey, my money, my risk.

[hamhamham1] 01/7/2022 07:36

That's approaching a couple of billion of new capital offered up from several lenders over past few months, inc this one.

[camraid] 27/6/2022 20:40

There are some very important considerations with this business.

They don't have recurring revenue. They charge a platform fee for matching borrowers with institutional lenders. These are one off fees. They need to keep pedalling to earn money.

They benefitted enormously from CBILS. They used the scheme to refinance a lot of existing loans. It was attractive to borrowers because they could get rid of personal guarantees, get a 12 month payment holiday and reduce the interest rate. It was a very easy sell.

Now they are pushing the recovery loan scheme. There will be some benefit but not as much as CBILS.

Many key staff have left. They are using 3rd party marketing companies to approach existing customers to push new loans.

I think it is looking rather desperate for them.

In difficult times they could see a lot of defaults. If businesses fail the loans are not asset secure. If institutional lenders start to lose money they may have issues. If they starting bankrupting individuals they may have reputational issues.

I think this is a basket case. It was over hyped by the likes of Vince Cable. It was overhyped as a tech business when it doesn't have recurring revenue. It requires a huge marketing machine to make it work.

It is rubbish in my opinion.