Focusrite Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 26/11/2018 07:12

To clarify, I am not talking about 2018 H2 vs 2018 H1, I am talking about 2018 H2 vs 2017 H2.

[tomyumgoong] 26/11/2018 04:58

The last 2 posts have baffled me a bit. In my opinion H1 sales should be better than H2 sales as they include the Christmas trading period, and also Chinese New Year period. Revenue is, and should be weighted towards this half for these reasons. Notation is primarily a consumer product so H1 sales should be higher than H2. Having worked in the luxury goods retail sector for many years, this mix makes perfect sense!

[ottrott] 24/11/2018 17:27

Effortless Cool,

Looking back to 2016 and 2017 there was also a fall in Novation sales H2 vs H1.
17H1 9604k, 17H2 925k8, 3.6% drop.
16H1 7287k, 16H2 6369k, 14.4% drop.

Maybe this is just a seasonal variation for the Novation product line.

[effortless cool] 24/11/2018 11:58

I sold out of TUNE over the course of last week. Whilst my valuation model still suggests they are fair value, I see more downside than upside potential at present.

The risk for me comes from the potential lack of top line growth that is needed to justify the PE rating. The fact that constant FX revenue growth for 2018 FY was 15.3%, compared to 26.0% for 2018 H1, tells a story about 2018 H2. The culprit was the Novation segment, where constant FX revenue in H2 was actually down 6.6% on the prior period.

The results state that the first few months of this year have been "broadly similar" to last year. Broadly similar actually means slightly behind, and so a significant improvement is needed over the balance of the year just to deliver Edison's projected 3.9% growth, which is hardly inspiring in itself.

On balance, although I still like the business, I prefer to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2018 22:26

Mentioned in shares mag today. Broker £5 target

[martywidget] 22/11/2018 19:51

From a couple of days ago:
{Registration required} Small Cap Value Report (Tue 20 Nov 2018) - KCOM, AO., TUNE, PLUS
Tuesday, Nov 20 2018 by Paul Scott

[martywidget] 20/11/2018 11:58

Focusrite Plc reports growth across all its key regions as profits soar
Published on 20 Nov 2018
Tim Carroll, chief executive of Focusrite PLC (LON:TUNE), spoke to Proactive London's Andrew Scott following the release of its results for the year to the end of August 2018.




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[hydrus] 20/11/2018 08:12

I think on reflection DiscoDave's previous analysis was pretty good.

[hydrus] 20/11/2018 08:10

Really? The quote from the results is in my post.....they seem confident of some growth over full year but results to date this year are similar to last. Very good results as I said an excellent company but this year they may not do that much. Essentially I'm betting that the shares won't do a lot over the next few months but I may be wrong. I'll keep a close watch and expect I'll be holding them again in due course.

[tomyumgoong] 20/11/2018 07:53

Hydrus,Ref your quote 'They confirm lack of growth to date in current year today.'Where in today's RNS does it state this?Am I missing something? (Rhetorical question)Looks like a pretty good set of results to me!

[hydrus] 20/11/2018 07:20

TUNE is an excellent company with very high quality metrics but I confess to having sold out in recent market turmoil as with little growth anticipated in short term I thought my money might be better put elsewhere. They confirm lack of growth to date in current year today.'As anticipated, trading in the first few months of this financial year has been broadly similar to the results achieved in the same period last year.'I'll keep watching this closely as I expect within the next year or two they will manage to ramp up growth again.

[mctmct] 08/10/2018 14:09

Tudes

54.2% free float according to Stockopedia. That shouldn't be a problem, but the NMS of 1500 shares could well be.

[tudes100] 08/10/2018 12:26

Doesn't take too much to move the share price given the free float & lots of sellers out today

[heitzy] 08/10/2018 12:02

What's happening with this share price - dropping like a stone!

[tomyumgoong] 22/9/2018 09:54

DiscoDave4I have calculated that revenue will be down on H1 by about £1m however up on previous H217 by about £3mTherefore compared to last years H2 profits should also be up! The company states that the revenue mix has changed due to better Christmas trading!

[discodave4] 22/9/2018 08:58

Tudes,Sorry didn't see that. So a drop in H2 earnings compared to H1.DD

[tudes100] 21/9/2018 22:43

see post 328

[discodave4] 21/9/2018 22:16

What do you think year end eps will be?

[tudes100] 21/9/2018 02:30

Hi Tom, yes, in my opinion I think they'll comfortably beat the FY18 forecast & FY19 forecasts will then be upgraded. I can't see H2 FY18 EPS declining vs prior yr which would be required if they were only going to deliver 16.3p (basic) for FY18.

[battlebus2] 20/9/2018 13:30

Moving in the right direction this morning

[tomyumgoong] 20/9/2018 13:19

Tudes100Are you saying profitability for FY18 could be above what was guided for FY19 ??It would appear that revenue for H218 is £3m more than H217I think the figures look good but the directors could have accentuated the positives more in that trading statement instead of focusing on the macro economic climate! Put a bit of a downer on it imo!

[tudes100] 19/9/2018 00:36

DD, at HY basic EPS was +23.3%. I suspect rev's have been suppressed by US$ ex rate weakness as 60% of their rev's are billed in dollars but think their profitability will come in strongly as their production costs are largely in US$ as well.
For them to do 16.3p (basic) in the year in line with the broker fcst, H2 would need to be 7.3p, a 10% decline on H2 FY17. Not going to happen imo, would suggest we'll see 17-17.5p for FY18 making a nonsense of the FY19 forecasts.
Only one broker covering to my knowledge and I think they will just be upgrading forecasts after finals.

[battlebus2] 18/9/2018 23:09

Very true RP, can’t see anything negative in today’s update. That cash will be used eventually imv

[rp19] 18/9/2018 22:16

I like the company and am happy to hold and perhaps add on further weakness. Considered statement, they throw off cash and I think there is more growth to come. Negatives include recent ish PMR sales (could be for various reasons) and on going brexit/political concerns which have mass application and are hard to quantify. Things change but at the minute not sure I would know where else to put my money if I sold.

[hydrus] 18/9/2018 21:46

Hi Dave - for me it's a company I'd expect to hold for a long time, barring a significant change in the story. I guess at times as with any other company the valuation will be quite high and other times relatively low due to vagaries of the stock market but that's not a reason to change my view. I'm not sure I'd base my investment decision on a broker forecast in any case.