Frontera Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 30/10/2017 07:45

There are 14.5 billion shares in issue and rising actually!

[shakyhands] 29/10/2017 23:14

How about,don't buy shares in smallish companies which aleady have over 3 billion shares in issue ?

[loglorry1] 29/10/2017 22:37

Nobull exactly the PSC is quite clear. This is not the Georgians stealing assets away it's a contract. The full PSC is not public but the terms disclosed in the admission document make it pretty clear.

FRR may have lobbied Congress but I'm sure the US would be the first to declare that a contract should be honoured by both sides.

As for PM tweets this is nothing new. The PM has been pro US UN EU for ages so what.

I do however expect some sort of deal to be done with FRR unless someone else serious wants the block instead. Given the lack of progress I doubt anyone would.

[telbap] 29/10/2017 22:23

Opps...*nobull

[telbap] 29/10/2017 22:21

The mobile the answer is very clear to me.......dont buy shares.....simples.....i have decided to take a risk, and yes the risk is high, but choose to take it. Have a nice life!

[nobull] 29/10/2017 21:52

Tickboo, hi.

"...the oil and gas programmes are fully funded."

I mean fully funded to change this from a cash guzzler to a cash gusher, i.e. to produce the gas that was going to add $24m p.a. revenue; I don't mean fully funded to drill another speculative well that may yield useful knowledge to a subsequent owner of Block 12, particularly to one who does not have to pay for that knowledge.

The production license is the only one that interests me. Why would they change the original terms of that? Lengthening an exploration license while keeping the production license expiry date the same is a very good way to transfer wealth from FRR to the Georgian Govt., particularly so, given how slowly FRR does anything and given how unyielding the geology is.

The holding of the AGM in London is a good start, but it needs the sceptical shareholders to turn up.

"There's no way the Georgians will simply take the assets from FRR when £300m or so (more with the hereby exchange rate) has been spent."

The Georgian Government has a right to take Block 12 away under the agreement FRR signed with it. The slow pace of work is FRR's fault.

[tickboo] 29/10/2017 21:15

Spotted by Ivy of LSE in the last hour – the Georgian PM tweeting that the article below should be read:http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/357609-the-new-silk-road-the-us-needs-a-free-trade-deal-with-georgiaVery relevant and very much worth a read. Can't help but think the tweet is linked to the reports of recent days. Would dearly love to know what is going on by the scenes.

[loglorry1] 29/10/2017 16:37

Eh? Take what gas? So far they've not flow tested anything of any significance.

Let's assume they do find something worth having.

Clearly some sort of spat going on but even if the license is extended it expires in 2022 doesnt it? So FRR have 4 years of production at most probably at least a year to get it on stream and so 3 years. No way this would then provide a RoI for the CAPEX required.

[noirua] 29/10/2017 12:54

2016 - In mid-January, Georgian musicians played a concert in front of hundreds of people in downtown Tbilisi to protest the government’s ongoing negotiations with Russian state energy giant Gazprom to increase imports of natural gas.
The protests were only the latest in a string of demonstrations going back to last fall, when news of government talks with Gazprom first came to light.
According to the Georgian Energy Ministry, its talks with Russia are part of efforts to boost energy supplies amid growing domestic consumption.

[ Will Gazprom move to bid for Frontera Resources and cement renewable ties with Georgia. Gazprom Neft: ]

Georgia, Gazprom Agree to New Transit Terms January 12, 2017 8:45 PM

Georgia reaches new agreement with Russian Gazprom:

[noirua] 29/10/2017 12:21

Natural Gas prices:

Oil:

[dodge city] 29/10/2017 11:55

Zaza claims to have pumped a million of his own money in here a few weeks ago. I find that very suspicious and don't really believe it.

[tickboo] 29/10/2017 11:06

Well the CEO just bought £1.5m and the oil and gas programmes are fully funded. The permits are an issue and I hope to be resolved quickly. The silence on the gas has been deafening and I assume the issue with the MoE is why and has only come to light recently. An interesting week ahead and great the AGM is in London so Zaza can be questioned. They seem more transparent now. I understand why the issue with the MoE hasn't been communicated and hopefully it'll be resolved. There's no way the Georgians will simply take the assets from FRR when £300m or so (more with the hereby exchange rate) has been spent, any ruling would go in FRR's favour but no-one wants to go that route. See how this plays out this week. A hold for me.

[nobull] 29/10/2017 10:41

Loglorry, great article. Despite my shares having 6 bagged since I last looked in here, I still need them to 30 bag just to get my original investment back, and that is without factoring in a risk adjusted return.

There are no credible plans to change this company from a cash guzzler to a cash gusher. Talk of gas pipelines with no funding or permits in place to build them I think means the management is playing the same game of just selling shares to live off other people's money, while pretending to be a bona fide oil and gas company. (I don't know what the end game is here so I don't know how BOD will get back its money).

The production license is too short to be able to get any production worth having. I think the exploration licenses that revert back to the Georgian Govt. shortly have no value without a decent length production license. Host governments, in my experience, do not give away free money to foreigners, so I wouldn't expect the Georgian Govt. to amend the original terms of the production license.

That oil analyst is dead right: there is no transparency here, and the management have no credibility. Avoid, IMO. The expiry of the exploration licenses will make it much clearer how little they have achieved (I assume the Moldova and Ukraine things are to try to make the loss of the exploration licenses in Georgia seem less of problem).

[tickboo] 29/10/2017 10:17

Looks like Zaza has come up against more issues in the MoE and hopefully the intervention of 2 US congressmen will get the prime minister's attention and make sure things are resolved quickly. Not ideal they've had to go they route but the statement from the US was strong saying they don't want US and Georgian relations to be affected which should focus the mind. Again, not ideal they have had to do this but I guess time is an issue and they want this sorted ASAP.The resource is massive hence the issues. The deputy minister of energy moved to SOCAR which is interesting and I'm sure the Azers are meddling somehow. I can see it being sorted as eyes are on Georgia. An interesting post from iii - It looks like a Mexican standoff.FRR want their production licence before they prove up gas with Ud2.GOGC says prove it up then we will give it.FRR says it has when it filed it's notice of feasibility in April.GOGC says that only applied to oil (the feasibility notice made no mention of gas).FRR says the "The Notice relates to the Company's ongoing work within its Block 12"i. e. It doesn't matter whether it is oil or gas we have proved comerciality of hydrocarbons within our block, can we have our licence please...as per license agreement(whatever that may be?)And so we go around.They've spent $450m mainly exploring so I can't see them being knocked back and if it goes to arbitration it'll be done in Stockholm and would go in FRR's favour, sure no one wants to go that route.

[loglorry1] 29/10/2017 09:00

Quite an old article that but here it is anyway....

The City's number one oil analyst Zac "the knife" Phillips of share price Angel has this morning torn into much ramped AIM dog Frontera Resources (FRR). I think you can take it that what the Knife means is BARGEPOLE!. Over to the great man:

Frontera Resources – Only Now the Workover Rig?

Today's news, that a workover rig is mobilising to test the findings of a well drilled by previous licence holders is an interesting development. It begs the question as to why the Company is targeting it now when it obviously wasn't good enough before, it all sounds a bit chaotic.

While there is a “new” management team, and this could be the change of direction that is required, but we fail to see how anything can change the fact that the previous management team destroyed value. To our mind, there is still such a lack of transparency, that we find ourselves asking the question as to what value the Georgian assets have, and is it achievable in the real world.

We conservatively estimate that between this incarnation, and the previous one, that ~$400mm has been invested in the Georgian assets which has gotten them no further than late stage appraisal.

Against this backdrop, we fail to see how early equity investors will even make back their money, or how the Company will be funded in any meaningful way without substantial dilution, given the contempt with which the previous team treated the convertible holders.

What the Company requires is a clean slate and a complete break with the management team that oversaw the destruction in value. That can start with the “new” CEO, but it must be compete, and involve a new approach to investors.

[sux_2bu] 29/10/2017 08:53

www.shareprophets.com/views/31386/zac-the-knife-sticks-it-to-frontera-resources-it-just-does-not-add-up

[loglorry1] 29/10/2017 07:31

Noirua the current price of oil is irrelevant to FRR they produce very little.

Much more important is the question why a US Congressman has defended Frontera's license in Georgia. Tickboo tells us the relationship with the MoE is great right now. Why would a US Congressman need to defend FRRs rights in that case?

[noirua] 29/10/2017 01:56

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