Filtronic Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 17/12/2018 07:22

Good commentary. To that list add TERN.

[chestnuts] 16/12/2018 23:51

Knowing

I didnt know there was a Toptraders thread as i normally buy and hold but in a bear market i have been trading, so its not me.

[knowing] 16/12/2018 23:46

Is this the same Chestnuts from the TopTraders thread who was a serial ramper and has now become a chartist?

[chestnuts] 16/12/2018 23:40

Beeks

I can show you how the past effects the future

For example my mate Pine holds ITV and i told him a few times that the share price was going down now the pattern on ITV is nearly exactly the same it starts with a head and shoulder it broke through the neck line then the 4th wave is a triangle ie a flat bottom triangle and it as broken through the bottom and now its 129 i have shorted it but i am nearly sure it will go up and test the bottom of the triangle at 140 and when it does i will open my position again the share price if i am correct will go down to 60p

[chestnuts] 16/12/2018 23:21

Beeks

When the price fell below the neckline on agm news the pattern showed a head and shoulder hence price then showed a bottom of 8.2p, top to neckline then double it gives 8.2p, but the right shoulder was a 3 wave correction then a 1 wave down then it bounced to 21.5p ish the price went past the neckline and normaly price just goes to the bottom of the neck line so then i realised that it was making a triangle which normaly is abc or abcde
So when the price went back up to 20p i guessed it was only going to be a an abc hence the chart and my remarks about the agm statement i was hoping people would take heed and take profit,

I was going to buy back in around the 9p as i was expecting the share price to bounce as i had no idea what the news was going to be , but the news was so bad it crashed the share price and i think it will go down to 5pish now which is support

[beeks of arabia] 16/12/2018 22:04

You actually stated it would bounce at 9.2, however we won't split hairs eh!

I'm sure charting "works" in some situations, however i'm still baffled as to why it predicted the news and then a drop to 7p. It's not possible, as the charting relates to past data - it can't see the future.

[chestnuts] 16/12/2018 16:39

Beeks

Did i not put a chart out just a few days before stating that FTC price was about to drop to 8 p, i stated i didnt know the news just that the news would not be good , hence the drop.

I am shorting Natural Gas at the moment and have been since the price dropped out of the symetrical triangle,

Chart patterns are there and i have spent many yrs studying them and its surprising how accurate they can be.

Going back to FTC and 5g which i know is coming its around every 10 yrs that they notch from 1g to 2g to 3g to 4g and now 5g so mixing fundies with charting works

The chart pattern when i bought into FTC was an inverse head and shoulders so i knew it was time to buy, then ftc di a golden section which predicted the top , which i took no notice of and should of as i was listening to fundies now the chart

I could go on, I am into RED at the moment and the fundies look brilliant and the retracement on the chart says its had a zig zag [attern and then a flat I added to my position at 4.75 and from here it could make triangle pattern or go straight up , i will watch and wait for news on this.

[corrientes] 16/12/2018 12:33

Surprised on the downside, but with this company, which surely csn't be totally clueless as to what's happening in their sector, could equally surprise on the up
side.I hope LOL.

[chestnuts] 16/12/2018 10:57

Teddy

I have full respect for Beeks and Kazoom, but you cant rely on other peoples work or instints and if they want to buy now so be it they know the risks, read and read and more reading.
For instance when i sold out after the Octo statement i had no idea that ftc would put out a statement like they did but, they were warning shareholders that things were not as good as the share price was indicating, and what i knew was that the charts were saying 8p or lower, Beeks didnt believe me when i posted the chart, he does now, personaly i would wait for 5p

[teddy boy1] 16/12/2018 10:43

I must admit that BEEKS and KAZOOM both seem to know what they are talking about and their posts are always worth reading. Posts such as these make forums worthwhile and whilst these posters are not always right ,their stock market experience holds them in good stead.More power to their elbows!

[kazoom] 15/12/2018 19:05

Excellent post 3073 Beeks.

Like you I sold on results day, but haven't bought back yet.

My initial reading of the phrase "the Board has commenced a review of its options for this component of the Group." as meaning sell or dispose of - especially given that the wrote off the entirety of the capitalised development spend in this area.

But on reflection I am not sure that is correct, as the start of the quoted sentence above was "However, given the importance of mMIMO to our future plans in the antenna business,"

Although I suppose you can even read that two ways : it could mean that the review is on how to 're-commercialise' mMIMO or I suppose you could be "if we can't sell mMIMOs we need to get out of the antennae business altogether."

It's all a bit to hazy for me at the moment, hence I will sit and watch a while. There is still the potential I think for mMIMO to provide massive upside for FTC, but I would want some clearer evidence for optimism.

One thing that was nagging on me and that I should have perhaps taken more notice of was that the "OEM customer" (which in 'analyst speak' I infer to be Nokia) is involved in a number of 5G projects, but as far as I think we have been told thus far the only FTC involvement was with this particular "lead client" (who I infer to be T-Mobile US).

Has every other client of the "OEM Customer" already rejected these frequencies and was this "lead client" just late to the decision?

I don't the first clue at this stage and until I can get a clearer idea I will sit out.

I agree by the way with your comments on "other sectors" and feel that these actually give FTC a higher value than the current market cap; but probably not by too much and given the negative sentiment and both the uncertainty of how big the loss will be this year and whether they will need to raise cash or not; I just think it is prudent to wait and see.

I do though hope you do well out of buying back in, I'll be happy to buy back in at a higher price with a bit more certainty.

[beeks of arabia] 15/12/2018 10:22

It's very annoying that web browser formatting does not Carry over to the app!

[beeks of arabia] 15/12/2018 10:16

Gr3nts

You can find the information out there readily enough to decipher slightly the announcement made by FTC.

From the results:


• The utilisation of 3.4 - 4.2GHz gives a major opportunity for Filtronic and this frequency range is expected
to account for 90% of deployments.
w Due to the relative short range of RF at frequencies of about 3.5GHz, there will be a requirement for many more sites and potentially as many as 1 million antennas in the UK alone.
w Filtronic has developed the core antenna designs for this frequency and has the filtering knowhow.

This band is right in the sweet spot of where 5g is, however this article lists some of the challenges - hxxps://www.cio.com/article/3226451/networking/5g-a-few-frequency-facts.html

My take is that FTC had interest in their technology at the 3.4 - 4.3gh band however the customer has changed their specifications - possibly due to testing and hitting some challenges around capacity/performance. Due to the design of these products, the laws of physics and costs, the Tier one has decided not to utilise as much of FTCs product - it may be that FTCs products are used for a certain purpose - carrier signal, backbone communication etc, however at this stage there is not as much demand for FTCs product.

I say “at this stage” because the technology hasn’t even been delivered in scale yet anywhere in the world! The company are reviewing the plans for the antenna business, in investor speak this often means shutting it down or selling it - however FTC don’t communicate to market well as we have seen - this may mean a fundraiser to get cash to redevelop their mmimo offering or a change of investment from development to sales - I really don’t know. However I do know that FTC are the market leader in this area, the pound is at a low making them competitive and the market or technology haven’t even got off the ground yet. On top of this FTC have a core mature offering in other sectors which they are actively developing. Anyone who does any work around information security will know that demand for data of any kind is only going one way.

I sold on results day, and have bought back and added since. If FTC is boom and bust then we are currently in the “Bust” stage - whilst the last few weeks have been disappointing, I still see huge value here with a company with bags of innovation in an emerging market with no debt.

Best wishes to the floor.

[teddy boy1] 14/12/2018 11:34

Still a lot more buys than sells so it is very possible that there has been an over -reaction to this weeks update and that now this much reduced price is proving attractive to some.

I ,for one, am gradually buying back in at this level after being stop -lossed out the other day.

[owenski] 14/12/2018 09:28

The risk here is a business structure one and not particularly a product oriented one.

They are a one customer one product type business. Simplification I know there are more, but it's always been a high risk business because it doesn't have a diversified customer base.

The share price was effectively chased up on the back of a one customer one product expectation and then ramped to death by some posters talking their own book.

If this was one product but multiple customer buys then the risk would've been reduced.

[chestnuts] 14/12/2018 09:27

Estienne

I sold out around 19p because of the Octo agm statement,

So would you enlighten us why the Antennas were rejected after they were designed and built to the customers spec

[estienne] 14/12/2018 09:22

It has nothing to do with the Chinese. I know its no consolation but when it comes to Tech stocks like this you really should understand something about their products and the market they work in before you invest. put it down to experience. and move on

[chestnuts] 14/12/2018 09:15

Grants

I posted yesterday i think the issue here is that the antennas are made in China

Now if FTC started making the Antennas in UK i think they would be the leader even if they cost more.

They could get all the parts made in China and finish them off in the uk.

[owenski] 14/12/2018 08:44

Lot of mugs trying to catch a falling knife here.

This'll be raising funds new year, I reckon it could go a lot lower in the weeks to come.

[northwards] 14/12/2018 08:39

I repeat a question I posed about a week ago - do ftc manufacture in China?

[gr4nts] 14/12/2018 08:34

Does anyone here think the slowdown of antenna demand was to do with the chinese network security worries - it would explain why it was so sudden and why so dramatic?