Fidelity Japan Share Discussion Threads

[corrientes] 22/3/2006 12:13

FEV not looking strong either. Curency problems ?

[umitw] 16/3/2006 11:51

This has been a rocky ride and downward trend ever since I bought it!
It is down almost 30%!
What is Fidelity doing?

[Abuse team] 15/3/2006 19:31

Post removed by ADVFN

[knowing] 15/3/2006 19:30

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: Exports To Lift Nikkei To 20,000 This Year Nikkei Interactive 17:30

[knowing] 13/3/2006 08:53

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: Nikkei To Top 18,500 By June On Corp Gains Nikkei Interactive 17:28 9-Mar-06

[knowing] 10/3/2006 23:54

LOL muppet !

[clive the cockroach] 10/3/2006 23:53

Head and shoulders on the Nikkei. The 225 should slide back to 10k by the autumn. Good short candiatate imho.

[knowing] 10/3/2006 16:17

Just added a few as imagine we may see a positive day Monday.

[sunburst] 04/3/2006 13:21

Jak 1
Yes, it seems there is an "issue" around the Yen Carry Trade.
There also seems to be another issue around Japanese interest rates.

I find a lot of what has been written about this a bit obscure.
However, it seems to go something like this.

People have done the following:
1. Borrow Yen from Jap banks (little interest to pay out)
2. Buy US bonds in dollars (good interest comes in)
The profit is the difference between the two interest rates (all else being equal).

However, it appears interest rates in Japan may be about to go up.
This may force people to sell their US bonds and pay back the Jap banks.
This is seen as a possible problem for the Jap economy and so Jap shares are going down. I have not yet seen a clear explanation why people think the Jap economy may be hit.

Yes, the Livedoor scandal is also involved in deciding the direction of the Jap market.
But the market has a short memory and this scandal (which was anyway a storm in a teacup) was some while ago.

The other point I have read is that nobody knows how much Yen money has been borrowed and then used to buy US bonds.

Corrections/comments are welcome.

PS. Of course, when interest rates go up, stocks and shares tend to be adversely affected.
But this is seemingly not what people are focussing on when discussing why the Jap market has stalled.

[jak1] 27/2/2006 19:48

The yen carry trade is being talked about more and more just lately by the TV journo's.

[royalt] 27/2/2006 19:43

Strong dow, should provide lift to the japanese markets tonight.

[royalt] 23/2/2006 12:33

Its all looking bullish on the global markets hectorp. Dow above 11000. Oil down. Ftse in a nice steady uptrend. Good overdue corrective sell off in japan.

I think it could head up from here. Not straight back to the old highs. But slowly trending upwards after this initial bounce.

Are you waiting for a small pullback or do you think it will head even lower?

[hectorp] 23/2/2006 11:00

too darn strong for me, RoyalT.
I wont chase them.

[knowing] 23/2/2006 10:27

Everyone pilling back into Japan.

[royalt] 23/2/2006 10:26

Looking strong today chaps.

[hectorp] 22/2/2006 10:04

stuck them on daily watch.
I suspect this weak patch for Japan markets is nearly over.
95p would be at 200day support..
then possible 30p upside by mid summer IMO.

[mark smith] 21/2/2006 10:56

From a chart view it looks a good buy at around the 90 p - £1 level.

[mart] 21/2/2006 10:06

Hhmm...on my watch radar but seems a rather unconvincing bounce. Will continue to watch; but could obviously BE a goody at some point.

[hectorp] 21/2/2006 08:10

FJV on my buy Radar. RSI is down around 20. ONe has to expect Japan to be 10-20% higher by July.
'One to tuck away' as they used to say. Close watch. Lurking.

( do hold a fair amount of ASian Warrants, not exposed to Japan).

[knowing] 21/2/2006 08:08

Just added a few to the long term portfolio.

[bigspuds] 14/2/2006 00:51

"Japan: The time is now" we wrote here in Profit Watch
back in October 2003, when the Nikkei 225 index stood
at 10,531.

"This is not another short-lived rally fuelled by
exporters; this is not a false dawn.

"The signs are encouraging. Domestic spending is
starting to show signs of life and recent falls in the
unemployment rate are further adding to confidence.

"Indeed, Japan's four-year period of deflation could be
coming to an end. The Japanese have been fanatical
savers for years, so prices can only go down if
nobody's buying. However, they now appear to be
following our example and spending like there's no
tomorrow. There is not expected to be inflation for a
year or two, but prices have stopped falling."

Of course, it's been a rocky road ever since then. But
for investors with a long-term view, that would have
been a very good time to buy the Nikkei. Recently the
index has been as high as 16,500 – a rise of 57% in a
little over two years.

But what now? There should still be plenty more upside
left for investors in Japan's long-term recovery – but
expect some weakness in the short term. Profit takers
have knocked the market in recent sessions in the light
of central bank messages that the county's zero
interest rate days are numbered.

Now is probably not the best time to jump in with both
feet if you're looking for some exposure to the Japan –
chances are you'll be able to get in a little lower
down in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, an interesting note on Japan from Tom Tragett:

"As a result of the recent settlement problems on the
Tokyo stock exchange they have decided to stay closed
for an extra half an hour every day after the usual lunchtime
break. Osaka exchange is, however, operating as normal
and therefore is open on its own for half an hour every
day... during which time it seems certain operators are short
selling the indices ahead of the Tokyo re-opening.

"It seems then Tokyo market panic sells every day on their
re-opening to catch up (only in Japan would traders do this -
crazy!) This is in effect forcing the market to gap lower on
the charts... it looks like Tokyo stock exchange has created
an unforeseen problem in an attempt to improve
liquidity/settlement..."

Tom concludes with a quick message on my voicemail this
morning: "Frank, it seems somone finally caught wind of
what was going on in the Nikkei and apparantly left large
buy orders which were triggered over lunchtime. Apparrently
¥80 billion traded over that time, which helped the Nikkei
close up 307 points led by Mazda and banking stocks..."

[bigspuds] 14/2/2006 00:41

offloaded myself on friday , risk is its another false dawn for the Jap economy and when this falls it can fall fast and hard.....watching and waiting for the mo ....nikkei has started of well tonight though

[gotnorolex] 13/2/2006 14:15

Yesterdays NAV I'm afraid!
Hope we are not going south as predicted on Bloomberg lastnight.
The Chartist said its not a matter of how much that brilliant chart(Nikkei)
would rise, but...By how much it would fall!
Will wait-n-hold for now.