Fiberweb Share Discussion Threads

[lionelw] 17/7/2012 16:45

does succint mean ramper?

[philjeans] 17/7/2012 15:36

Yes lionel - very observant - shares go up and down.

We know.

Only I'm a little more succinct!

[lionelw] 17/7/2012 12:59

touched 69p earlier, but there is no historical way FWEB can close above 68p at the first time of asking.
And if she fails to beat 68p at close for 3 days in a row, she 'll usually drop back down to 62p for a while from where she may eventually attack 68p or head back to 56p. That seems to be the standard pattern.

[lionelw] 17/7/2012 12:54

right, that proves it then. Better buy all I can afford, even on credit, in time for the amazing post results turnaround!
Thanks for the really useful input hvs and good luck with your 100k shares - you will one day get your money back, I hope. You may even get a 1p dividend too look forward to in a couple of months if you continue to hold.

[hvs] 17/7/2012 12:50

Cause the share price is going in the right direction.

[lionelw] 17/7/2012 12:49

why does it look like "results will be well accepted"?

[hvs] 17/7/2012 12:42

I like the small upticks.

Momentum is building and looks like results will be well accepted.

Cash rich and going places.

[lionelw] 17/7/2012 12:29

This is the level your CEO dumped half his shares at a couple of months ago (he accepted 63p when the share price was around 67.8p for 1m shares - he has 1m more, so watch out ;-).
Also, Standard Life's disposal of FWEB shares seems to be going strong (see the big sells over the last weeks and the RNS for facts rather than unfounded speculation you may read here from the usual suspects) and they have 10m shares still they may want to also dump - who knows?!
So, this latest little spike could be a surprise opportunity today to take a little 10-20% profit if you were smart enough to get back in in the low 60s and 50s your CEO's sell had dragged FWEB shareprice down to.
Still very uncertain short-term (could easily drop 20% in the blink of an eye, bask to mid 50s, or up 20% into late 70s as PJ is predicting) and the H1 results announcement promises the same boring "but tomorrow will be sunny" rhetoric.
Still probably has potential to go back up to the highs of last year (106p) and eventually even the highs of half a decade ago (227p) in the very long term.
Definitely a good, fun little investment for either those in for the very long-term or the very agile, like we imagine our very own PJ to be ;-)

[philjeans] 17/7/2012 08:47

Steady buying over the last few days.

Nice rise today - and more to come.

80p on the horizon................according to the charts.

[lionelw] 06/7/2012 14:59

they've only ever surprised me on the downside PJ

[philjeans] 06/7/2012 14:16

They like to surprise you on the upside lionel; calm down dear.

You don't hold any so why get agitated!

Bargain.

[lionelw] 06/7/2012 11:04

so why is Full Year only in line (and even though raw material prices are dropping steeply)?

[insipiens] 06/7/2012 10:57

Lionel, perhaps this is why H1 will only be inline:

"The needlepunch project, together with a major investment in digital printing for US construction products, scheduled for commissioning this summer, mean that capital expenditure this year is first-half weighted."

[philjeans] 06/7/2012 09:57

Some very positive signs there;



Fiberweb Plc Interim Trading Update




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TIDMFWEB

RNS Number : 0559H

Fiberweb Plc

06 July 2012

6 July 2012

Fiberweb plc

("the Company")

Interim Trading Update

Fiberweb plc, a leading international specialty materials producer, is today publishing a trading update, ahead of interim results for the six-month period ending 30 June 2012, which are expected to be announced on 1 August.

Trading trends reported earlier this year have continued, with first half underlying operating profit expected to be in line with the result for H1 2011 for the continuing business (as published on 13 January 2012 following the hygiene disposal).

In North America, the business has benefited from a strong pick-up in US residential construction and from stable volumes in other industrial markets and in dryer sheets. In Europe, weakness in residential construction markets has reduced volumes, while hygiene has been particularly strong. Raw material costs, which climbed dramatically in the early part of the year, are now falling rapidly, which should benefit the second half.

The new geotextile needlepunch line in Maldon, UK is currently in commissioning and expected to start commercial operation in July as planned, delivering a more cost-competitive and broader product range. This enables the closure of production at the Pontypool, UK site this summer, with the realisation of substantial cost savings, marking the completion of the integration of Terram with Boddingtons and Tubex, both acquired last year. The needlepunch project, together with a major investment in digital printing for US construction products, scheduled for commissioning this summer, mean that capital expenditure this year is first-half weighted.

Actions to reduce central costs by around GBP1.5 million pa on an annualised basis have now been completed. An increased focus on working capital performance is expected to deliver a reduced working capital to sales ratio.

Looking forward, lower raw material costs and the benefits of cost saving actions will have a positive impact, as will an ongoing recovery in US construction, but there is continuing uncertainty surrounding construction-related volumes in Europe. Overall, the current outlook for the full year remains in line with Board expectations.

-Ends-

[philjeans] 06/7/2012 09:37

"in-line" suits me fine.

Excellent prospects. Buy the dips.

[lionelw] 06/7/2012 08:56

"Hopefully" next time - sums it all up really.

[topvest] 06/7/2012 08:43

yes, looks ok for now - good recovery in H2 and next year hopefully.

[lionelw] 06/7/2012 08:37

Pretty sad interim statement.
Just "in line" with last year's H1. So no improvement after such a poor 2011 that saw the share price dive from 107p to current levels.
But much more significantly, despite the sudden steep fall in raw material prices (a massive, and unexpected saving - a real godsend), full year forecast remains ONLY in line "with Board expectations". So something else is wiping out the massive benefit from the raw material savings (remember, raw materials cost around 50% of sales).
Disappointing, nothing new.

[18bt] 06/7/2012 08:36

Reasonable trading update. Sensible management actions which should bring medium term re-rating if continued. Can't see a huge amount more progress until evidence of the cost savings is reflected in published figures.

[18bt] 06/7/2012 08:36

Reasonable trading update. Sensible management actions which should bring medium term relating if continued. Can't see a huge amount more progress until evidence of the cost savings is reflected in published figures.

[insipiens] 05/7/2012 17:58

Can't find the analyst & investor site visit presentation on the wensite - anyone know where it is?

[lionelw] 02/7/2012 14:36

... don;t say nobody warned you re crazy FWEB volatility. Down nearly 4% so far in the last few minutes and probably still falling. Got to laugh, unless you've been talked into holding.

[lionelw] 02/7/2012 12:08

The most recent analyst ratings (Numis, Peel Hunt, Panmure Gordon, Evolution) and Investor's Chronicle-mention I could find are below. In summary: a mixed bag but surprisingly no one is saying "sell".
My personal thoughts: stay well away if you don't like big uncertainty and violent volatility, but if you crave risk, FWEB should go up 100% to 300% if they string together a couple good years trading as forecasted and prove that the constant string of non-recurring costs and fumbles are finally history.
Has anybody seen any other recent articles/ratings?



Numis Hold 66.00 Downgrades
Peel Hunt Buy 80.00 Reiterates
Panmure Gordon Hold 64.00 Reiterates
Evolution Securities Buy 100.00 Retains

note Panmure's target went down from 90p to 64p!

----- Investor's Chronicle - "We also rate Fiberweb as a buy"

[hvs] 29/6/2012 14:29

lionelw,

Thank you very much for your above post. Its illuminating .