Focusrite Share Discussion Threads

[tim1478] 01/10/2023 21:09

I think this is is difficult to asses but the chart is encouraging. It looks as though the support at around 425 has been respected and is now in a trading range. A break above 600 would be encouraging. I will look to buy if price falls to 480 and would consider buying if there is a break north of 600

[tudes100] 17/9/2023 23:15

Might have to temper my hopes of a slight beat for FY23 as having looked at the FY22 results in more detail there was a decent sized exchange gain reflected in finance income (due to USD strength) that is unlikely to be repeated. Will also be a tick up in bank charges due to increase in level of average debt they were running with over the FY. I noticed consensus broker forecasts on sharepad were revised from 39p to 38.8p so I'm expecting FY EPS in line.

[74tom] 14/9/2023 10:13

Good call on the H2 EPS - if they beat H222 for revenue & margins improved then you'd think EPS would be similar. Agree on FY24 comps, I also note that they released their new Scarlett model on 31/08 and online reviews look excellent.

No stock available online - I think this has bottomed and could now recover nicely towards the 200DMA at £6.20, after that the next resistance is the uptrend line at £7 which was broken in March.

[tudes100] 14/9/2023 09:08

Agree, was expecting a H2 miss but think its got the potential to surprise despite them guiding to lower end of expectations. H1 adj EPS was 18p, they need to do H2 EPS of 21p to hit consensus fcast. In FY22 H2 they did 24.9p adj dil EPS on £19.5m EBITDA. Assuming they come in at lower end of expectations EBITDA for H2 TY would be £20.1m.
Given we're already 6 weeks into the new FY and they have some very soft comparables in H1 after the channel inventory issues LY I think the next 6 mths could be more interesting.

[74tom] 14/9/2023 08:27

Full year TU a lot better than I expected - trading at less than 8x adjusted EBITDA seems exceptionally cheap. I remember first looking at TUNE way back in November 2017 when shares traded at just under £3, turnover for FY17 was £66m with £13m in EBITDA.

So the business fundamentals have roughly tripled over the last 6 years yet it's trading only 60% higher... That's some serious multiple compression which will surely start to unwind over the coming months?

[ozzietom] 26/7/2023 08:03

The interesting part with regards to yesterdays jump and prior recent jumps, is that they have been on the back of relatively very high volumes. This share is normally very lightly traded, as over 70% is held by either the founder (Phil Dudderidge) or a handful of institutions e.g. Sandford de Land, Liontrust. The daily volume is normally around the 20k - 30k range. Yesterdays volume was over 170k and on jumps over the last few weeks has been on bigger volumes. Maybe someone building a stake. Quite possible one of the funds buying more as money flows back into these funds.

Have to think it is undervalued at these prices, but that's just a personal opinion (DYOR). No doubt, revenues have been down in comparison to Covid related peak. However, this company still is a leader in the fields it is involved with, so think the long term outlook is still solid.

[epicwarlock] 25/7/2023 14:57

Yeah, nice rise....wonder what's behind it....I find that this share can be a bit of a black box with fairly limited news flow

[tudes100] 21/7/2023 03:05

+19% in last 5 trading days

[tudes100] 15/7/2023 00:19

Bumping along the bottom atm, you've been able to buy at 425-429p all week & given the spread on TUNE is often significant I'm not sure it's telling us too much other than it's out of favour. The lack of news flow is always frustrating and contributes to the lack of interest as well imo.
Going forward it's worth remembering H124 is going to have very soft comparables to beat so HY24 results could be excellent assuming the macro situation does not worsen significantly. I've got a very small starter position but I'm watching closely as clearly there is a huge amount to like here with their portfolio of brands.

[rp19] 14/7/2023 22:28

I share a similar thesis and am a bit surprised at the extent of the share price fall. A market leader with a quality track record. The chart is awful but perhaps will form a base at £4. I'd like to think there is plenty of value at the current price but maybe I am missing something too.

[epicwarlock] 26/6/2023 12:34

Price moving down on the back of a bit of buying action today....do I have this right?

[jolomo] 12/6/2023 17:52

EW I sold out after contact with CFO caused me to doubt management. Won't look to re-enter until I feel comfortable they tick the honesty & competence boxes.

[epicwarlock] 12/6/2023 17:25

Very quite here, folksAnyone have any thoughts at present?

[rp19] 17/5/2023 12:11

I asked if they would consider including expectations within their communications and gave examples of other companies doing this. No specific answer was given but the CFO said she would "certainly pass on the feedback to the Board as part of our half year results review and ensure that they are aware of your concerns". Let's see what happens going forward reporting/communication wise.

[epicwarlock] 02/5/2023 11:31

I'll write tooThere's value to be unlocked here surely, even if just via enhanced communication practices/ transparency/ earnings forecast expectation ranges

[jolomo] 02/5/2023 06:00

Tudes. That is a point point I raised when contacting company. Bizarre choice and not one I've seen before. Would encourage anyone here with concerns to contact company as the more feedback they get the more likely they are to make the necessary changes.

[tudes100] 02/5/2023 01:55

I'm a little puzzled about the video of the results presentation. It was clearly done by the team at Investor Meets Company as its the same individual doing the intro & the summary at the end but it hasn't appeared on the IMC website and was not communicated prior to investors who follow the company. I really don't understand why the TUNE management team made the decision to just put it on their own website and not share with the wider private investor audience. Given the company needs a higher profile in the market it seems like a really odd decision.

[jolomo] 30/4/2023 05:05

RP19. Yes definitely worth going back to her on this as that's rubbish. Minimum they should offer is to inform what the range of expectations is and if they are line, or not. Good practice would be to put Broker forecasts on their Corp website.

[rp19] 29/4/2023 21:20

Jolomo - I also wrote with similar concerns and got a similar reply. Said they will review future communications and are updating their corporate website. We'll see!

The CFO said that they do not include specific expectations in their communications as this is market practice. I think this is inaccurate as there's are plenty of companies that do provide guidance within their comms and I will get back to her on this.

[jolomo] 28/4/2023 18:20

Just for info I wrote to company this morning to voice concerns re lack of clarity & also pressed for better retail investor engagement. CFO just replied stating will take my suggestions to Board & hopefully we should at least get an Investor Company Meet for retail shareholders.

[tudes100] 28/4/2023 02:55

Morning EW, re page 8...they obviously don't get EPOS sales from their retailers so registrations is the best way for them to gauge what consumers are actually buying vs the product that they are selling in to these retailers & other re-sellers.
If they were seeing a 7% decline in this bi-month it might suggest they've actually gained share as their market data (which is largely US centric) suggests that in calendar H2 the music market is down 8.6%. It's a bit of a loose comparison as they are comparing a bi-month (Nov/Dec) with a six month period but it's probably the best they can do to assess market share.
TUNE has always been illiquid as the founder has held such a significant stake. Dudderidge has reduced this over time but it can still mean that share movements can be accentuated in both directions. The last short position reflected on shorttracker went under 0.5% in Sept 22 so there is no further data available after this point.

[epicwarlock] 27/4/2023 16:11

Thanks for posting the presentationThought this was a bit more positive and descriptive than the results communication actually Not sure I fully follow p8. charts & data, but if it means holding market share in a sluggish market, while clearing inventory build-up, then can't really complain when it comes to the sustainability of this company. Although if it's in a slow growing market, then we can never really expect stellar organic growth &/ growth-stock PE multiples.I'm positive about the diversity of the portfolio now and the various fairly recent acquisitions look really positive.It's obviously difficult to swallow the losses this week and it feels a bit overdone perhaps. I plan to hold these for the long term all the same.I must be missing something and would love to hear thoughts.Perhaps someone has visibility on the order book/ any overhang/ any shorting etc in case any of.thoae dynamics may be amplifying the recent movementsGLA

[jolomo] 27/4/2023 06:03

Thanks for flagging presentation. I'll have a look later.
Your 34.4p chimes with my guess of 30p-36p, so we are in a similar ballpark. Hoping we are both being too pessimistic. Management have a credibility problem here if we are correct as were guiding on track in March.