Fidelity Japan Share Discussion Threads

[gotnorolex] 13/2/2007 17:42

BANK OF JAPAN MONETARY POLICY
-Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said the central bank will have a
serious discussion about the possibility of raising interest rates at its next
monetary policy meeting on Feb 21.
-At its last meeting on Jan 18, the Bank of Japan policy board left its main
interest rate unchanged at 0.25 pct, a decision which contributed to the recent
bout of yen weakness.
-"While we had serious discussions at our last meeting, we will have a more
serious debate this time (on Feb 21)," he said, according to Kyodo news agency.



Excellent post knowing, I think they feel compelled to raise int. rates to reverse /slowdown the Yen carry trade. Don't blame those who made a meal of the opportunity to borrow almost interest free and earn 4.5% plus risk free. The spread was and is still too enticing. I'd be doing it if were a major Nippon Bank!

[knowing] 12/2/2007 12:18

G7 MEETING At-a-glance guide to the main points


ESSEN, Germany (AFX) - Following is an at-a-glance guide to the weekend
meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors

YEN, JAPANESE ECONOMY
-G7 finance ministers and central bank governors made no reference to the
weakness of the yen in the communique issued at the end of their meeting here.
-Some euro zone ministers had expressed concern about the yen in the run-up
to the meeting, but ministers agreed that it was inappropriate to single out any
particular member currency for criticism in the communique.
-The G7 said the Japanese economic recovery is "on track and is expected to
continue" and urged financial markets to incorporate this in their assessments
of risks.
-And Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi and Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko
Fukui both told the meeting that the recovery should be reflected in the yen's
exchange rate.
-"Exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and the Japanese
economy is recovering at a steady pace," said Omi.
-"They told us...that the Japanese economy is on a good path and that
fundamental data are improving and that, from this point of view, they agree to
our view that this should be reflected in exchange rates," German Finance
Minister Peer Steinbrueck said.
-"Today our Japanese colleagues were telling us that the economic recovery
is on a good path and they did express the feeling that the exchange rate should
reflect this improvement," euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker said.
-US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also said that Omi provided the G7 with
a "favourable" report on the Japanese economy, saying that Japan is "on the path
to sustainable growth".
-European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet warned markets about
the risks of one-way bets in currency markets, particularly in carry trades
which have been one of the main factors depressing the yen in recent weeks.
-"We want the markets to be aware of the risks in one-way bets, particularly
on the foreign exchange markets," he said. He said his comments related
particularly to carry trades, in which investors borrow in low-yielding
currencies like the yen to buy higher-yielding assets.
-Omi echoed Trichet's comments.
-"I think that the markets, including currency markets, it's not desirable
for it to move in one direction," said Omi.
-IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato also warned of potential financial
instabilities from the extreme positions taken out by certain investors in the
currency markets.
-Otherwise, the G7 stuck to its standard language on currencies.
-"We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.
Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for
economic growth," it said in the communique. "We continue to monitor exchange
markets closely and cooperate as appropriate."

BANK OF JAPAN MONETARY POLICY
-Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said the central bank will have a
serious discussion about the possibility of raising interest rates at its next
monetary policy meeting on Feb 21.
-At its last meeting on Jan 18, the Bank of Japan policy board left its main
interest rate unchanged at 0.25 pct, a decision which contributed to the recent
bout of yen weakness.
-"While we had serious discussions at our last meeting, we will have a more
serious debate this time (on Feb 21)," he said, according to Kyodo news agency.

CHINESE YUAN
-G7 finance ministers and central bankers reiterated their call for more
flexibility in the exchange rate regime of the Chinese yuan.
-"In emerging economies with large and growing current account surpluses,
especially China, it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so
that necessary adjustments will occur," they said.
-The wording of the statement shifted slightly from that used in the
previous G7 communique in September. It previously referred to "large current
account surpluses" rather than "large and growing" surpluses. And it previously
called for "greater exchange rate flexibility" rather than a move in effective
exchange rates.
-But Trichet said there was no major significance in the change of wording.
-People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan reiterated that he is in
favour of making the yuan's exchange rate regime more flexible.
-But Paulson said the world would not wait forever for China to make the
yuan more flexible although the country has "come a long way".
-He said one of the biggest priorities of his remaining two years is to get
China to revalue its currency much faster.
-Paulson laid out a list of financial measures China should introduce,
including the removal of equity caps on foreign financial institutions. China,
he said, cannot get where it needs to without lifting the cap.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
-The G7 said global growth is now more balanced and risks to the growth
outlook have declined.
-"Global growth is more balanced. In our economies, performance remains
favourable," it said.
-"Amid lower energy prices and moderating inflationary pressures, risks have
abated, but we will remain vigilant," it said.
-And it expressed confidence that markets would take account of the more
balanced growth situation.
-"We are confident that the implications of these developments will be
recognised by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments
of risks," they said.

CHINA ECONOMY
-PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the central bank is watching inflation
data very closely to see if the recent acceleration in inflation is due to
seasonal factors or real inflationary pressures.
-Chinese CPI inflation accelerated to 2.8 pct in December from 1.9 pct in
November.
-Asked whether the central bank might raise interest rates in response to
the acceleration in inflation, Zhou said: "We see that CPI is going up a little
bit, but it's still not very significant. There might be some seasonal reasons."
-"We are going to follow the specific data development very closely and to
see whether inflation is really going up or only a seasonal fluctuation," he
told journalists on the sidelines of the G7 meeting.
-He also said that China's GDP growth is unlikely to be more than 8.0 pct
this year. The Chinese economy grew 10.7 pct in 2006.
-The G7 said it welcomed China's commitment to rebalance growth.

US ECONOMY
-The G7 said the US economy is experiencing solid activity while adjusting
to a more sustainable growth path.
-Paulson said he is more confident that the economy is moving towards
sustainable growth.
-Bundesbank president Axel Weber said discussions with US delegates showed
that the soft landing scenario for the US economy has so far been confirmed by
economic data, adding there are indications of a "bottoming out" in the US
housing market.

EURO ZONE GROWTH
-The G7 said the euro zone is experiencing an increasingly broad-based
upswing.
-Weber said the underlying growth trend in Germany remains intact and that
the outlook for euro zone growth is still positive.
-"The cyclical dynamism in the fourth quarter in both Germany and the euro
zone should not have decelerated," he added.

TRADE
-The G7 said it fully supports the relaunch of the Doha round of world trade
talks.
-"We remain committed to resisting protectionist sentiment and fully support
the relaunch of the Doha trade negotiations," ministers and central bankers
said.
-They said that all participants "have the responsibility" to ensure a
successful outcome of the Doha round as it will enhance global growth and
contribute to poverty reduction.
-The WTO talks were suspended last July, but trade ministers at the recent
World Economic Forum in Davos agreed that negotiations should resume.
-Steinbrueck said he is optimistic that the trade talks can resume in late
February or early March.

HEDGE FUNDS
-Finance ministers and central bank governors said they need to be
"vigilant" over hedge funds.
-"Given the strong growth of the hedge fund industry and the instruments
they trade, we need to be vigilant," they said.
-They said hedge funds have contributed significantly to the efficiency of
the financial system.
-But they added: "The assessment of potential systemic and operational risks
associated with these activities has become more complex and challenging."
-They said they will exchange views with the private sector and ask the
Financial Stability Forum to update its 2000 Report on Highly Leveraged
Institutions in time for the May meeting of G8 finance ministers.
-Steinbrueck said G7 deputy finance ministers will hold talks with the
management of some hedge funds, which will be encouraged to develop and
implement "best practices".
-Trichet said he would like to see the hedge fund industry adopt a code of
conduct to ensure that risks to financial stability from its rapid growth are
minimised.
-This would involve "self assessment by the industry in a number of domains
including risk control, information given to investors, information given to the
prime brokers", he said.
"There is no element of a warning to the industry. It is much more a
reflection of what would be the best way to proceed, taking into account past
experience -- the lessons we have learned from the Asian crisis," he added.

EMERGING ECONOMIES' BOND MARKETS
-Ministers said that emerging economies' bond markets should be developed to
reduce their vulnerability to external shocks and financial crises and promote
growth.
-The Bundesbank is holding a conference in Frankfurt on May 9-10 on market
experience of emerging economies' bond markets. The G7 said this will help to
identify concrete recommendations and sustain the momentum of reform.

G7 ENLARGEMENT
-Steinbrueck said he is in favour of enlarging the G7 bloc to include
emerging market countries such as Russia.
-"It makes no sense for Russia not to be a full member," Steinbrueck said.
-"We're in a process of expansion of the G7, which the way I see it will
eventually result in the full membership" of Russia, he added.
-He said China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Australia are among
countries that should also be able to join the bloc.
-Steinbrueck said there is no "formalised process" yet to admit any new
countries to the G7 group, but added he believes that "in two, three, four
years, we'll no longer have the G7-G8, but a G10 or a G14."

IMF REFORM
-Steinbrueck said there is some hope for reaching agreement on the reform of
the International Monetary Fund following new proposals from Canadian delegates
at the G7 meeting of finance minister and central bank chiefs.
-There are still widely diverging views among the G7 nations about how to
tackle IMF reform, Steinbrueck said.
-But he said Canadian officials had brought "some glimpse of hope" to the
debate when they proposed to discuss a "package" of reforms.
-Under the proposal, the IMF countries would agree to a bundle of reforms
that would address not only the fiercely debated quotas but also other issues,
Steinbrueck said.
-In its communique, the G7 reaffirmed the "strong belief" that fundamental
reform is necessary for the IMF to maintain its credibility and effectiveness in
the changing global economy.
-"We remain committed to making IMF quota shares more aligned with members'
relative weight and role in the world economy, and to enhance the participation
and voice of low-income countries," it said.

ENERGY/CLIMATE CHANGE
-Steinbrueck said the G7 was not able to agree a common stance on climate
change and energy issues at their weekend meeting.
-"We did not reach a clear conclusion," Steinbrueck said.
-He said more preparatory work needs to be done on this subject before it
will be addressed again by the G8 summit in June.
-In their communique, the G7 said it considers energy efficiency and the
promotion of energy diversification -- notably through renewable energies -- to
become an "increasingly important issue for our economies as well as emerging
market economies".

COUNTERFEITING
-G7 ministers also said they will support enhanced cooperation to enforce
intellectual property rights and combat counterfeiting.
-French Finance Minister Thierry Breton had proposed that the G7 should set
up an international organisation to battle against counterfeiting, along similar
lines to the Financial Action Task Force on moneylaundering.
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[skyship] 10/2/2007 17:41

It looks to me as though it's time to be back into these. On economic fundamentals having a %age of one's portfolio in Japan has to be sensible; but doing so when the unravelling of the "Yen Carry Trade" could replicate the Yen gains of 1998, provides the possibility of the level of returns achieved in 2005:

[knowing] 01/2/2007 11:45

Nice move higher today for a change.Sentiment in the USA now hopefully being reflected in Japan.

[gotnorolex] 27/1/2007 15:38

Yen carry trade has not diminished despite rate increase in Japan, so said a Bloomberg guest the other day! Now hope this is slowing and we don't have another years delay in the very much expected and overdue ascendance of the NIKKEI DOW. We@ FJV are at the bottom of the chart cycle so have a long way to go!
Seems to me there's not much risk of downside here!

[knowing] 15/1/2007 23:04

Tokyo shares outlook - Firm amid improved sentiment


TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices are expected to open higher as investor
sentiment continues to improve, with a weak yen and receding concerns over the
strength of the US economy reviving expectations for a better-than-expected
profit performance by Japanese exporters, dealers said.
Worries are also receding over the health of the corporate sector in Japan
in the wake of the release yesterday of a slightly stronger-than-expected
machinery orders, they said.
But activity here may be slow due to the absence of US players, with US
markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, dealers said.
In addition, the top side may be capped on caution ahead of the start
tomorrow of a two-day policy board meeting, where the nine policy board members
of the Bank of Japan are widely expected to vote to raise overnight call rate
for the first time since July last year.
On the Tokyo bourse yesterday, the blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed
up 152.91 points or 0.9 pct at 17,209.92, while the broader TOPIX index of all
first-section issues was 19.31 points or 1.15 pct higher at 1,704.58.
Ahead in Japan, the Bank of Japan will release 10 minutes before the opening
bell corporate goods prices for December, while the Ministry of Economy, Trade
and Industry will announce in the afternoon revised industrial production data
for November.
Shin-Etsu Chemical announces earnings for April-December.
Stocks to watch include Sanyo Electric after the struggling consumer
electronics maker announced it and Haier Group of China signed today a formal
agreement to establish a joint venture and start collaboration in the
refrigerator business, in line with a tentative agreement on Oct 27.
Credit Saison Co Ltd may draw attention on a report that the credit card
firm will begin selling no-load investment trusts to its 24 mln cardholders in
March through a tie-up with US mutual fund firm Vanguard Group Inc, targetting a
net asset balance of 200 bln yen by 2010.
Marubeni Corp may advance on a report that the trading house has bought 100
pct of Integrated Resources Holdings Inc of the US for some 8 bln yen.
Integrated Resources Holdings Inc owns AT Clayton & Co, a distributor of
lightweight coated paper used in magazines and other printed materials.
Komatsu Ltd may be active on a report that it has won mining equipment
orders totaling some 32 bln yen from a Mexican gold miner and a Chinese coal
producer.

[hosede] 15/1/2007 09:53

Japan seems to be doing OK but FJV going nowhere - are they the "wrong sort" of gains or is it just the fall of the Yen v Sterling? Whatever, it's very frustrating!

[gotnorolex] 10/1/2007 12:48

8th January 20007
WASHINGTON: Japan's finance minister linked his country's economic recovery to strong investment and exports, and said his government will continue to promote economic changes meant to tackle the problems of non-performing loans and excess corporate debt.

"A policy of structural reforms, not public expenditures, continues to be rigorously pursued to make the economy even stronger," Koji Omi said Monday during a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

The last five years have seen a Japanese economic comeback after more than a decade of stagnation. Under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's direction, unemployment dropped, the stock market rocketed, the government was streamlined and bad debt was mopped up at the nation's banks.

Omi said new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ministers will continue Koizumi's policy of letting the private sector do "what it can do best, and to delegate administrative operations as much as possible to local governments."

The government is working to "make Japan an attractive place for business," Omi said, and hopes to double the level of overseas investment into Japan to 5 percent of the gross domestic product by 2010.

[gotnorolex] 04/1/2007 22:27

The outlook for Japan's economic growth, and its impact on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, has far-reaching implications for global capital markets. This was evidenced last May, when global markets plunged amid concerns over growth prospects and the possibility of tighter policy from Japan's central bank. Markets have since recovered - but the concerns remain.

Japanese interest rates are headed significantly higher, according to the naysayers. In this scenario, the wide rate spreads that have fueled the carry trade in recent years would shrink. In addition, more competitive rates would allow the yen to appreciate sharply, thereby undermining the rationale for shorting the Japanese currency.

The bears believe the potential removal of the liquidity derived from the carry trade could result in a sharp rise in volatility, as investors shun stocks in favor of lower-risk asset classes like cash.

While S&P Equity Strategy believes the yen carry trade's popularity has probably peaked, we expect it to be unwound gradually, with limited negative repercussions for global capital markets. The reason for this is twofold. First, we are skeptical that the Bank of Japan will tighten aggressively. After a decade of falling prices, we believe Japanese interest rates will rise only gradually, as the central bank awaits further evidence of an end to deflation. In addition, we believe Japanese economic momentum is faltering somewhat, precluding a more hawkish monetary policy stance.

Second, we think the expected anemic pace of rate hikes will keep the yen from appreciating too sharply or too quickly, especially given the faster pace of tightening we expect from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

S&P believes this is good news for global equity investors. Our global asset allocation remains unchanged with a healthy 60% equity weighting, of which 40% is domestic and 20% international. Our recommended international weighting includes 15% in developed-country stocks and 5% in emerging market equities.

[knowing] 02/1/2007 12:46

Looking a bit better today.Japan has some catching up to do.

[gotnorolex] 17/12/2006 13:26

We are in the early throes of an upward trend!
Where better to fill up for new long haul of the Nikkei!
Good Luck all!

[gotnorolex] 14/12/2006 16:14

This week marks an anniversary and one that I think few in Japan will ever forget. Exactly 16 years ago, on 31 December 1989, the Japanese stock market hit an all-time high.

[yanytoe] 12/12/2006 16:07

nikkei is breaking a reverse head and shoulders,right hand one early this year.What is the volume though?

[knowing] 12/12/2006 06:08

It will be interesting to see if the Nikkei breaks from it's recent trading range as that may indicate 20K on the cards.

[knowing] 06/12/2006 04:18

Well keeping the uptrend with a little pull back now and then will do fine. Looks oversold and due a bounce from here.

[knowing] 04/12/2006 13:46

Is this one starting to recover now ? Drop seems pretty well overdone considering the general market is still above the 16K level.

[jhan66] 17/11/2006 12:54

thks for link, I hold some IIM.
comment says it's dependent on the health of the US economy, if I read correctly. So I guess it's down to how optimistic you feel about the US.

[isa23] 17/11/2006 12:29

For every Gartmore, there are ten's of Bulls out there in the city. British Empire investment trust has 15% in Japan, Jupiter Merlin Worldwide fund has 30%, and Nick Greenwood who manages the successful iimia accelerated fund has about 15% of assets in this sector. He's just been back from Japan to make sure he is not wasting his money on this country. His findings make a compelling case for investing in the smaller companies like fjv & ijd etc:

[jhan66] 17/11/2006 12:16

published yesterday:
Gartmore has reduced its exposure to Japanese equities across its multi-manager funds, citing increasing concern over the country's stalling economic recovery.

Don't know what to make of it at FJV. Doubled my investment, top-sliced then total retrace since then. Ready to buy if I could have some confidence in future direction.

[powerdrill] 17/11/2006 09:58

WELL DONE COINCALL

THINK THIS BEAR IS COMMING TO AN END. NOW ENTER THE DRAGON.

I HAVE A LARGE PART OF MY INVESTMENT IN JAPAN.

ALL THE BEST TO YOU

[coincall] 16/11/2006 16:56

powerdrill,

Yes I bought some at 74p, looking to buy more if the share price slips a little more.

[powerdrill] 16/11/2006 16:44

COME ON . IS THERE ANYBODY GOING TO JOIN ME AND CHASE THE DRAGON??

[knowing] 06/11/2006 23:41

TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices are expected to open higher as investors
take their cue from a solid rebound on Wall Street overnight which was spurred
by private-equity buyout deals, dealers said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.51 points, or 1.00 pct, to
12,105.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 15.48 points, or 1.13 pct, at
1,379.78, and the Nasdaq composite index advanced 35.16 points, or 1.51 pct, to
2,365.95.
Chicago-traded Nikkei futures contracts settled at 16,555 points, up from
yesterday's closing level of
16,380 the Osaka Securities Exchange, suggesting a firm start for the market.
On the Tokyo bourse, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed up 14.74 points or
0.09 pct at 16,364.76,
while the broader TOPIX index of all first-section issues dropped 2.31 points or
0.14 pct to 1,601.43.
Companies due to release results today for the first half ended September
include Toyota, Kubota, Olympus, Aiful, Konami, Astellas Pharma, CSK Holdings,
Cosmo Oil among others.
Showa Denko will report results for the nine months to September.
Stocks to watch included Takeda Pharmaceutical after Japan's largest
drugmaker said its operating profit rose to a record high in the fiscal first
half, led by brisk sales of its flagship drugs and boosted further by a weak
yen, allowing it to hike its full-year forecasts.
Japan Airlines Corp may fall on a report that the carrier is likely to
reduce its operating profit projection from the initial forecast of 17 bln yen
due to higher fuel cost.