Fenner Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 11/11/2015 10:21

Brokers are all currently forecasting a held dividend for 2016 although cover is down to 1.02

[ali47fish] 11/11/2015 08:33

long term short investment is contradictory

[alphahunter] 11/11/2015 08:22

"However, in the light of the recent further deterioration in the US coal industry, the Board envisages that the Group is likely to achieve an outcome for the current financial year which is moderately below its previous expectations."

That's why in addition to listenning to what the coal miners say about their opex and maintenance capex, and what the other capex equipment suppliers say about their end-market, it is worth considering checking with CSX what happens to the volume of coal carried in their rail cars.

Good boring food-chain analysis linking the dots, less exciting may be than chart-reading, but nonetheless worthwhile for a long-term fundamental short investment.

[alphahunter] 24/10/2015 16:03

CWA1,

You may be right, but the Management have been quarters after quarters consistently less pessimistic than the outcome, over the last three years. To be fair, all the miners & the associated capex suppliers have been over confident in this down cycle. And the latest Q3 from the US and Scandis don't inspire confidence either.

Well done for picking up share at 150p, I never seem to manage to perfect time my entry points - whether long or short.

[cockerhoop] 22/10/2015 11:55

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[cwa1] 22/10/2015 08:34

Morning All

The downhill slide of Fenner has been pretty relentless and for understandable reasons, which is what attracted me.

I read the brief TU from 8/9 and didn't see much to get excited or worried about. But I noticed there was an investor phone in that can be listened to again.

Having listened to it, I got the impression that that things were indeed difficult with some parts of the business going well and, predictably, the oil and gas/commodities side not- but didn't seem to be getting any worse. There seemed to be a strong hint that they were "in line" and that the board were minded to maintain the divi with all other things being equal. Given the whopping divi and things being in line I decided to take a modest punt at 150 this morning in the hope, but not expectation, that things were at least on a level keel for the moment. Any sort of pick up in O & G/commodities could even leave it looking quite attractive. A guy has to dream, hasn't he?

Good fortune to holders.

[alphahunter] 16/10/2015 16:21

The beauty of FENR is that it's not a short crowded trade, unlike Ashmore or to a certain extent Serco.

Today, Liberum + Q SKF + Q SLB (read-accross WEIR) putting the whole "engenius" sector under pressure.

[alphahunter] 14/10/2015 00:16

Analysts have cut their 2016 eps forecast by 10%+ over the the last three months. Just surprised they haven't cut it a tad for 2015, given the turn business nature of the ECS and Oil widgets biz - may be non-oil AEP is doing much stronger than I understand it does.
Anyway, stock looks expensive on 2016, whether on PE after recurring restructuring costs and the not-so-casual goodwill write-downs, P/TB, EV/EBITDA, etc,...

CSX see no good for coal extended into 2016 as per their Q today.

[alphahunter] 12/10/2015 12:44

You're right,

Glencore has delivered great news for the commodity markets lately - e.g cuts in volume of production and individual mines mothballing.

Fenner provides equipment to increase capacity and volume of production. ;-)

[lauders] 11/10/2015 02:28

Still looking good. Has the bottom been reached? Commodities starting to come back into favor? FENR are not solely commodities focused either. They will survive longterm on their medical side and a recovery in commodities will only do well for the company. In the meantime there is a nice dividend to collect. Just my opinion. In for the longterm on this one so will just stick it out here.

[hvs] 28/9/2015 17:16

ANALYSTS always work in the dar.

They likes the ANAL

[hvs] 28/9/2015 17:16

ANALYSTS always work in the dar.

They likes the ANAL

[bugle4] 26/9/2015 20:46

Fenner plc (LON:FENR)‘s stock had its “buy” rating restated by equities researchers at Jefferies Group in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday, Marketbeat.com reports. They currently have a GBX 200 ($3.11) price target on the stock. Jefferies Group’s price target suggests a potential upside of 20.85% from the company’s previous close.

[dlku] 24/9/2015 17:17

Catapillar warn and cut jobs

short fenr

[mike740] 18/9/2015 14:52

18 Sep 2015 Fenner PLC FENR Panmure Gordon Sell 164.25 170.00 125.00 125.00 Reiterates

SP Target 125p

[alphahunter] 18/9/2015 14:31

GS's cutting targets on whole range of mining capex stocks today.
FENR not covered by GS.

[hvs] 14/9/2015 17:24

lol !!!!!!!

Halved ??????

Zee banks are knocking on the door.

Highly dilutive RIGHTS ISSUE soon.

And then BONUSES all round.

[bugle4] 14/9/2015 17:11

Not sure the divi will/can/could be maintained (it's only covered 1.9 times and couldn't be covered with expected EPS) but even if it was halved it'll still be a yield of 3.5%.

NAI DYOR

[hvs] 14/9/2015 16:27

lol !!!!!

lol !!!!!!!!!!

Certainly, the year’s results are not due to be pretty, with net profit expected to fall by 34%. And, looking ahead to next year, a further fall of 21% is being anticipated. But, with a forward P/E ratio which takes both of these falls into account of just 14.1, Fenner appears to offer a wide margin of safety, as well as a superb yield of 6.8%.

lol !!!!!!!

I lOVES the divi , lol !!!!!!!

Zee bank is soon coming knocking on the door.

[bouleversee] 12/9/2015 14:36

Meijiman - I also hold Topps Tiles which have done well; have held for quite a long while. Made the mistake of top slicing at a previous high and not buying back when low. Also did well out of Greggs. I've had it with the big names. Have held Fenner for quite a while. It would be nice to see them recover but I'm not holding my breath and at this moment am not tempted to buy more.

[shaws67] 12/9/2015 10:44

Yesterday fenner price fell to 170.50p Close enough to the support i was thinking, could be ready for an up day on Monday.

Im not in the share as yet, hope to be soon, i'm concentrating on tommy crook just now.


GLA

[meijiman] 12/9/2015 09:15

Getting it right this year has definitely been about getting the sector . My best have probably been Topps T and BOO-in on both near the low for the year. Oil and mining still a disaster zone.