Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 14/12/2016 13:06

PM miners are like coiled springs waiting for the flag to go down. Then blast off!

[topicel] 14/12/2016 12:05

Changed your mind then DT? Only ten days ago you were reckoning no hike.

Nothing has changed macro or otherwise, if anything the percentage certainty dropped from 99 to 95 or something irrelevant.

Anyway, as you do also say now, the detail is key. The accursed dot plot...and all her wittering on afterwards that for some reason everyone pores over.

If PMs don't bounce I suspect the cartel will still be dumping paper until Trump takes away the keys to the Fort Know vault. But just maybe they will see sense, close out now and let everyone be for a happier Xmas.

Topicel

[dt1010] 14/12/2016 08:58

Rate hike yes 25 basis points I reckon.

Its what they say about next year in terms of approach to hiking rates that counts.

They will be careful what they say (hike them in a measured way etc) so as not to deflate the bond market too fast).

[shakeypremis] 14/12/2016 08:41

How many times have we heard that though?

[ukgeorge] 14/12/2016 08:36

its near enough 100% on

[shakeypremis] 14/12/2016 08:32

Rate hike today? Yes or no? I really don't know. I'm going to stick my neck out and say no.

[stevea171] 14/12/2016 08:14

Double bottom here yesterday?

[goldenshare888] 14/12/2016 07:14

I think the mega bounce will come in early 2017 DT.

Positioned and waiting patiently.

Adding on pullbacks, such as FRES.

:)

[dt1010] 13/12/2016 20:25

I'd like to think 1000p won't come. All to play for tomorrow. They will need to crater silver for that to happen.

Here's to the mega bounce for the whole sector.

[blueball] 13/12/2016 09:23

1000p is the low wont be long now.

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2016 09:21

1000p then fill ur boots.

[goldenshare888] 13/12/2016 08:11

Think you have answered your own question there shakey!

I hold way more HOC than FRES.

Good luck.

:)

[shakeypremis] 13/12/2016 07:24

The bounce here is going to be pretty big if silver and gold resume their respective upward marches. I don't know which to hold, HOC or FRES. I've got quite a few First Majestic (Toronto variety) so perhaps some more exposure to gold mining through HOC would be advisable. Having said that I do think silver is going to give more gains than gold.

[hectorp] 12/12/2016 18:15

Surprised Fres not up today, HOC up strongly. Perhaps or no doubt, different factors are at play in each of these stocks. FR is not up, suggesting HOC has some favourable wind of it sown.

[topicel] 12/12/2016 16:45

Absolutely. Rotation is the name of the game. Many were wrong footed by the Trump win and didn't bail soon enough and join the euphoric DOW and bank/miner rises.

They always come back. Cyclical and all that.

This time last year Fresnillo was not much above £6 so it all depends on when you jumped on board I guess. These sort of levels do seem about right for now...

Topicel

[stevea171] 12/12/2016 14:59

Topicel. Yes, a valid point. However, the liquidity here means that institutions can move funds quickly in size to the PM silver/gold space which they can't easily do with small cap or medium cap miners.

A £1.2 million buy here (100k shares) is hardly going to be noticed or move the price much, so £6 million can be invested by an institution in a week or perhaps even in a day or two to re-position a portfolio very quickly.

Very soon institutions will be re-positioning for 2017 and this is likely to mean throwing out some of the over valued Dow/S&P500/Ftse100 common stocks and moving into under valued sectors like PM's that should do well in 2017.

[topicel] 12/12/2016 14:35

Stevea, while the nine day surge from £12 to £20 is of course accurate, there was the little matter of chaos surrounding Brexit at the heart of that price action mate.

I know none of us can foresee the next 'event' but obviously it needs to be pretty massive to have that kind of result. Anyone care to hazard a guess?

Ma Yellen not hiking? Or doing a measly 0.25 and in her conference suggesting political and global uncertainties remain and the Fed must remain cautious, blah, blah blah.

Ensuing toys out of the prom could do it?

Topicel

[discodave4] 12/12/2016 13:05

dimitriThanks.Never easy to sell at a loss but have to accept you don't always call it right. My oilers are negating the loss thankfully.Will see how this goes, £10 may provide some strong support?.Good luck all.DD

[goldenshare888] 12/12/2016 12:14

On the CHEAP indeed DT.

Best of luck.

:))

[stevea171] 12/12/2016 11:21

This FRES fall is well over done but can be retraced very quickly as seen 6 months ago - 1200p to 2000p in 9 trading days.

Egon von Greyerz 11/12/2016: The risk/reward situation for silver changed at the beginning of 2016. Silver has now reached a point where relative to gold it represents excellent value. What is particularly interesting is that silver is now in a position to move twice as fast as gold.

The Gold /Silver ratio chart below shows how it has peaked 4 times in the last 20 years at or slightly above the 80 level (gold price = 80x silver price). The last time this happened was in February 2016. Since then the ratio has fallen to 68 but this is just the beginning. It is likely that before a major correction of the ratio, it could move down to 30, which we saw in 2011 when the silver price reached $50.



The ratio can move extremely fast. In September 2010, it was at 68/1 and in April 2011 it had reached 30/1. Once the current move down in the ratio accelerates, it could reach 30/1 very quickly. Longer term the ratio is likely to reach 15/1, which is an important historical level, or it could even overshoot to 10/1.

If gold reaches $10,000, which I believe is a minimum without hyperinflation, that would give a silver price of $665 to $1,000. These are clearly levels that sound totally unrealistic with silver currently at $17, but are likely to be achieved within 5 years or so.

What makes silver particularly interesting is its scarcity. Around 170,000 tons of gold have been produced in history and virtually all of this quantity is still around in one form or another. This is not the case with silver. There are no significant silver stocks anywhere in the world. Almost 60% of the silver produced is consumed, the rest goes to silverware, jewelry and investment. Central banks hold no silver stocks. The annual silver global silver production is 27,000 tonnes, which at $17 only equals $15 billion.

As a comparison, annual gold mine production is $114 billion. More silver has been consumed globally than has been produced for a number of years. Investment demand for silver is only $2.5 billion annually. The total size of the silver market is minuscule in relation to world financial assets. That is why it is been very easy for Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays and a few other banks to manipulate this market. Deutsche has admitted their rigging of the silver market but since they have implicated a number of other banks, we haven’t seen the end of this story, which is very likely to spread to the gold market also.

The gold/silver ratio indicates that the manipulation might soon come to an end which and that will lead to increased physical demand. That, in turn, will put the paper silver market (short positions) under severe pressure. As physical demand rises, the silver price will increase rapidly. Even today it is difficult to find big quantities of physical silver, and as price rises there will be no silver available anywhere near current prices. Any surge in demand will only be satisfied by substantially higher prices.

Silver should not be bought for speculative purposes but for long term wealth preservation. Due to the volatility of silver, 15-25% of total precious metals holdings is the right level in our view. For any investor who doesn’t hold silver, it is my strong belief that now is an excellent time to buy physical silver at a price that will never be seen again and for a journey which will be extraordinary.”

[dt1010] 12/12/2016 11:01

Just bought too.

On the CHEAP. 1150p

[goldenshare888] 12/12/2016 09:50

Just bought first tranche for target £20+ in 2017!

Plenty of dry powder IF it falls further.

I personally feel a c 42% drop from recent highs is well overdone!

[goldenshare888] 12/12/2016 09:49

Just bought first tranche for target £20+ in 2017!

Plenty of dry powder IF it falls further.

I personally feel a c 42% drop from recent highs is well overdone!