Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 02/5/2013 08:18

Absoloutely, im very happy with that.

[battlebus2] 02/5/2013 07:39

Yes excellent indeed Rivaldo, a great company to hold long term imv.

[rivaldo] 02/5/2013 07:19

Excellent trading statement - the emphasis on "good growth and value" and the good start to 2013 confirms it's going to be another fine year for this quality company. We knew about the Olympics contract, so some H2 weighting was always likely:



"James Fisher has started 2013 well and trading to date has been in line with management expectations.

Operational Overview

Specialist Technical has made a positive start to the year with ship to ship transfer volumes remaining strong and with an increase in the order book for our marine products and ports businesses. Offshore Oil continues to see increased demand both in the North Sea and in the fast growing markets of Brazil, Africa and Asia. The newly acquired Divex business is trading well and has now received a letter of intent for a major Saturated Diving System. Marine Oil, our coastal tanker business, continues to trade as expected.

The absence of last year's major Olympic contract and fewer projects within our Defence business, will weight growth this year more to the second half. But with its strong balance sheet, proven strategy and focus on the fast growing offshore and marine services markets across the world, James Fisher remains well placed to produce good growth and value for our shareholders."

[roddiemac2] 01/5/2013 22:08

mechanical trader

I have only said what I think : no offence meant.

The only thing I am a member of is the human race; the species that once thought the world was flat.

If you think it is necessary to do technical analysis , that is fine .I don`t see the need .All the info. is already in my brain.

interceptor 2

dangerous for you perhaps : not for me.

[interceptor2] 01/5/2013 20:20

I wish now that I hadn't posted my chart and my thoughts, if I had known it would have caused this sort of reaction on the thread. I think I will keep my own counsel from now on, apart from the sentence below.

FWIW, I use both fundamental and technicals, it's important to use both imo, and dangerous to use one in isolation.

ic2...

[bouleversee] 01/5/2013 17:39

mechanical trader -

I think you mean "you're" not "your".

Bouleversee

((ignorant (don't understand your graphs and don't even know what TA stands for), obviously pompous, member of The Motley Fool, though I'm not aware of any gang. I am, however, making a bomb on FSJ; pure luck, of course.))

[mechanical trader] 01/5/2013 14:23

roddiemac....you should know then
that your an ignorant pompous t--t.

I bet a pound to a penny your one of
the Motley Fool Gang.

[mechanical trader] 01/5/2013 03:14

Still long here thought Id add
my 2 penneth.

Anyone who ignores TA ignores it
at their peril.

And yes most of the time it is self
fulfilling and therefore just as good for
forecasting going forward as backwards for
back testing.

One has only to look at the volume to see
an important technical event occured.

As you can see from my chart the share price hit the fib 38% retrace line and buyers moved in.

No reasons to panic and Im adding more tomorrow.

[cfro] 30/4/2013 16:26

Looking good for another little top-up.

[rivaldo] 30/4/2013 15:48

Nice coverage on p.40 onwards of FSJ in this new report from Hardman (other good companies covered include RNWH, SID and HVN):



Intro:

"Marine services
James Fisher has weathered the recession increasing EPS by 183% (FY06-
FY12, 16% CAGR). Moreover, FY12 results highlight that growth is being
maintained. Revenues were +18% and EPS +15%, helped by expansion in AsiaPac and other developing regions. Crucially the outlook remains robust.

Positives (strategic): James Fisher has been transformed from being a UKfocused
owner of marine assets into an international provider of specialist
engineering services.

etc"

[bouleversee] 29/4/2013 22:54

Roddiemac -

I also hold Fenner and bought more when they dropped not long ago, after which they went up but then dropped again. Another one I won't be selling in a hurry as I think they are another good company. British Polythene is another one which one hears little about but has done extremely well for me; again, I bought more when they were down.

[roddiemac2] 29/4/2013 22:14

battlebus2

the unusually high number of my posts today has more to do with being confined to quarters with a chest infection than anything else : inexcusable , but hence my irritation. As you say " Nowt wrong with this company "

[battlebus2] 29/4/2013 21:55

Don't know what the fuss is about , we have up days and some down days surely we all know that. Nowt wrong with this company infact it's one of the best run on the entire market so be patient and you will be rewarded as ever. Those who bought in a few years ago could not be complaining now.

Roddiemac we all appreciate your insight.

[roddiemac2] 29/4/2013 21:23

interceptor 2

I am fond of saying that a chart is a line on a bit of paper , and only reliably tells you what you should already know: what has happened.

I am not dismissing them out of hand, but I have never looked at one in twenty years . I don`t think it is a good idea to encourage a beginner to think that " understanding " charts is the way forward. They are no substitute for common sense and your own thinking based on research.

A beginner should put all their effort into understanding a company and the markets it operates in . They should also be prepared to sit on paper losses when the story is still strong. I think I have demonstrated that above.

[interceptor2] 29/4/2013 20:35

SinkerSimon, I have just taken a look at the FSJ chart, and thought I would mention a few thoughts about where to place a stop on an initial purchase at 1100p which might be of interest.

The first area of support now is at 1000p on the 50ma line, this is 9% lower than 1100p. I can see FSJ bouncing off this line, but I wouldn't be comfortable with a stop here.

Lower trend line support is at 950p, but I would prefer to have three low points to have worked the line from. So I wouldn't use it in this case.

There are two other support areas imo. 1st March low at 870p and the 200ma line at 850p. The 870p support would be my choice which is 21% below 1100p purchase price. This may sound like a large percentage stop/loss, and other charts will vary with some strong support areas being as low as 8%, but I think the trick is to decide which support is the strongest, then adjust the initial investment amount to your comfort level, so in the rare ocassions when a stop at strong support is taken out, it can't hurt the portfolio too much. You can always add more higher up and in the mean time get a feel for the stock.

One point worth making is that market makers have a very good idea where most PIs place their stops, so best not to place them too close to the area of support. For example the 1000p 50ma support looks strong, but the MMs might just dip the price below this level for a few days to take some stops out.

Only my opinion, but hopefully it might help.

Regards ic2...

[roddiemac2] 29/4/2013 19:53

bouleversee

" I'd quite like them to come down a bit more so I can bed and isa another chunk."
That is the way to play it .

Just about anything is possible with stock markets . Witness the paranoia associated with the credit crunch. Investors in FSJ were paying just over 500p before the crunch, which was indiscriminate in its effect on prices. FSJ dropped to around 300p, and I picked up more at between 305 and 380p. It took until October 210 before the price cleared 500p. again , but the important lesson here is that anyone paying 500p just before the crunch has still doubled their money now, without taking dividends into account: not a bad result in under five years.

Many companies went down much more than FSJ. Fenner, which is something of a bell weather stock, went from about 200p to about 35p ( from memory : it might even have been more) I sold my entire holding in 2007 at about 207p and bought back some at 42p in march 2009, but I weakened and sold them at 90p three months later . I had begun not to believe my own judgement, and thought the market must know better .The shares subsequently went to about 440p .The market was way out at 35p

Whatever markets do , and they could be volatile, FSJ still looks interesting: some of the markets they operate in are likely to see high growth.

SinkerSimon

I am glad you did not take offence. I can be abrasive. Nobody always buys at precisely the right time.

[bouleversee] 29/4/2013 18:30

Roddiemac2 -

Don't you dare give up posting here. We all need your input. I'm neither a ramper nor a deramper and I'd like to think I'm not totally stupid but nor do I think I understand everything about the stockmarket and still have a lot to learn so keep posting, please!

[philprofit] 29/4/2013 17:43

Hi All- FYI- I'm sure you know-

"Interim Management and AGM statement will be released on Thursday 2nd May"

I'm staying in... Let's see what Thursday brings...

[sinkersimon] 29/4/2013 17:16

Roddiemac2

I am new to this so I genuinely appreciate your comments.

[bouleversee] 29/4/2013 17:12

When they had quite a big dip some years ago I bought more and am glad I did. If the family hadn't got quite so many between us, I'd buy more now. I'd quite like them to come down a bit more so I can bed and isa another chunk.

[roddiemac2] 29/4/2013 17:11

SinkerSimon

I did not say 10% , I said more than 10% . I don`t want to influence you, but 25% would be more realistic. Read carefully. ---" I can't see any reason for the current slump " You are looking for logic where there is none. Markets are often illogical .The share price is falling because there are more sellers than buyers on the day . So what ? If you were confident in your research , you would not bother too much about what others do.

I am going to give up reading and posting on bulletin boards : reason--- too many rampers , derampers , and the plain stupid .

No offence meant.

[sinkersimon] 29/4/2013 16:57

Roddiemac2

Thanks again. Yes 10% is the figure I had in mind too and it's still got quite a way to go for me, so just a question of holding my nerve. I must admit I'm toying with the idea of buying more since I can't see any reason for the current slump!

[roddiemac2] 29/4/2013 16:38

SinkerSimon,

I tend not to use stop losses ( sometimes to my detriment ). All my investments have been an attempt at making money in the long term. You must make your own rules up, but if say you bought FSJ at around £11 , then a sensible stop loss would be more than 10% IMO.( markets often move by more than that in a relatively short time )

If the market in general continues to tip downwards, then it will provide opportunities to buy some good companies at better prices . It is that simple , but you have to know your companies.

[sinkersimon] 29/4/2013 16:01

Roddiemac2

Thanks for the advice, it is the medium to long term I'm interested in, but I've been trying to get out of downward trends quickly, trying to avoid RBS-type ski-slopes. Someone advised me to react quickly and get out of losses, but be slow to take profits on an upward slope. Nevertheless I do have confidence in FSJ as a well run company with good prospects.

Huudi,

You're right, thanks for straightening that out, clearly the FTSE 250 list I checked was out of date!