Frontier Min Share Discussion Threads

[hereford29] 04/8/2014 14:10

No reason to suppose it is the same seller. Every reason to suppose the company is withholding information that is material.

[jascat] 04/8/2014 13:19

No way of knowing for sure, but looks like he is. He has been selling for weeks.
FML require private investors to list on AIM. They list on AIM to present a market value of the company. Their original plan was to build up the company & so the share price, to encourage a buyout & quick profit. Due to the previous leaders bungling, this did not happen, so they need us more than ever to show value in the expected rise from the levels we see now.
FML has an enterprise (takeover) valuation of around £70 million (in excess of 3p a share).
Patience is needed. If you are concerned, then it's best to sell & walk away, rather than become ill with worry. Certainly not a share for widows & orphans.

[hereford29] 04/8/2014 12:59

How do you know that there is a forced seller? Forced how? it could just be someone selling because they think the company is finished. If the company regard small private investors as a nuisance, this only make it more likely that they will try to buy out small investors on the cheap or otherwise shaft them does it not? if they are just a nuisance, why do they need them at all? Why not just take the company private? If they do want other investors, why not respond to them and keep them informed? Doesn't make any sense, as Erlan used to say in his interviews.

[jascat] 04/8/2014 12:52

Copper prices are firming this morning.
More importantly, copper stocks at the London metal exchange have been falling for weeks & are now at an eight year low.
All good news for FML.

[jascat] 04/8/2014 12:31

The costs to Sberbank vary depending on what news item you read. In reality nobody probably knows.
Re. FML. Everyone seems concerned that the company has not released any production info this year. If you look, they did not release any last year prior to the interim results in September.
I have tried to find out info from the company, with no result. In any case, they would not divulge any info that is not already in the public domain. FML, despite their promises to give updates, care little about their private investors. We are more nuisance value than anything else.
All the info I have mentioned, I have gathered from various sources over the past few months & is already public knowledge.
I doubt we shall hear anything about production prior to the results RNS on 30th September.
I intend to add to my holdings once our forced seller is finished.

[hereford29] 04/8/2014 12:25

and while you may be correct about having no prima facie similarities with Sunkar, who indeed are not producing anything and never have, they did claim to be making fertiliser sales, and promise sufficient sales (that didn't materialise) to cover costs and interest on loans. There are posters on this website who believe that Sunkar was a systematic fraud from start to finish (augustusgloop being one). And some of the same people who set up and IPOd Sunkar, also set up and IPOd Frontier. Tom Sinclair was one of them from memory, who has been raising pre-IPO finance for another central Asian fertiliser project recently. This may be just a conspiracy theory, perhaps the fact that the Board and CEOS of both Sunkar and Frontier know each other well is understandable given the relatively small world of Kazakh executives who often went to the same Business School and held directorships at some of the same Oil & Gas Groups, and some of whom work left to work for the government in Astana. I suppose the same is true of people in the City in London.

[hereford29] 04/8/2014 11:42

Not according to Friday's detailed article in the Financial Times, you can read it online, or here I quote directly. "In the past week Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, has seen its funding costs increase 16 per cent, according to Markit. The price for insuring Sberbank's bonds against default, a good proxy for funding costs, rose to €324,000 per €10m of bonds, more than triple the European bank average. Other large banks, such as Russian Agricultural Bank and VTB, also saw big increases." August 1, 2014 5:05 pm Financial Times

Perhaps a diplomatic solution will be found to the sanctions stand-off in the next month or so and things will go back to normal, as you think, but for Mr. Putin, compromise over the Ukraine does not seem to be an option and the EU And America have their own vested political interests to protect. If you are correct that FML can already cover all the interest payments as well as the overheads and is generating a cash surplus, then yes, the company will recover and in the medium term it may well be very successful. But I don't think this is the case, if it is the case, the BOD should release a detailed production, sales and cash-flow update, why wouldn't they? There hasn't been one since December last year, almost 9 months ago. The end of this year isn't very far away. Have you tried getting any answers from the company, what information are you relying on, and from which date?

[jascat] 04/8/2014 05:25

You seem to be confusing speculation with fact & seeing demons.
Sberbank's possible increase in cost of borrowing is reported to be 1.5 to 2%.
They have access to US & Asian markets, so I do not see that much of a problem.
FML can already cover all obligations for this year & probably by then, everything will be back to normal.
As for interest cover, as they are covering all operating & overhead costs when producing 1702 tons, with the copper from the new pads 4,5 & 6, they should comfortably be able to pay interest, especially having paid off a hefty chunk of debt with the proceeds of the asset sale.
My average is around 2p. It may take you a little longer to get to your 6.5p, but I am sure it will get there.

[hereford29] 03/8/2014 15:45

Correct, I am only speculating that UMT will not come up with the cash. Maybe they will. But UMT is only a registered company name, it isn't an operating entity. So I only have the BODs word that it is a genuine offer on which due diligence has been carried out. There is no way of checking this. I said I don't think FML are generating enough cash to pay the interest on the loans on top of the overheads so I don't think the company is cash flow positive. Do you know otherwise? If they are not, then how can they carry on, covering overheads but not interest charges isn't any good, they can't keep borrowing and never make a profit. Sberbanks cost of capital went up 16pc last week, do you think they will be likely to agree to more favourable loan terms? And How do you know the company is worth more than 3p a share after taking into account the debt? We would only know this if someone bought it, which you say isn't going to happen. But 72pc is close enough to the 75pc needed, and it would be very easy to have another 3.09pc held by friends and relatives in nominee accounts would it not? How could we know? In any event, I will lose money at under 6.5p a share, so 4p is no good to me. I'm not a trader, I invested because I believed what erlan sagadiev told me, that it would become the top independent copper producer in Kazakhstan. I haven't spoken to yerlan but I have asked questions which they don't reply to, neither directly or via investor relations, so this also makes me suspicious. I have no agenda here, I'm a shareholder and I would like to know the truth.

[jascat] 03/8/2014 06:51

Hereford. FML do not have the 75% of shares required to take the company private, unless they get more support. They have around 72%. If they did, the enterprise (takeover) value of the company is in excess of 3p per share

What facts do you have for stating UMT may not come up with the money? Sheer speculation.

The company issued an RNS last December, stating they were generating sufficient cash to cover all operating & fixed costs at Benkala. What facts do you have that this may not be true?

FML's loan commitments (capital & interest) for 2014 total $29 million, so they are covered for this period.
With the increase in copper production from the new leach pads & the repayment of a large portion of their debt, they will be in an excellent position to arrange the remaining debt over a longer period, than the short term loans they have at present.

As for Sunkar. They were virtually insolvent from 2008 when they listed on Aim.
They had no infrastructure built to process their phosphate ore & no hope of getting finance to build it.
The shares were suspended a few years ago & limped along since then.
FML has all their infrastructure built & are producing. I see no similarities.

[temmujin] 02/8/2014 17:50

youre a scaremonger...ive now put u on permanent filter so pointless replying..i suggest you find another board to play with

[hereford29] 02/8/2014 16:19

The NEDs, not ends.

[hereford29] 02/8/2014 16:18

No, I'm not trying to wind anyone up. I believe that the company will be delisted from aim, either by taking it private, or using the 75 PC unconditional offer rule, or putting it into bankruptcy after declaring that UMT were unable to come up with the cash, leaving me a shareholder in an illiquid kaz exchange registered stock - and I am trying to find a way of stopping this from happening. It's already happened to me with sunkar resources. I don't trust the board and I don't believe the ends have any control over or even full knowledge of what is actually going on. I have been saying since 2012 that the company didn't generate enough cash to cover costs and that they needed to restructure and refinance.

[temmujin] 02/8/2014 13:04

hereford is a wind up merchant..the price fell because MMs are after forced sellers due the market sell off across the board friday...they will be a big correction upwards monday...luckily i made good money going long on gold called the bottom right at 1280

[mrwindmill] 02/8/2014 08:57

Kazakstan is part of the eurasian trade pact Russia is part of the BRICS It's all out financial war from the USA as the dollar supremacy is challenged.India has refused to sign the WTO treaty. India and Russia have agreed to trade in their own currency bypassing the dollar.Russia doesn't need the West will get its capitol from elsewhere.Russia is pivoting to the east.Sanctions are going to hurt the EU unless they stop dancing to Washingtons tune.

[hereford29] 01/8/2014 21:20

The share price is falling because the company doesn't generate enough cash to cover its cost base and is mortgaged to the hilt, no-one knows if the unidentified acquirer of Naimanjal actually exists and has the cash, the credit situation in Kazakhstan is hardly going to improve for under performing over leveraged miners when the EU has put the top four Russian banks on its sanctions list, including sberbank, cutting off access to their most important capital market, and the Board has handed over the CEO role from a former dairy manager to the majority shareholder of a closed company who watches the doesn't care about the SP, corporate governance is swept under the carpet while the NEDs do nothing, they don't have a decent best practice western standard project director for be kaka and they still haven't got a finance director with a recognised ACA accounting qualification and never had have. Apart from that, it's a fantastic company, I'm proud to be a shareholder.

[cascudi] 01/8/2014 19:50

i don't understand why share price is falling. the recent news selling of asset, approval of the selling...production increase... seem good to me. the 30m$ should reduce the current liabilities to a level never seen before. are market makers playing the usual game?

[blueball] 01/8/2014 12:25

Top faller today.

[hereford29] 30/7/2014 13:22

All I can see is that it was registered in December last year just before the announcement as a real estate holding company in Lux, so one can assume it was registered for the purpose of the transaction announcement. As the company isn't an operating business, it is a front by definition. Whether for a legitimate business, or a front for money laundering, or even as a front for the back of Frontier by way of a related party transaction, unless Frontier disclose it, I doubt we can find out. While in theory there is a responsibility for due diligence by the company and a requirement for the same by its' advisors, in practice I think it is easy enough to make this impossible. I suppose the owners would argue that it isn't material, as long as they get the cash.

[jascat] 30/7/2014 11:10

I tried to find out who they were some time ago & met a brick wall.
They are a Luxembourg company who appear to have plenty of cash to spend.
No directors are listed.
Luxembourg has a dubious banking service industry as far as laundering money is concerned.
The company could be a front for any group with iffy cash to invest.

[hereford29] 30/7/2014 10:36

Who owns UMT?

[jascat] 30/7/2014 09:51

That is about right. The debt they will be paying off, will be mostly a number of smaller high interest loans they have. FML should be able to service the remaining debt, provided copper production continues to increase as they predict.
The bulk of their debt is with Sberbank & although the interest rate is lower & subsidised by the Kazak government, it is short term debt. They need to get Sberbank to agree a longer term arrangement for repayment.
FML should be able to get such an arrangement by showing that total debt has been reduced & their ability to increase production.
With pads 4, 5 & 6 completed & in production by the end of this year, it is logical to assume copper production can only increase. These three pads contain three times as much ore, being stacked to a height of six metres.

[vizz] 30/7/2014 09:18

So to clarify, the $30 FML receive from the disposal of the Naimanjal licence area
will meet its 2014 debt repayments, leaving FML with approx $50m outstanding debt.

[jascat] 30/7/2014 08:18

Note from Halyk finance.

Yesterday, Frontier Mining announced that it had received an approval from the regulator to sell the Naimanjal license area.
The sale proceeds will be used to pay off maturing debt and finance capital expenditures at Benkala, the company's flagship asset.

Our view. The news is positive for the company as it removes the regulatory uncertainty around the deal. We believe most of the proceeds will be used to meet 2014 debt repayment obligations, which stood at $29mn as of the end of 2013. We have Frontier Mining under formal research coverage.

Halyk finance have a 3.18p 12 month target on FML.

[lord_goldsmith] 28/7/2014 14:27

Next pad should be getting built by now. 10t+ of copper a day. Now looking good.