Fidelity Japan Share Discussion Threads

[jimcar] 10/3/2002 18:20

It was tipped in one of the magazines this week(I think it was Shares). I have had a few in this IT for ages. In 1999-2000 it took off when sentiment to Japan changed. This could be happening again. Sunday business today says that Americans are withdrawing money from the FTSE and putting it in Japan and Emerging markets. Japan does have a endency to disappoint though.

[mrich] 10/3/2002 18:14

Anyone else noticed the golden cross on this i.t.50 and 20 m.a. But it has had a big rise last few days. Opinions welcome.

[papillon] 22/10/2001 09:21

If you look at previous writings of the GURU (Brian Marber) you will see he went overboard on Japanese funds around 6 months ago (sharecast.com). The NIKKEI was then about 14,000 and had broken out (inverse head and shoulders). He got carried away in his enthusiasm. Within weeks, as the NIKKEI started to collapse he changed his tune!!. Who knows he could be right this time? Then again!

[innovation99] 03/10/2001 11:48

Article on Nothing-Ventured site - interesting reading. The following is the last lines of the article. This guru is putting his money where his mouth is and having read his articles many times this is the first time I have seen him say buy. Although which fund you buy he does not state other than a decent one -meaning that a upside to Japan funds is on the way.

Calling Japan

By Brian Marber
Tue 2 Oct 2001

"You don't often see Buy Signals from old Guru, at least when markets are falling apart. This one looks as though it is getting it together.

Buy yourself a decent Japanese fund."

Editor's note: Due to unavoidable difficulties this report, written earlier, was delayed until today. In the interim - 1. the Nikkei has broken out on the upside. 2. Brian Marber has put his money where his mouth is, buying Japanese funds this morning.

Apart from small sells, there was two 50,000 share tranches brought.

[joe soap] 27/3/2001 13:40

Even today's share price compared to yesterday's NAV, there's a discount of over 25%. I recon short term we will definitely hit the 63p mark again (see my comment on price breakout yesterday). And Hasta la vista, there's money to be made short term as well as long term. Take the period from 1998 to 1999 as proof. Japan's market has NOT been on the rack, as you say, for nearly 10 years. There was at least 50% profit to be made out of Japan's market over that period, and I believe we'll see some more profit potential over the next 18 month period. Do some homework and you may come to agree with me, even in part. All comments welcome.
Joe.

[joe soap] 26/3/2001 17:38

The downtrend has been broken today at 54p. Next resistance stop should be around the 63-64p mark. See you then.
Joe.

[joe soap] 26/3/2001 10:37

The game is on...

[hasta la vista] 22/3/2001 15:37

Japan's markets have been on the rack for nearly 10 years, what makes anyone think it's going to change soon, the trend is your friend and investing in Japanese shares/funds is crazy IMHO

Keep it in the bank or get yourself into a pair of shorts. Most smart Japanese money has been in the US, and they've probably been having a whale of time recently, why should they play at home when away goals count double !!

[joe soap] 22/3/2001 15:33

Here's an interesting article about the future of the Japanese markets, in that the Finance Minister has finally realised that the devaluation of the Yen is for now the only thing that can help, and he's not objecting to the sell off that's been going on for the last few weeks. Looks like thing s may start to steady very soon.
Joe.

WASHINGTON (AFX) - Japanese officials are signalling comfort with further
yen weakness, by their conspicuous absence of cautionary remarks about the yen's
decline, said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Mellon Bank.
Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said earlier today that "without
any policy weapons at present it is no use to discuss the forex matter."
Chandler said "this is a euphemism. When they say they want the market not
to be manipulated, but let market forces prevail, that means it is OK to sell
the yen."
"Official concern about the yen's fall is notable by its absence," he said,
noting that the dollar broke 124 against the yen in trading earlier today.
"There's been a pretty big pace of yen depreciation, but there's been no
word that it would be detrimental to Japanese stock markets in any fashion...
They are not giving any reason for the currency market to stop selling the yen,"
Chandler noted.
"They are signalling that there is no obstacle to where the market is taking
the yen," he added.
There has also been a lack of response from the U.S. side. This may be
influenced by the Bush administration's increasing emphasis on security, rather
than economic, ties with Japan, Chandler said.
The U.S. will likely become concerned with the yen's weakness at the point
it starts weighing on the Asian region, he said.
"We're not there yet... there is no significant concern at this point,"
Chandler said, but this will be a crucial turning point.

[energyi] 21/3/2001 14:08

Joe,
The Nikkei rally may have more to do with the
beginning of the new Fiscal year there.
Personally, I am still waiting for a "shoe to drop"
in the form of a cathartic banking crisis

[alchemy] 21/3/2001 13:13

Well I don't think this should go un-noted tho not much to say.
Dont you just like the gearing of warrants when it's with you?


Barry Riley FT today has a long and as usual thoughtful bit on Japan..
need to re-read it though before I get close to understanding
Yours candidly

I will not press the commit button more than once this time!

[joe soap] 21/3/2001 09:26

Well, like I said on the 12th, "viva a 50 basis point drop." It's worked for FJV and Japan - a 912 point (7.5%) increase in the Nikkei overnight, but the rest of the markets don't like it much. Interesting! It could be a cumulative result of the Bank of Japan effectively reducing the bank rate to 0% in the hope of stopping deflation, along with future potential that the US will start to grow from here on, and orders will start to flow strongly into Japan. Or maybe the Minister of Finance resigned.....? All comments welcome.
And Alchemy, glad to help with this thread. It's been an interesting one indeed.
Joe.

[alchemy] 15/3/2001 14:13

Bluto

Great site

Joe Thnx for the thread - I am in the warranst as
a direct result of you two guys..

rgds

[alchemy] 15/3/2001 14:13

Bluto

Great site

Joe Thnx for the thread - I am in the warranst as
a direct result of you two guys..

rgds

[alchemy] 15/3/2001 13:47

Bluto

Great site

Joe Thnx for the thread - I am in the warranst as
a direct result of you two guys..

rgds

[joe soap] 15/3/2001 08:38

Up on a buy of 772. There are a few things I don't get, but this has got to top the cake for the day so far. Anyone with a good explanation? My best guess is that the discount to NAV is now greater than 24%, which from my research across the board of IT's, usually get's a re-rating of some sort. These type of discounts very seldom last long...
Joe.

[joe soap] 14/3/2001 08:59

spracklin, relax matey. Have you had a look at the Nikkei. The down trend has slowed dramatically over the last 3 months as if it wants bottom, although it may drop a little further yet. The point is to find a stock that could benefit from any rise that the Nikkei may have, not so much the fact that a broker has given it's support for it. I recon FJV is well placed as a stock to benefit - see their latest financial report. That's the point here.

I agree that broker recommendations are more often than not to be taken with a bucket of salt, especially as a contrarian investor, which is precisely why you should look at the potential of Japan as a recovery play over the next 18 months. Get the point?
Joe.

[spracklin] 14/3/2001 07:56

Joe Soap Get Real! Brokers are ALWAYS Bullish on Stocks. I take the Merrill Lynch recommendation as a NEGATIVE indicator. As Buy recs outnumber Sells by 9 to 1 from most brokers, the Sells are far more valuable as a Contrarian Indicator. Another useful tools is the Sunday Papers share tips for the year: BT, C&W, Marconi, Stagecoach to name but a few. What a selection!

Still if you wish to follow Brokerspeak, be my guest.

[joe soap] 14/3/2001 00:09

Looks like there's a strong fight going on here between bulls and bears. Nasdaq futures are up, which brings some hope at least.
Joe.

[energyi] 13/3/2001 16:05

I don't think it is over just yet. Here or Japan.
But soon, very soon.

[joe soap] 12/3/2001 17:52

energyi, picked this one up for you:


Merrill Lynch reiterates it's buy on Fidelity Japanese Values, again I might add.
Joe.

[energyi] 12/3/2001 10:27

Joe,
Here's some evidence for your theory on the Yen:


Apparently, Martin Currie got a rare interview with the Bank of Japan
and then immediately took out yen hedges.

[joe soap] 12/3/2001 10:22

...which limits the upside potential some doesn't it! Nonetheless, the Nikkei may not "bounce" of it's current lows until the effects of the devaulation are felt in the markets, and that could take a few months, especially with the stayed, pig-headed minister of finance that they have. The affect of a drive in the Dow will also help of course, which analysts say could come as early as the end of the 2nd quarter, otherwise 3rd quarter. Viva 50 basis point drop by the Fed on the 20th...
Joe.

[energyi] 12/3/2001 08:41

You may be right. Remember we saw the Yen at Y145 about
1 1/2 years ago. Maybe it will go back towards that level.
It did work last time- for a while.

But if you invest in Japanese stocks you have a currency risk.
The stock must appreciate faster than the currency drops