Fulcrum Utility Services... Share Discussion Threads

[ivancampo] 27/9/2019 14:14

Glad I held on, looks like this is going higher. Must be RNS re holdings soon.

[jl5006] 27/9/2019 12:19

TV
A/cs may well be on Coy website - but the AGM is the formal place to receive the Annual Report, Accounts and Auditors Report and for them to be accepted by BOD.

[iceman82] 27/9/2019 11:01

happy to hold even though i am currently down, mcap of 53 m looks a but low for me though.

[mfhmfh] 27/9/2019 10:45

huge volume today...over 5 million shares traded already.

[57eady eddie] 27/9/2019 10:44

Rising now on big volume

[iceman82] 27/9/2019 06:59

if you ere correct topvest then i will just pick up divi and wait for those contract wins, company has no debt and 3 mln in the bank so at the moment we are ok,

[topvest] 26/9/2019 20:16

The accounts are approved - they are on their web-site.
If the Cenkos forecast was wrong then the company would have told them pretty quickly. Fulcrum would have guided them anyway, given that Cenkos have a strong relationship with Fulcrum and brought the company to AIM in the first place.
I've had the numbers quoted on this board and on Stockopedia, so they are probably correct.
More chance of a further downgrade in my view for FY20 than any upside.
Only hope is that they can announce some contract wins and a better order book so that FY21 looks better. This is a reasonably likely scenario.
FY20 looks a write-off to me!

[jl5006] 26/9/2019 13:56

TV
So you are saying this is all down to Cenkos. Did the Directors create this scenario?
Or is it down to 3rd party guess?
This is not a Coy with Directors able to buy at the drop of a hat.
The absence of Director buys may be governed by Purda - A/cs not yet approved.
Just my thoughts.

[topvest] 26/9/2019 12:17

You can’t get away from the fact that the directors have not in any way explained the £6.25m profit downgrade. Say a £1m softening in infrastructure and a £1m deterioration in Dunamis. What’s the rest due to? If anyone can post the Cenkos broker conclusion that might help. Directors haven’t been buying either.
They are not forecasting a dividend cut, but a small increase. I guess it’s all contingent on the FY21 order book though.

[jl5006] 26/9/2019 10:14

Thanks TV
I am not a subscriber so I will wait for the AGM update. STKP guesstimate compilation may /may not include SMs. Revenue will project down because of the pipeline assets accounting treatment. IMHO Bayford would have had sight of Coy anticipated growth before investing their millions.

VV
Gloomy view - but hard to get over the Blackrock disposal quickly.
We shall see what happens soon and should we leave the EU - then EU ruling on energy supply will not apply and Dunamis will have its hands full.

[topvest] 25/9/2019 19:38

Stockopedia
2020
net profit £2.2m (-£6.3m 1m mvt.)
2021
net profit £5m

[jl5006] 25/9/2019 15:08

Don't follow - where did u get the 1 month profit downgrade from? From FCRM or a 3rd party?

[topvest] 25/9/2019 08:20

With a heavy heart I have sold half my position. Worst case scenario is that I will have 3-bagged overall, and currently a 4-bagger. Was getting on for a 10-bagger at one stage. I don't think I've ever been more disappointed with a share that I have tripled my money on!

Anyway, the Board have not been totally straight with us. The 1 month profit downgrade is £6.3m. That is enormous and has not been explained by their words at all. It's a massive profit warning for the current year with a bounce back in 2020/21 when some of the electric work starts coming on stream. The big question for me is why is the turnover forecast down c£1m, but the profit forecast down over £6m. It doesn't make sense, unless something that they are doing is much lower margin or losing money.

I deliberated over selling it all or 50%. I decided to keep a position as the prospects are generally quite encouraging longer term. Think this may go below 20p. If it goes down to single pennies then I will look to add again on a genuine recovery. Why they increased the dividend is a bit questionable as well as the FY20 dividend forecast is uncovered and debt levels will shoot up with the pipelines that they are buying. Directors need to be adding if they are so confident.

[pictureframe] 25/9/2019 08:05

Just being honest. Doesn't appear to be any support and down again.

[pictureframe] 24/9/2019 10:21

going sub 20p

[jl5006] 23/9/2019 16:04

ivchamp
Ambiguous accounting and dishonesty.
Do not wish to read any of ur research.
Easy said - not support - just divisive - ur opinion.
Why read this BB backwards - we had an understanding of the problem.
Articles like urs akin to some of the stuff on Motley Fool.

[topvest] 23/9/2019 10:37

Has anyone got the current year broker forecasts that they can share please?

[68sjb7g] 22/9/2019 15:09

Good write up in the Yorkshire Post. The Shore Capital analyst seems to be saying (see end of article):"Looking at the long-term, we continue to believe that Fulcrum offers excellent potential."https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/fulcrum-sees-big-jump-in-orders-1-10007737/amp

[topvest] 21/9/2019 20:29

Forgot to mention that deferred income is always a key number to look at. The higher the liability versus the prior year the better as it shows how much work they have in progress.

"Of the £26.3 million of contract liabilities, £20.9 million (2018: £20.4 million) relates to deferred income. Deferred income represents contracted sales for which services to customers will be provided in future periods."

A little higher than last year, which is not too bad.

On the infrastructure assets profitability I probably overlooked the fact that the cost base must have increased to support also now being an iDNO as well as an iGT. The fixed costs will be spread over a larger customer base as the asset base expands. Other than the exceptional impairment which looks like a bit of a screw-up, it stacks up I think. Run rate now is £3.6m but will probably be up at £5m by the end of FY20.

[carpingtris] 21/9/2019 18:21

Some director buys would show confidence..

[57eady eddie] 21/9/2019 17:33

What is that above post all about???!!!!??

Anyway, I was going to say, the positive thing about releasing your results on a Friday is that it often hits the weekend press.

Hopefully this might happen and with a decent AGM, we'll get a bit of continued upward momentum