Holding without any worries whatsoever and now ticking up nicely from it's historic lows of 28p. Long way to go to get back to £4.00 but no signs of any big sellers just those lot trying to get the price back down via the order book with their algo trades. Luckily for us we can sit back an relax and let them lot sweat out the small stuff ! |
Am holding don't worry not a seller. Trend is good and steady. UK rates are down and energy cap decrease in April will add to the speed at which inflation is coming down . London real estate is looking busy again as the economy too with an interesting decentralising benefit from those not commuting as much to central London / City and Canary Wharf as local areas are now busy during the week . In the past not so much during office hours . Mind you get a tube in the morning or train and you are squished like a sardine . The one street not looking good is Oxford Circus . But not a Foxtons money earner at all |
 https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-time-reat-eman-and-foxt/Foxtons Group (LON:FOXT) A Strong Property HoldingConsidering the general state of the residential property market over the last year or so London's leading estate agency group gave out a very interesting set of full year figures on Tuesday of this week.Revenues for the year to end December 2023 were £147.1m (£140.3m), while adjusted pre-tax profits were £13.8m (£13.1m), generating 2.8p (3.0p) in earnings but maintaining its 0.90p per share dividend.CEO Guy Gittins stated that:"2023 was a year in which Foxtons has been fundamentally transformed. We have achieved a lot in a short space of time by making improvements across the business and Foxtons is now in much better shape than the company I inherited 18 months ago. We have restored Foxtons' competitive advantages by investing in core capabilities, growing fee earners and reinvigorating our culture and this has been achieved ahead of schedule. As a result, Foxtons was the UK's fastest growing large lettings and sales agency brand in the UK in 2023 and reclaimed its position as London's leading estate agency.Most importantly, we have rebuilt and strengthened the Foxtons Operating Platform. The platform is a unique, industry-leading and proprietary asset which will underpin our future growth and, due to its scalability, will provide Foxtons with the capability to expand and consolidate across our industry.Our strategy to deliver growth through sales market cycles by delivering Lettings growth is working, delivering resilient earnings for the year despite a weak sales market and the investment we made in fee earners. We are on track against our medium-term target of delivering £25m to £30m of adjusted operating profit, through organic and acquisitive growth and supported by improving market conditions."Analyst Greg Poulton at Singer Capital Markets rates the group's shares as a Buy with an upgraded Price Objective of 88p (63p) per share.For the current year his estimates are for £158.3m revenues, profits of £17.0m, earnings of 4.0p and paying a 1.10p dividend per share.With a portfolio of over 28,000 tenancies and growing in number, the £180m capitalised group has set itself a medium-term target of achieving a £25m to £30m adjusted operating profit.The group's shares, which have performed well since 2nd January when they were trading at 46p, closed last night at 59p.Hold very tightly, we are only days away from my 2024 Target Price of 61p being achieved, while my 2021 aim of 76p will take just a little longer to be scored. |
Indiestu: thanks for the further discussion. I have only just caught up with it, as I have been out-and-about since.
Arguably, a lot also depends as to whether one judges a stock to be in "Stage 1", "Stage 2", "Stage 3" or "Stage 4". I am referring here to Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis as expounded in his book "Secrets for Profiting from Bull and Bear Markets", published in 1988.
For me, it is by far the most useful investment book I have ever read and I recommend it highly if you are not familiar with it. Second-hand copies can be picked up from the usual sources.
FWIW, my hunch was that FOXT is entering early Stage 2 (the ideal time to be buying), but it has still to prove itself: i.e. price needs to remain above a rising 150-day moving average. |
I guess it's all about time frames. You could say we are about to complete a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly and make a lower high on the monthly. I get your point with the MA's the problem I find that is that by nature they are lagging. In an uptrend your risk is significantly lower as you are joining that trend. In a downtrend your risk is unknown as you are attempting to predict the market direction and the future. |
An important, but not exclusive, reference point for me is the relationship between 8, 20 and 50 period moving averages on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Obviously, support and resistance levels also come into the equation.
The 50 period (day) moving average is rising and providing support on the daily. On the weekly: price is above all three moving averages and all three moving averages are rising.
I am fortunate enough to be in profit with FOXT, only buying a few months ago. I can thus give things a bit of slack.
The daily chart is currently weaker than the weekly chart, admittedly. |
Out of interest what are your rules for selling on technical indicators? Why wouldn't you have sold over the last two weeks momentum divergence or MACD cross over? Why not sell and buy back on the 200 day MA at 43p? |
I definitely buy small caps on technicals and the underlying optimism but with a careful eye on how the fundamentals develop. They usually fall back very quickly if the market does not approve of the numbers and when reality is accepted. It's great to exchange viewpoints. Thank you. ?? |
Thanks for the reply. It is always good to get a sensible bearish take. I myself tend to buy/sell on the strength of technicals, so am content for now. I won't hesitate to sell if momentum stalls. |
Maybe but 400p would make a 1.2 billion market cap. For a shady lettings agent that's a little optimistic. With a 5% yoy growth in revenue that's going to take a long time. So if no growth then you are only buying for a dividend which is hardly worth taking. There are much better dividend plays out there. |
But isn't the point that FOXT has already "tanked"? The share price was once 400p. The waterfall decline on the chart has now stabilised and it looks as if price is now in an early uptrend.
That, to me, seems to correspond with reported fundamentals: (a) numbers stabilsiing; b) bullish future outlook. |
I don't understand why this hasn't tanked yet No significant improvement in revenue or profit on any measure. No dividend increase and a big debt pile in a high interest rate environment. All talk from the board and a run of poorly thought through acquisitions. Trouble ahead. Good luck. |
In line with the Edison report I believe . They had 127 best case .. |
Sales moving ahead very nicely thank you. Rents over £100m for the year and that will increase as 0-1 per cent mortgage holders bail out when it comes to re-mortgaging this year. Looking good 😊 |
Above 60 next week |
A nice close to the week after all the 'profit -taking' over the last week or so. Holders still holding and not selling a bean just MM's playing amongst themselves (not for the first time !). Roll on next week !!!! |
You've been saying that for weeks now, when exactly as I need to do my family's ISA's etc. before the end of this tax year ! :) |
35p is the level here. |
Oooooh, down for the sixth day in a row and now some 10% off its high of two weeks ago. Results next week and a bumper 'housing' budget to come the day after, looks like someone wants to add a few this morning ! Fun fact time, Moonpig.com is now valued at three times more than Foxtons !! |
Up every day last week to 3-4 year highs and down each day this week so far to negate all last weeks gains. Tree shake Friday so expect some action during lunchtime when no-one is around. As for the big sellers, erm no chance but great to top up if the shake takes place in the next few hours ! :) |
How about that then for a closing finish to the day and to the week !!! Eyes on the weekend press now ! Love it !! |
And yet another order book closing high for Foxtons since the turn of the year. Friday tomorrow and we've seen the games played here, will we see the same tomorrow ??? Could be another interesting day. |
Yep, you can spot those lot a mile off, they all give away the same sort of clues but I won't divulge here just in case I spot another undervalued company whose mkt cap has been completely destroyed to next to nothing courtsey of the US Banks and hedge funds! |
Whites and Indiestu have vanished . Those calls they made were clear bullish signs :-) Strong trend and my stops are all way in the money . Let the trend do it's job. Slow and steady . No crazy jumps unless take over at 120-150 |
Ooooh, just shy of 400,000 shares traded already this morning, more than the average daily volume of late !!! Last day of many schools half term holiday tomorrow, could be lively ahead of the weekend !!! |
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