Ffi Share Discussion Threads

[dave4545] 19/10/2018 14:52

Was 15k earlier but just dropped below 5000

[yasrub] 19/10/2018 14:50

Online buy limit seems to be only 3000 shares, where as you can sell plenty. Looks like it has shut the shop early for Friday !

[ronwilkes123] 19/10/2018 13:34

Interested to see if anymore buying today

[eentweedrie] 19/10/2018 13:21

yes i added at 29.38 but trade is not showing. Was only 10000 so shouldn't be delayed...

[ronwilkes123] 19/10/2018 13:13

Picked more today round 30p looks a strong base imho

[parob] 19/10/2018 12:30

GFH's tweet gave us another chance to buy sub 30p. There seems to be strong support around this level suggesting limited downside risk. Hopefully we will see a third attempt at recovering next week. Keeping an eye out for large blocks being taken in auctions.

[eentweedrie] 19/10/2018 11:42

nice tick up

[dave4545] 19/10/2018 11:22

Might get chased again as no quote to buy 5k. Somebody gifted 40k to the mm's at 28.2p
that will probably be worth £800-1200 more soon enough

[the big fella] 19/10/2018 11:13

Indeed GHF has been around these boards for many years and is a well respected poster. I have shared a fair few investment idea with Gordon over the years. His reason for selling is not unreasonable, especially if one has a large exposure to a number of illiquid small caps.

Clearly many are sitting on the sidelines at the moment. There is a weight of PI cash just waiting to find a home. Hopefully some of it will find a home here in time when some "green shoots" are communicated by the comapny.

[parob] 19/10/2018 11:13

My 20K kill or fill has been rejected twice! Will try again with 15K.

[trotterstrading] 19/10/2018 09:58

Agree Stimis. Tbf the share price was staging a recovery until GHF put out his bearish tweet, clearly he has a large and loyal following but that doesn't make him immune to mistakes. The uncertainty around the swift and unexplained departure of the CFO has scared off buyers for the time being, they will return as the drip drip of sellers drys up. My understanding is that if guidance is out by more than 10% the Company are obliged to issue a trading update, so no news is good news on that count.

[stemis] 19/10/2018 09:32

To be honest I'm more interested in their comment 'no change to guidance'. We are already half way through the year so things would have to take a serious downturn in H2 for the share price fall to be even remotely justified.

[thechurch333] 19/10/2018 09:13

To clarify, the “no colour” comment was specifically in response to my query as to why the new CFO was not appointed to the board. That is what makes me suspicious. I could be completely wrong, wouldn’t be the first time, but I thought it worthy of comment to Glasshalfull as he was selling down his position.

[carcosa] 19/10/2018 08:30

Pireric, good post.

Going back to the query arising from the recent twitter post and in particular the 'No Colour' statement, the phrase is a standard everyday investment terminology which you will hear in practically every analyst meeting. It is as standard as 'long', 'short'. The phrase means a request for additional details. Hence Robert Churchlow was indicating Investor Relations were unable/unwilling to explain the reasons for the CFO departure.

As for the company going back to being private then all I can say is that if the MBO want to do a buyout then they can certainly engineer that or take the company private with existing shareholders. Unfortunately I have seen such occasions over the years where they can effectively cause the share price to tumble, say there is no point in remaining listeed and that's that. Job done. Bear in mind that the CEO effectively controls 55% of the company. Furthermore 30% is owned by Golden Sun (Enter latest name version here) which online research suggests is a bit dodgy. Therefore it is not without merit that after this large acquisition trail they have been on that FFI decide to scurry away.

But will they do that? The CFO has little experience comparable to his current role but over the last 20 years or so his CV appears to be clean in the finance industry. So there are no obvious signs that he intends to be under-handed with shareholders. Furthermore the earlier profit warnings were due to understandable, although unwelcome, reasons. Further negatives may arise over problems in integrating these acquisitions as they are geographically diverse and it's all new to management. But everything has a price and at current share price there seems to me to be more risk being 'out' than being 'in'. One positive RNS has the potential to turn the share price around very quickly.

Recent weeks have shown large upturn in the daily trading volumes, undoubtably a lot is very speculative and has given rise to a volatile share price. I guess that will continue until a trading statement of the Interims (December?) are issued.

[ronwilkes123] 19/10/2018 08:05

Great post let's see what today brings

[tsmith2] 19/10/2018 00:23

this is what a call proper post.

[pireric] 18/10/2018 22:24

Hi Ron. What would you like to hear about :0) ?

From my perspective, in the inteirms, this will show bare minimum under any circumstances $8m of EBIT on my calculations. If they are less convincing on the second half, then maybe $9m to $10m in H2 and 10% below the bottom end of the guidance. If they hold the guide then all is good

But in essence, even if they miss the guide by $3m, I still think the market will send the share price up substantially because the multiple of earnings is simply ridiculous. The market is thinking earnings here will halve again, which I am confident is just laughably wide of the mark of what the worst case scenario could look like. And the market is pricing in the worst case scenario because it doesn't understand the levers of earnings here.

Will this get taken private? I don't remotely think so. The second warning clearly shows they are cleaning up their act in an industry that is frankly full of lavishes. And also, when Ransohoff wants to eventually call it quits, it's far easier to publically sell a company with proper governance and systems in place.

Bottom line, its a very illiquid stock, recent news flow doesn't make anyone want to jump up and pile in. And at such a low valuation, lots of investors second guess themselves (why can't it trade at 3x earnings?). I have no qualms that the valuation will rectify and the slightest ounce of good news around the integration or operational stability will do wonders.

[the big fella] 18/10/2018 22:00

All this speculation is pointless. If the business turn things around then we will do very well. If it doesn’t then we will lose money. Same as any other investment. Given its lowly rating the later is already priced in to a degree. Therefore it presents an attractive risk/reward investment. No more no less.

[ronwilkes123] 18/10/2018 21:13

But that is what appears to be happening imoTomorrow is another dayBe good to hear the view of pieric he has been quiet today

[stemis] 18/10/2018 20:49

If there is a big holder who wants to sell its stock then management should be presenting to other institutions (introduced by the broker) to place the stock with them, not letting the seller drip the shares into the market.

[ronwilkes123] 18/10/2018 20:04

So either a major holder is dumpingOr this has an incredible rate of churn for the free float - pis only holding 5 mins

[stemis] 18/10/2018 19:59

According to the FFI web site there are only 13,131,748 (8.36%) shares not owned by the top 10 shareholders.

[ronwilkes123] 18/10/2018 19:57

I think a lot are holding off this till at least the next update

[davr0s] 18/10/2018 19:55

So I'm a buyer of strength (not my idea but all traders who have been around 20-30years adopt this style) so was watching it at 300 (lol) but buyers never pushed it up so I passed. I personally wouldn't touch it now until/if (they don't all come back) it re-establishes an uptrend but it's a long way from doing that now as there is massive overhead supply (trapped buyers sitting at a loss). The issue is that the big holders have had a reason to sell at ever lower levels - for whatever reason which you may never know. If you buy strength and sell weakness you won't get crushed when shares tank

[ronwilkes123] 18/10/2018 19:48

Thank youDo you have a view on ffi