Fiberweb Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 02/10/2012 16:41

I noticed this too, Pillion. Looks like a deep recovery in the share price Mr. Wong can come up with useful ideas, though equally, because they're purely chart based it can be useful to have some research confidence.. Are there any contrary views here..?

[pillion] 02/10/2012 16:40

L
I'll give it a spin; never too happy holding industrial stocks but we'll see what unfolds

[lionelw] 02/10/2012 16:18

Pillion. If you are not easily spooked, can stomach an often totally irrational ride and can afford to hold for 12-18 months I am convinced (DYOR!) there's at least a double-your-money play here. Good luck!

[pillion] 02/10/2012 15:48

lionelw
Not researched this Co but bought a few this am; they go ex divi tomorrow to pay on GF day

[lionelw] 02/10/2012 14:16

Thanks Pillion. He seems to agree that 72p is the critical level to cross. "the stock is about to break the 72p resistance", but he strangely gives no justification - maybe he too has developed a strong gut-feel for this too after following it for years. I think he also just needs to be a bit careful ... if it fails again this week to cross 72p, the next stop could be 56p.
He also claims "the stock has the potential to make new price highs later this year". Presumably he means price highs for this year rather than the 107p last year or the 230p a few years ago ;-)
But let's see, I have to admit this as (apparently) justifiably optimistic as FWEBers have been (strong sales, improving margins, mucho cash in the bank, big special divi, clearer focus and new products, positive analysts etc...) ever since the original collapse soon after the demerger from BBA.
It looks like things may start moving again soon. Just before that though, we need PJ to give the go ahead ;-)

[pillion] 02/10/2012 14:05

Tipped

............... I open a long in Fiberweb as the stock is about to .............

This is a decent chartist who has made me a few ££££ in the past with his tips

[lionelw] 02/10/2012 10:09

When they announce the special dividend ("12-18 months from date of Hygiene disposal"), are they allowed to back-date it to try to combat volatility in the share price and more speculators jumping on-board?
For example, even if the announcement of this ~30p/share special dividend is not until the annual results presentation (say 6th Feb, 2013)- can they say
"we have decided to pay a special dividend to all shareholders as of 5th October, 2012"? It's amazing to think that if Peel Hunt analysts were not on the whacky backy then anyone who buys these now could be gifted almost half their money back and the company would still barely be in debt and still with 320m sales and steadily "improving" margins!
I suppose that back-dating eligibility could be tricky because if there has been some churn, the current shareholders may not vote for giving money to old shareholders ;-)
Anyway, looks like another futile attempt at 72p this week (and then 80p is hard to avoid it seems from the mystical charts) or a drop back to 56p if the 72p assault fails again (I wish the charts would make their minds up or I could read them better!)

[sharw] 28/9/2012 08:00

...."which could effect polymer pricing".

Trading statement today from RPC includes:

"Polymer prices rose to record levels in April before reducing by more than 20% by the end of July. Subsequently they have however increased again to near record levels by the end of September".

[insipiens] 26/9/2012 20:57

lionel, don't tell fweb has out-bored you!

[lionelw] 26/9/2012 08:49

That was a pretty short-lived bout of excitement in what has shockingly become a beacon of stability; predominantly in a narrow 68-70p range for what seems like an eternity by FWEB standards.
A few sells over the last days (going on RNS, looks probably like Standard Life and Legal & General lightening their load) but someone must think they're worth buying in this range as the price has not moved an inch (one sell this week was for a 1m shares in one go - should find out who that was today - hopefully not your PDMRs again ;-).
I wonder what, if any, effect ex-div will have a week today. It's only a penny again this time, so even that may not be the long-awaited catalyst to finally break below 68p again to give people another chance to buy in the mid 50s.
What ever happened to the king of volatility that one could always have a short 2 or 3 day punt on, almost every week!
Yaaaaawn.

[lionelw] 21/9/2012 14:11

that took me by surprise! hawld ... I said haaaawld yer horses boy!

[lionelw] 07/9/2012 12:49

Now then ... that is timely and interesting! An impressive addition to the team. I think you're over the worst now and the sky's the limit if they can double margins.
If Dr Hosty decides to buy a few hundred thousand shares once he gets to know the company a bit better that would indeed be a very strong signal. If you're a holder of FWEB, you'll be hoping he doesn't decide it's wiser to short it instead ;-)
Now I'm off to rest!

[lionelw] 07/9/2012 12:25

Cheers jeffian; that seems to make sense - and I know what you mean about that style of show. It looks so dated as well, after just 3 or 4 year.
If your CEO still believes what he said there, then he will probably push for the special dividend (and shareholders won't object), or go shopping for some good value acquisitions (possibly even bigger than Tubex and Boddingtons, who incidentally, if I interpret the news/data correctly, are both doing even better than expected with even better growth prospects as part of the Fiberweb portfolio and with its global presence and reputation).
I suspect the board will feel obliged to pay something back to shareholders, and maybe they even had to quietly 'promise' as much to some of the bigger contributors to the rights issue to get their support through what were tough, touch and go times until the Hygiene disposal put the balance sheet in the great shape it is in today (albeit in need of much better gearing), but I doubt they will pay out more than 30p/share even though that would not create any significant gearing given that it will be disappointing if there is not at least 30m (8m at June 30 + 16m Petropar final payment + 15m retained profit) in the bank by year end (170m * 30p = 55m so that means 25m max in new debt which they can pay off in a years or 2 max even if margins stay below 10%). I would say the ideal gearing for this sort of company (320m sales, 6-10% margins) means owing over 40m and no more than 75m - so plenty of room to maneuver and still acquire new bargains.
Let's see - you should find out what they plan to do by the 2012 full year results in February, and we can probably expect plenty of frantic trading as we head towards 2013 which will determine what that special divi's yield means and what impact it has on the market cap and balance sheet.
Time for a rest now. Enjoy the ride!

[jeffian] 07/9/2012 10:47

He says "It helps leverage up our equity returns, which is where the name comes from"

Blimey, is Tom W still doing those 60-second pitch things. Reminds me of the bad old days of 'Show Me The Money' on Channel 4!

[lionelw] 07/9/2012 10:43

Can nobody else work out what Dayan is saying there? He does look like he believes in what he is doing.
Anyway, all this sideways movement between 68p and 72p, and the ever tightening Bollinger bands may say this is about to breakout quite violently - but who knows in which direction!
If it goes down any lower it may be worth a punt. And if it resumes its general upward recovery trend over the last year (~40p-70p), it may be worth a look in.
But seriously, having watched the 2012 interim audiocast again and studied teh savings and expectations, they have so many 1m or 2m cost savings and prospective further income and there's the pass-through from H1 on top of some 10m in savings on debt-interest (with even a small credit for the interest on the cash in the bank!) that they could make a 20m profit (~4p dividend at 30% of profit) - and then this is looking a rather good value!
And yes sharw, unless they make some big acquisitions, the feeling does seem to be that there will be a significant special dividend (30p/share makes sense as they raised 60p/share on a 2 for 3 basis in the right's issue) as there needs to be some gearing - by year end they should have at least 20m-30m in the bank - and that is not efficient business!

[lionelw] 04/9/2012 16:17

sharw -
You should be working for Fiberweb PR. This may be the most useful post this board has ever seen ;-)
I can't make out what he is saying at 3 minutes 45 seconds (hover your mouse over the bottom part of the video) "... we think a degree of leverage is a good thing because it helps leverage our XXXXXXXXXX which is where the name comes from ..."
Can anybody please tell me what the XXXXXXXXXX is? And does his argument then make sense to you?

[sharw] 04/9/2012 15:24

lionelw - I take your point, but let's put this in context:

The sales by Abrams and Dayan on 17/11 were to pay the tax on the vesting of nil-cost awards. The remainder of the shares were retained thereby increasing their total holding.

The 5 'Warner' sales were by Mrs Ines Warner, a person who is deemed to be "a person connected with PDMR". I think we all know a couple where one half is able to spend the money as soon as the other half makes it. In any case, as with all sales, we do not know what the money is needed for. It may be that in this case it is needed for whatever development of their farmhouse and paddock is underway:



The only one that you have listed that causes me to raise an eyebrow is that of Dayan on 29/3 this year. Again the problem is that we do not know why he needed the money. Divorce settlement? Big wedding present for daughter? Who knows?

Whatever, you can listen to Dyan telling the world he is a "net buyer" in this clip from 3 years ago:



Some interesting bits in that, including him saying that he favours leverage, which would support the likelihood of the return of capital talked about on this board.

[lionelw] 04/9/2012 12:42

FWEB Director's dealing in the last 9 months by the people running your company (and their spouses) are below.
Why is nobody other than a few dreamers here and, naturally, FWEB's own corporate analysts thinking these are worth holding?
Do you all think that these people that run your company don't know the REAL outlook?
Get real - time to wake up and smell it! ;-)

09-08-2012 Warner SELL 130,000 69.50
29-03-2012 Dayan SELL 1,000,000 62.73
13-03-2012 Warner SELL 200,000 62.00
12-03-2012 Warner SELL 150,000 62.33
09-03-2012 Warner SELL 200,000 62.75
21-12-2011 Warner SELL 115,000 52.15
17-11-2011 Abrams SELL 237,127 52.70
17-11-2011 Dayan SELL 426,829 52.70

[lionelw] 04/9/2012 09:01

At 67.25p she's finally succeeded in breaking-out of the 68-72p rut!
Could get as good as 56p if my reading of the charts is right (not always the case!! ;-) This has got to be a good buy at that point, below 60p, even if the current management amazingly can't seem to make any profit at all (and even lose money) out of your decent USD500m of annual global sales.
Fascinating watch over the next few weeks to see how low it goes before support kicks in.
Could be tempting at the right price ;-)

[lionelw] 03/9/2012 10:14

If as Peel Hunt (who are FWEB's corporate brokers) say there is a 30p special dividend coming back to you within the 9 months (12-18 months from disposal of Hygiene announcement, as your CEO said back then and reiterated at the interims announcement last month (see the 2012 interims audiocast/presentation on their web site), will that mean effectively that you will get you 30p/share cash deposited back into your bank/trading account but that the share-price should immediately drop 30p?
So if the share price is 90-100p by then (assuming margins are up to at least 6% that sounds about right - 320m sales @ 6% margin = 20m EBITDA gives ~EPS 11p = please correct if wrong), and they pay this predicted 30p special dividend, the shareprice will drop back to around 60-70p.
I assume that's why your shareprice is stuck and loads of stock still available even under 70p, as the net effect of the special dividend for shareholders is in fact 0p! I hope that is not too stressful saripoos.
Does that sound right?

[lionelw] 29/8/2012 23:57

I can understand why Petropar bought the Hygiene division - especially after the smart and successful FitessaFibeweb JV (credit to Dayan and Abrams here as well).
But there is no cohesion in the remaining business. That does not make it a bad business (I think it is a good business if the margins can be pushed up to even a modest 10-12%) but it does mean that there is unlikely to be another business that sees enough synergy to swallow the whole lot of Fiberweb's eclectic divisions.
On the other hand, it would probably make quite a lot of sense for some good old fashioned corporate raiders (what happened to those Zuckers, Sterling Stratigic who are investors "proactive in improving their invested businesses" or so they say!!) and the Swede who everyone here was raving about as one to follow when he bought a large tranche a couple of years ago??) to come in for the lot and sell off the bits at probably the same sort of rate as Petropar paid - 225m for only 40% of the company means ~200p/share (225m/40*60/170m).
It may look boring for now, but this is Fiberweb, and I expect another colorful year - not least in light of the 30p Peel Hunt predicts might be paid back to shareholders as a special divi.

[topvest] 29/8/2012 16:55

Yes, but if management don't take it forward well enough then a deal could be on the cards. They are a sitting duck for a bid, for example.

[lionelw] 29/8/2012 16:50

problem is, topvest, the PDMR & their better halves do NOT buy, they sell. And they have never (yet) proved they can get the business running on all cylinders.
So Panmure Gordon's hold @69p is sensible.
If management did finally fix the above, as you say, one day (starting with getting margins to a pretty mediocre 10-12%), yes this could be priced 3 times today's price, but that will take years at this rate.
Or is there another twist in this tale about to inject the much loved and missed volatility back into this boring old fart of a stock??