Foresight Sustainable Fo... Share Discussion Threads

[mw8156] 28/3/2022 15:53

no mention and little reference in the Countryfile piece to the difference in carbon capture between forestry and hill/dairy/arable farming or the prospect that farming and the rural economy may undergo a radical change in the next 20 years.Thought Kelly could have made a stronger case for Foresight's forestry investment but suspect his interview was edited and about 3 times as much prominence was given to the local who wanted to buy the farm.
No wonder people find Clarkson's farm more authentic than the BBC's program though must confess to not having access to Clarkson's so haven't seen it,

[jonwig] 28/3/2022 10:58

Interesting - did he mention the environmental stewardship paybents he'd be getting, or whether he planned to operate a B&B?

[mw8156] 28/3/2022 10:25

Costing the earth radio 4 program about the local opposition to Foresight's afforestation farm purchase in West Wales,
Countryfile BBC1 about a local resident not getting a chance to purchase a farm in Pembrokeshire because 'big business and corporate interests' are able to outbid with their big bucks.
Interviewed the Foresight manager ? Kelly but the latter piece was unbalanced, failed to mention that UK is among the least forested countries in Europe, is dependent on imports for 80+% of its timber requirement, the problems farmers will face in making a return from eg sheep farming or, in times to come, dairying, if synthetic milk eg Perfect Day takes off,not to mention the costs associated with fertiliser and other cost pressures so usual very disappointing BBC bias.

[livewireplus] 25/3/2022 19:42

RNS from yesterday : Announcement of two acquisitions, now 91% deployed

[jonwig] 17/3/2022 07:10

Col - I don't see much market risk, if any. And probably returns won't be high or consistent.

The main risks for me are unquantifiable: fire and disease. They have said it would be too expensive to insure against such things.

[gbcol] 16/3/2022 13:18

Not sure why anyone would sell at what was most likely a near 10% loss but regardless will be good if we are shot of them and can start moving forwards. I’ve been adding since IPO, so averaged down nicely but I’m here for the long term divi and hopefully some cap growth.

It’s a bit of a speculative one but I like the principle of what they are trying to do.

[cc2014] 16/3/2022 13:04

I'm pleased to see this finally creeping up. Looks like whoever was selling at around 91p is finally done. It's not before time.

[gateside] 08/3/2022 08:41

Thanks guys.I'll keep this in the watchlist for now.Currently invested in numerous renewable funds, but looking to add similar funds to keep portfolio on the low risk side.I was impressed with the results from DORE yesterday.

[gbcol] 08/3/2022 08:13

This was in the IPO prospectus. So don’t think there is a specific divi target

“ TARGET RETURN AND DIVIDEND POLICY
The Company is targeting a Net Asset Value total return of more than CPI + 5 per cent. per annum on a rolling five year basis, based on Net Asset Value once the Company is
substantially invested.
The Company intends to invest in Forestry Assets with cash flow typically re-invested for further accretive growth.
The Company intends to pay dividends in order to satisfy the ongoing requirements under the Investment Trust (Approved Company) (Tax) Regulations 2011 for it to be approved by HMRC as an investment trust save that, in the medium term, the Group’s Forestry Assets may also generate free cash flow which the Company may decide not to re-invest and, in such case(s),the Company currently intends to distribute these amounts to Shareholders.”

[jonwig] 08/3/2022 08:11

I seem to remember reading that they will pay dividends only when they have the income to support them. I wouldn't expect any dividend for quite a while, and then only sporadic.

[gateside] 08/3/2022 07:57

jonwig - or anyone else

Do you know what the proposed dividend yield might be here?

[jonwig] 08/3/2022 07:12

Full and detailed update (87% of IPO funds invested):

[cc2014] 03/3/2022 11:42

Have we finally broken the back of the seller?

[jonwig] 18/2/2022 08:26

Gateside - I think they've just the one in Wales which they haven't planted yet.

But the bigger picture is that we're going to get more of these events, so one year isn't all that relevant. A bigger risk is fire, and they say in the prospectus that some risks are too expensive to insure.

My own (semi-scientific) thoughts are that most uprooted trees are solitary and either aged or diseased. A newly-planted forest has more elastic saplings which can bend, and let the air through. A more mature forest could suffer damage at the front facing the wind, I've walked in woods where there's little noticeable wind, but it's raging outside.

[gateside] 17/2/2022 19:22

What percentage of their forestry is in Wales, where the worst of tomorrow's storm will hit?

[jonwig] 05/2/2022 07:29

FSF features in this article:



I didn't know that the SLI trust was also involved in afforestation.

[jonwig] 25/1/2022 07:23

Detailed and interesting update:



I haven't followed carbon credits as an investment theme, but it could be quite a profitable area.

[cc2014] 12/1/2022 14:57

There is something I don't understand here.

The fund was launched on 01/12 when the lumber price was $884 but even then it had been rising from $500 in the weeks whilst the IPO was taking place

Today lumber is $1205

[jonwig] 07/12/2021 11:15

The acquisitions yesterday were priced at £18,400/ha and £11,300/ha. The target portfolio is at £15,545/ha.

This might be pretty meanningless, like comparing house prices in Surrey and Sheffield. But trends might develop, and the timber price might be a bit relevant.

[jonwig] 06/12/2021 07:34

Acquisitions:



But not really - the BFL funds have bought the assets and FSF has options to acquire the funds. The problem is that didn't raise enough cash to do the job cleanly (about £10m short).

At least FSF will be fully-invested pretty quickly and keen to raise more money as soon as it can.

[cc2014] 03/12/2021 13:32

It's hard to tell Chucko. The MM's are really messing around with large trades. Some seem to be getting reporting instantly, some 2 hour delayed. Sometimes 10k is considered a large trade, sometimes it isn't.

It's so bad my trade from Wednesday morning finally got reported after the closing bell yesterday. My buy of course looks 100% like a sell.

It is my best guess, some of these "sells" going through at 91.5 aren't sells at all but MM to MM trades and also my guess that the volume being provided to new buyers isn't being provided from an on-going seller but is coming from one MM who absorbed the sells from the forced seller on the way down.


The trade detail is interesting and an intellectual challenge but tbh it's not a good use of my time. I would thing Foresight and the owners of the shares will want the NAV back close to 100p for 31st December for the year end stuff including bonus time.

[chucko1] 03/12/2021 12:47

I agree, although there still seems to be a large seller with more to do, but at a more considered pace.

[cc2014] 03/12/2021 12:06

Looks like we are on our way now

[chucko1] 02/12/2021 13:33

CC, the picture you are painting seems pretty credible. Many thanks.

[cc2014] 02/12/2021 13:17

#21 I agree. Looks like one holder selling against the flow of all other trades.

Not so sure the holder ever read the prospectus. As discussed earlier in the thread looks to me more like someone buying on credit to stag them and now they can't put up the capital and are a forced seller. Clearly they aren't being margined out completely as it seems like they've decided they are in no particular hurry as long as they are getting 89.05. (which might fit with my buy from yesterday morning at 89.2p which still hasn't been published, although I'm wondering if it has been put through after hours yesterday as there is one for the same volume but at a different price)