Foresight Sustainable Fo... Share Discussion Threads

[apollocreed1] 18/12/2023 08:50

How does FSF make money? Is it just from selling lumber?

[hindsight] 01/12/2023 15:40

Know a bit about farmland which is similar and there defiantly a IHT premium. Labour talking about restricting it to genuine farmers only
Yields need to go back to pre ZIRP too
Would think 60p fair if happy with no income

[spectoacc] 01/12/2023 14:49

I've been looking for c.25 years, and you can get it cheap - if recently felled, with a replanting obligation & grant. As you say, there may be some carbon credits these days.

But the prices have always been a bit much (albeit I do now have 35 acres) because of the IHT angle. Guess you could argue 40% overvalued as a result of it. There's a whole IHT avoidance industry around forest ownership (the wood sales are also tax-free).

Yes re timber value - albeit with quite a bit of management/upkeep/insurance/felling cost along the way.

[hugepants] 01/12/2023 14:42

I'm no expert but can't say I'm aware of forestry being "hugely overvalued". I thought it was at least partly based on timber prices? There's also the carbon offsetting angle which may become increasingly important.

[spectoacc] 01/12/2023 14:01

Hmm not sure I see the attraction - forestry hugely overvalued in UK due to the IHT break. Not sure there's much mileage in having an IT buying it.

But it can't fall by more than another 61p ;) Good luck.

That RCF would cause me minor concern - they plan to pay the interest on it from timber sales & selective disposals, but that's paying the interest, not paying it off, and not giving shareholders a return.

They seem to think they should be trading at NAV - why?

[hugepants] 01/12/2023 13:42

Timber!

It's down 42% ytd now and the current discount to NAV is 36%. Yield is low at zero so not much of an attraction there. I've bought some for the discount.

[hindsight] 10/11/2023 18:49

Had on long watch list since float but always concerned overpaid, like most ZIRP induced retail ITs

Seems that cash is now exiting for deposit accounts and creating a share price worth researching

[rambutan2] 09/11/2023 16:28

Nav chopped by the inevitable correlation:

As at 30 September 2023 the Company's unaudited NAV was GBP169.2 million (31 March 2023: GBP186.6 million), resulting in a NAV per Ordinary Share of 98.4 pence, equivalent to a 9.3% reduction.

[jonwig] 13/6/2023 07:18

Interims -



Look very sound, from a cursory glance.
Look forward to dividends (carbon credit-based) from 2030!

[jonwig] 11/5/2023 07:20

Company update -



Decent NAV uplift, and carbon credits featuring strongly.

[jonwig] 30/3/2023 08:03

Portfolio activity:



Currently ungeared, which is reassuring.

[c3479z1] 22/3/2023 19:08

according to presentation last night, they think a good market will develop for carbon credits and there will be a shortage with capital appreciation by 2028. Sincerely hope the analysis will prove correct.
Impressed by the work they put into identifying land for afforestation, a painstaking multifactorial topological study by the looks of it of the whole of GB.
May be opportunities for higher and added value in Scotland though this is a long-term slow burner.

[jonwig] 02/2/2023 07:20

New research from Kepler:

[jonwig] 23/1/2023 09:34

Lack of yield could be driving this down. Renewables generally have been sold down in favour of gilts. I'm not particularly fussed.

The annual report was recently published. Download from here:



Voluntary carbon Credits (VCCs) are a potentially interesting feature.

• £0.6m progress made to date.

• I think each VCC is conservatively valued at between £14 and £35. (From AR numbers.)

• Current estate looks like it has potential worth of £14m in VCCs in addition to harvesting and land value appreciation.

There's lots more about the carbon market in the AR.

FSF provides access to a fairly uncorrelated asset class and a market which is still in its infancy but has potential. I'm happy to have around 2% of our portfolio invested here.

[cc2014] 23/1/2023 09:09

I'm not bothered about the yield. It takes 35 years to grow a tree and you can't cut a few branches off each year for the dividend.

To me the total return is more important than yield although I get some people want a steady income stream (although you could sell something each year to achieve the same)

At the margin as a 20% tax payer, the CGT is more than the dividend rate although before Mr Hunt got greedy the CGT allowance was helpful.


96p to buy as I write. I'm not sure what I think about that. Catching falling knifes is difficult. Based on the US price of Lumber which I know is a bad proxy but the best proxy I have right now 96p doesn't look exciting to me. I could be wrong, that happens reguarly.

[gateside] 21/1/2023 20:23

The lack of dividend, has always put me off investing here too.

[hindsight] 20/1/2023 19:58

My view too CC2014, no yield is not a selling point at present

[cc2014] 20/1/2023 11:41

This has lost its froth and we are getting back close to the IPO price.

I like this fund, but I struggle to value it with confidence.

There don't seem many buyers around and I'm not tempted yet.

[jonwig] 19/1/2023 08:13

They've spent up:



The next fundraising might be delayed!

[c3479z] 16/12/2022 10:36

yes, but I understand the WCC has introduced more stringent tests for creation of PIUs and subsequent WCCs. Will FSF be able to certify their created afforestation carbon credits through another agency? Same problem faced by all forestry commercial afforestation projects.

[jonwig] 16/12/2022 08:32

Use them a bit like scrip dividends - alternative to cash for those who can use them. (Suggested in the article.)

[c3479z] 15/12/2022 20:02

yes, but will the additionality hurdle represent a barrier to obtaining carbon credits or will the company be able to trade carbon credits independent of the WCC?

[jonwig] 15/12/2022 17:42

Thanks, here's the link:



I carbon credit = $40 - $80/t, and they expect to earn about 1 million in the first afforestation wave.

[c3479z] 15/12/2022 16:51

Interesting article about carbon credits on Kepler intelligence majoring on FSF.
Not sure I understand how this will work in practice if the WCC doesn't relent over the afforestation changes it has introduced.

[jonwig] 15/12/2022 08:24

FY results issued after hours yesterday:



Not best practice!

Looks good on a first reading. Includes a lot on carbon markets and climate-related issues, which I ought to be reading but haven't done!