Fiberweb Share Discussion Threads

[lionelw] 08/11/2012 07:56

"... we would expect to maintain the current net cash position of GBP25 million at the year-end" - since they had this already once the USD26M was paid on top of the GBP9M already in the bank, what happened to the profits in H2? Where there none?

IT projects notoriously come with the risk of running well over budget and causing distraction and disruption to business.

The Old Hickory project, like the IT project sounds like more cost-cutting/no-recurring/one-off costs they said were now a thing of the past. And they are costing even more than some of the previous cost-cutting exercises which still didn't prevent margins sinking like a stone.

Peel Hunt's 30p/share prediction for any capital returned o investors sounds like fantasy now given that most of the current cash will go into the pension scheme and for the IT and Old Hickory logistics adventures. 10p is probably the best they can do now, if they do it at all.

Overall, maybe not bad for the future of the business, but they never seem to get to the future of the business where any benefits are reaped for shareholders. All this probably adds another 2-3 years to the wait for shareholders holding on for a recovery to a 200p share price.

Overall, boring and pretty neutral in my opinion, and demonstrates yet again that these guys enjoy spending money more than making at.

[18bt] 08/11/2012 07:32

Well no surprises on trading in the IMS. We're not getting any cash back yet, but the use of the surplus seems sensible;

- £15m before (presumably 35%) tax generating annual savings of £4m for several years

-£10m additional capex

- some add-on acquisitions

Will look at return of capital again in 2013.

Overall, I welcome a period of calm - some signs that US housing recovery could be good in 2013.

[hvs] 07/11/2012 12:49

No problems here.

Seen it and done it again and again.

[lionelw] 06/11/2012 09:12

maybe it's part of some complex hedging strategy in case FWEB management still say they can't make any profit from 320m sales (even with zero debt costs and no more huge restructuring expenses).
Still ... seems strange if they have long and short positions in stock (whereas a straddle using traded-options does make sense to me as I too expect a big move in one direction or the other)

[v11slr] 06/11/2012 09:07

I don't know if the FSA numbers are an aggregate position, they may have both long and short positions.

[lionelw] 06/11/2012 09:03

thanks V11SLR, that makes sense, but I didn't know it before you mentioned it.
So, do you think they have sold over 9m shares to get to this 2.8m short position from being 6.4m long? Or could that be misleading?

[v11slr] 06/11/2012 08:51

I believe shorters have to pay any dividends that become due, so no it wouldn't profit them.

[lionelw] 06/11/2012 07:31

V11SLR - thank you!
I guess that means, to be in a position of 2.8m shares short in FWEB, starting from a potion of 6.41m shares long in Feb they must have recently sold over 9m shares. Maybe that explains the inability to get above the 68-72p range and the subsequent renewed weakness back to the mid 60s.
Looks like more pain for FWEB holders!

[v11slr] 06/11/2012 06:52

lionel - There are new rules for the disclosure of short positions, the result is you can now get a daily list from the stock exchange of all short positions over 0.5%. Here is the first one:-

[lionelw] 06/11/2012 06:02

insipiens - I read your screenplay twice but still have no idea what you are on about. It looks like there is a point to it, but I don't get it. And it seems to have some humour in it too, but that went over my head too. Did you not say you have closed your interest in FWEB? Are you here just to make friends? Do you have any opinion on where the FWEB shares go from here and your reasons for that?

V11SLR - is there any way to confirm the Henderson Global Investors short position in FWEB and to understand what their reasons are for expecting yet further weakness? (according to the FT, they held 6.41m or 3.02% in FWEB as of 29 February 2012) Would they not have issued something publicly to stir up fear and uncertainty to improbe their chances of the share price moving down further still in their favour? At what price do you think will they have to buy (2.8m shares) to close their short?

Obviously things are getting interesting again and I am convinced there will be a big move - if they are getting close to the promised margins then it will shoot up fast, if they are still not able to make any money from 320m sales even when free of the huge debt interest and the massive restructuring costs then it will drop even faster. We'll see who has got it right, HGI or HVS. Then there is the huge anticipation for the special divi and its potential game-changing impact on the share price just to make things more complicated for investors.

hvs - don't listen to anybody here (especially me - I just think I know it will move sharply, but who knows which way!) just do what you think is right for your money ... and keep buying, LOL

[v11slr] 05/11/2012 21:26

Henderson Global Investors have a 1.65% short position here.

[insipiens] 05/11/2012 21:24

In a parallel universe to this one and to maintain the bounce off the 200ma...

lionelw: "I want you to buy some more FWEB, hvs."
hvs: "Right sir!"
lionelw: "We need a futile gesture at this stage as volume is weak. It will raise the whole tone of the share price."
hvs: "Yes sir!"
lionelw: "Call up your broker. hvs."
hvs: "Sah!"
lionelw: "Pop over 1 mill."
hvs: "Yessir!"
lionelw: "And don't come back."
hvs: "Yessir"
lionelw: "Goodbye, hvs. God, I wish I was buying too."
hvs: "Goodbye Sah! – Or is it au revoir?"
lionelw: "No, hvs."


only kidding ;)

[hvs] 03/11/2012 19:01

Bollinger and bailinger CHARTS are rubbish.

I is still buying more and more.

[insipiens] 02/11/2012 13:16

sounds like only a correction. depends on vol of course....could just be the IDIOTS getting out....

[lionelw] 02/11/2012 09:55

... seems to be trying hard to bounce straight back up off the 200 moving average (~63.5p) but not with much conviction yet. In the absence of any publicly available business reason for the 10& collapse this last week any thoughts on what the charts are saying (broke down through the 30 day ma but trying to stay above the 200 day ma, and breaking out of Bolinger bands)?

[hvs] 01/11/2012 13:20

No worries.

I is BUYING BIG TIME. Its a no brainer.

[lionelw] 01/11/2012 12:17

hvs - have you started shorting this again? ;-)
64.5p to sell and apparently dropping like a stone again, already 10% down in 2 weeks. Maybe it really could be 56p again by the end of the month.

[lionelw] 31/10/2012 17:07

insipiens - fweb can move 10% a day, several times in a single week or month. Trouble is, it's hard to know which way or even to understand why after the event!! Why did it go up to 107p last year just before the 60p rights issue destroyed any hope of getting back to the all time highs (over 220p).
The question is, I suppose - can you imagine a company with some 30m in the bank and probably 200m in pretty tangible assets across the globe, 320m in sales and predicted 8% margins in the medium-term being valued by the market at any less than today's 117m?
If you want 10% dividend yield with a safe and steady shareprice for your capital, this is the wrong horse.
If you believe the most difficult times are firmly in the past now for a debt free and more focused (on higher margin buisness) Fiberweb, and that the stage is set for the long awaited recovery as I was sensing from the interims presentation (still available on their website) then 10% is chicken feed.
There is no doubt in my mind this will move 50% by the anual results - but I can't tell you which way ;-)

[hvs] 31/10/2012 16:17

lol !!!!

Better off somwher else , then why bothre here ?

[insipiens] 31/10/2012 15:39

That's ok hvs, this idiot is getting 10% somewhere else....maybe I'll move back in when fweb is offering 10% pa :P

[hvs] 31/10/2012 13:56

lol !!!!

Never felt "nasty" in fact been pilling in.

far too many IDIOTS around.

Must all be NO LABOUR "GRADUATES"

[lionelw] 31/10/2012 13:45

insipiens - I agree the special divi is no done deal but FT and IC made a point of quoting the corporate brokers' prediction that it could be up to 30p/share. That sounds reasonable to me too given the story of the right's issue and the backing these guys have enjoyed from several long suffering significantly big investors. Remember this thing has gone from 227p to 25p and back to 107p and now under 70p again. And there have been many ooops moments on the way; 5m written off on a fallen-through deal with Japaneasy company for China investments, Avgol 100p bid failure, inventory problems that cost millions, as the reorgs did for several years, directors selling millions of shares while they promised things were going OK, always recurring (until now) non-recurring costs that dwarfed the profits and etc etc etc ... So yes, you are right, but I think it could happen.

boonboon - sad but true (if the management are as sharp as you are)

hvs - welcome back - is yous still feelin' nasty 'bout dis one?

[hvs] 31/10/2012 12:46

lol !!!!!!

Where do they spring from ????