Fulcrum Utility Services... Share Discussion Threads

[ivancampo] 21/9/2019 07:59

Chunky volume, wouldn't be surprised to see one of our two new institutions have added yesterday. Surely dividend is key here, wouldn't have increased if couldn't maintain progressive policy?

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 21:40

Yes TV
Bit more important than the Panic man in Court insisting the decision be made asap - affecting - not 60 million people but a few egos
sad old world.
one comment in that article - retro pyts will be made. Dun is a party - whether it is material or ? A Dr without quantification or phps a windfall.

[topvest] 20/9/2019 20:50

When is the capacity market due to be sorted..lost touch a bit...it's taken nearly a year so far? Some companies are impacted much more significantly than Fulcrum.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 20:49

The AGM update might provide current thought. H1 info
Eric above stated 1.5 cenkos - but from when.

[topvest] 20/9/2019 20:45

Anyone got the Cenkos forecast? - Stockopedia has 2.55p EPS for FY20 as today's update.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 20:31

And phaps that is the point - the pipeline asset ownership is just protem - u may remember that they disposed of their pipeline assets a few years ago to reduce debt.
In the absence of the EU capacity market reversion we will have to sit tight for a few weeks.
The pipeline assets are saleable.
U blamed the external auditors for nor focusing the company in the direction of IFRS 15 - phaps they did - but I guess the point was missed and hazel took the fall.
As CFO she should or one of her staff should have known.
History - this will grow - for me it is an investment - in during the Spellman era - patience needed and some shrewdies have seen that

[topvest] 20/9/2019 19:55

I've had a look through the annual report. Impressive that they published the audited annual report on the day of the results, which is best practice (albeit a few months late and restated!). No major red flags that I could see, other than Dunamis which has been disappointing. To be fair to management they have been unlucky with the capacity market suspension which is delaying all of their larger schemes on the electricity side. The other thing to note is that they are continuing to invest heavily in pipeline assets and so borrowings will increase in order to achieve that. Obviously, the FY20 year has been downgraded quite sharply - due to infrastructure delays (consistent with Nexus) and Dunamis with the continued capacity market suspension. Dunamis revenue is much reduced and needs to bounce back.
The other thing that looked a bit disappointing was the pipeline asset profitability - if they are going to invest so much in this area I'd like to see better returns.
Fundamentally, there is quite a lot of value in the group provided that they don't overstretch themselves. The business has always run on a big net current liability position funded by the large payments in advance, which is a competitive advantage actually.
Anyway, annual report doesn't indicate any major problems. However, some concern on FY20 outlook and Dunamis carrying value if in 12m time its not turned itself around.
I would be interested in seeing the Cenkos forecast so I will try and pick-up on Stockopedia.
To me it make sense to spin off their asset owner business as this is the route cause of the issues in the accounts; complexity, distorted cash flow, high capex and increased borrowings. It doesn't sit well with the really cash generative infrastructure construction business. The pipeline business is a regulated pipeline business and could easily be sold for the amount its been valued at.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 19:15

EEz
Ur point was intangibles and is now tangible (fixed) assets.
Cash flow is singular.
End of!

[eezymunny] 20/9/2019 19:02

ALL THAT MATTERS jl5006 is future cash flows,plus whatever for tangible assets. A company could have 10 squillion in goodwill on the b/s and it would make ZERO difference to future cash flows. Think any other way and you're deceiving yourself IMMVHO.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 18:23

EEZ
Cash flow is ok. What does cash flow have to do with BS - u have just seen how the BS has been uplifted - guess u do not understand.
Amortising goodwill/know how is required at each year end and that impacts the BS and of course the I & E - as is seen necessary.
Please - basic rules - understand.

[eezymunny] 20/9/2019 18:09

jl5006. This is how accounting works. What matters is future cash flows... If you wrote down all the goodwill the future cash flows would change by how much do you think? Clue: zero, nothing, nowt, or diddly squat.

[jovi1] 20/9/2019 17:28

considering all the gloomy prediction this is a good set of result and a disappointing share price movement
on this occasion more and more frequent this days that i can remember is always hard to decide and often flick a coin is as good as any in deep research
one thing for sure, in 6 months or so, for all of us invested, we will be questioning why did we not but more at the opportunity to a very cheep stock or we will be saying i knew i should had sold as something feel wrong
time will tell

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 16:24

And
EEZ
A flippant remark such as that only shows that you have no shares in FCRM - just an agitator!

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 16:20

EEZY
This is the way business works.

[eezymunny] 20/9/2019 16:00

lol jl5006

And how much do you think they could sell their intangible assets for if they stuck them in an auction?

lolol

[ducatiman] 20/9/2019 15:57

Disappointing market reaction thus far.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 15:47

EEZY
The intangibles relate to the Dumaris acquisition - goodwill - customers and expert know how.
Common treatment when acquiring a business with know how.
How would you think the amount paid could be treated?
Intangibles are subject to annual review as to their carrying value.
Some lightweight critics here!

[eezymunny] 20/9/2019 15:23

topvest you say NAV is 20p. I expect you mean 20p/share.

That of course includes a lot of intangibles. Tangible NAV/share is c. 8.1p/share. Much much less.

[partridge1948] 20/9/2019 15:17

Facing headwinds in the current year, but I like the increase in "Transportation" revenues from owned assets,now running at £3.6M p.a. at the year end, with little cost to service. Hopefully more news on current trading at AGM 9th October. Hefty yield a bonus.I have held since not long after flotation and do not think there would have been any increase in the interim dividend if there was real doom and gloom on the horizon, but always dyor.

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 14:35

Eric
There are always 2 sides to any situation
Comments such as "laughable " about the accounts function - suggests that you have never worked in an accounts dept nor acted as an auditor.
Easy to criticise. I guess the auditors missed the point the previous year - should have been a note to the effect that IFRS 15 was compulsory post Jan 19 - to management.
And 40,000 transactions had to be checked.

[pireric] 20/9/2019 14:22

Not invested, but also don't think I'm being unfair with any comments today. Have been doing a bit of work on this over past few months given the share price has gone from 75 to 25p - was trying to see if there's a good recovery story. But just can't get massively excited

The fact that forecasts for 2020 are down to 1.5p on adj. EPS says it all. At the same time, the rating on a more normalised (maybe) EPS figure is far more reasonable than before

Anyhow, appreciate all the discussion and thanks PTed for the updated figures. GL all holders!

[jl5006] 20/9/2019 14:14

Eric
So negative!
Are u invested ? If u are then from your comments u should sell!

[topvest] 20/9/2019 14:02

They are obviously going through a sticky patch, but worth at least 30p. Given they increased the dividend a cut is not that likely in my view. NAV is 20.5p. Happy to hold and collect the dividends. This yields 33% on my original purchase price.