Yes sentiment can fight the SP, but you can't fight the NAV @ 131p
Excellent progress here, well done Nicholls. |
Straight from the horses mouth...... |
NAV 128p
SP 115p
Bargain. |
China extra stimulus imminent : Bloomberg TV. |
Another great day making lots of money with FCSS up 2.6% in one day! that hasn't happened for years! I'd love to see it catch the NAV. |
NAV at 123.5 - excellent, not seen the likes of this for over 3 years.
Suits me, quietly making money on my own again, it reminds me of KENTZ. |
Hi JW,
Yes back in, I'm hoping lessons have been learnt over the past 4 years, I feel like this is a new start now AB has retired, it is looking pretty strong tbh, I'm going for long slow growth now after making tons of cash on the more volatile stuff. I don't want to push my luck, but I firmly believe that China is about to kick ass, better 'very' late than never. |
are you back in whizzy?
i'm in from the start.... sigh.... wondering whether it's now time to sell. |
Just a 1p pullback, seems very strong this. |
Looking a bit toppy at the moment, I think maybe a 2-3p pullback is on the cards in the next few days. |
Nice 'boring' stock going up daily, quietly making lots of money on my own in the corner, great stuff. |
I think there's a definite change on the way, lots of good news outweighing the bad in China, new CEO is out of banks, seems to be steering this fund in the right direction at long (4 years) last.
Time to invest.
Edit:
In heavily @104p |
Patients required, slowly & surely.
Still waiting in the sidelines here. |
Not in either stock myself, but first time FCSS is trading at a higher discount than JP Morgan Chinese IT. |
Had enough of Fidelity trying to prop up the share price with the massive buy back.
Something has got to give.
I'm fully out as of 10 mins ago, will only return on strengthening good news. |
 The Shanghai Market has dropped by circa 67% from its high of around 6000 in November 2007 to around 2000 some 18 months later. It had rallied back up to 3000 by the time this fund was launched in mid 2010 and then it fell back to 2000 over the following 2 years where it has largely remained.
However following the economic and social reforms announced last week it has jumped by 10% in a matter of days as a result of a number of strict controls being relaxed with the objective of enhancing consumer demand and domestic consumption. A Credit Suisse analyst went as far as describing these changes as being the "most comprehensive and ambitious reform plan in the history of the People's Republic"
The FCSS shareprice has been one step ahead of this development having risen by 30% over the past 5 months, from the year low 80p on June 24th to the current 115p this morning. This has also exceeeded the 23% increase in NAV during the same period.
Anthony Bolton was also quite bullish in his interim statement last week: "I believe there are two common mistakes investment commentators make when they consider the outlook for China: firstly, many paint an overly black or white picture about its future and, secondly, they make predictions for China based solely on their Western experience. China is a diverse, large and complex country and the likelihood that the economy will collapse in a Western style banking crisis any time soon, something that several international commentators predict, is extremely remote in my view.
A particular worry focused on this year by the China `bears' is the rising level of debt in China relative to GDP. There are various definitions of total debt but this is generally thought to represent over 200% of GDP and the figure has risen significantly in the last five years. We need to watch closely how this progresses from here, but in a system where debt is financed internally not from overseas borrowings, it is very difficult to estimate at what level debt could become a problem. This could be at much higher levels than we see today.
Regarding the stock market outlook, valuations have risen a little above their ten-year lows but they are still well below their long-term average. Although sentiment has recovered somewhat, investors, particularly on the mainland, remain cautious. Internationally, emerging markets and China in particular remain out of favour. Indeed the Chinese market has been one of the worst performing world markets over the last three years or so.
I remain optimistic. I am still finding many attractive investment opportunities in Chinese shares and continue to think there is still good upside ahead. I am delighted that investors' patience has now started to be rewarded and I hope that this trend will continue during the last five months before I hand over the portfolio to Dale Nicholls and beyond." Anthony Bolton - 11 November 2013
I think there are a number of coalescing fundamental and technical factors to support the return of some strong growth in China next year and I believe that we could see the resumption of a bull market with an increase of up to 40% to take the market index back above 3000 by the end of next year. Consequently, having sold out in two traNches during September 2010 and January 2011, I have NOW bought back into FCSS @105p this morning. |
I just tried for 3k of RMG - anticipating that anything larger would be pared down - didn't reckon on them being quite so mean and they haven't put my "change" back into the bank as quickly as they took it out! Enjoying the rise with China....... looking forward to £2 and beyond!!! |
So glad I wasn't greedy enough to top slice some of my FCSS & spend 25k on The R.Mail IPO. Ring fenced? They got sweet F.A! |
Hooray! Above its issue price - now keep on going UP! |
Hoping this will hit £1.00 later today! Back to its launch price - have topped up on these when they were down in the 70s and 80s using my isa allowance - would love them to move up some more |
Excellent post by Roman! |
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