Fenner Share Discussion Threads

[meijiman] 12/3/2015 08:44

Its not all gloom. You could almost argue for a re-rating on the back of higher quality earnings from AEP which as a stand alone would command a higher multiple than conveyor belting which is stuffed until replacement/new belt spending picks up. Meanwhile the divi limits the downside.

[steveo18] 12/3/2015 08:35

oil bit is probably going to deliver a profit warning here

[cockneyrebel] 12/3/2015 08:27

6.4% yield here now.

12p divi well covered by circa 18-19p eps.

All imo/dyor etc

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/3/2015 07:53

Advanced Engineering Products now over 60% of the business.

Just a modest miss - was the market expecting a bigger miss?

A 5%+ yield well covered here.

Starting to look attractive with so much of the earnings coming from AEP now imo.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[tradermel] 12/3/2015 07:46

But not with comments like this in the RNS I suggest

"As a consequence of the above, the Group anticipates achieving underlying earnings per share for the year moderately below expectations."

[cockneyrebel] 03/3/2015 14:14

Chart turning up here?

Recent acquisition looked a good deal imo:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[alphahunter] 03/3/2015 10:51

Glencore's capex plan is giving a boost to FENR today.
Yesterday's BoAML downgrade of Joy to sell had no impact on the latter price.

Risk-taking is coming back in the sector it seems.
FENR up 2.9% at 225p.

[alphahunter] 26/2/2015 14:57

Hi Mazarin

Yes technicals are behind this one. Valuation is uninspiring but a catch-up is due relative to the big players. I'm not a holder and would look to short at a higher level.

I punted a long position In Titan International yesterday at $9.40, AG/Mining wheels & mining tyres (think of GKN Land systems for the wheels, Michelin for the AG/Mining tyres)

Huge miss (> -20% !) on the revenue and eps for Q4 today, the stock is up 7% as I write with 12% of stock on loan. My point is that mining equipment stocks have strong technical factors to support them at the moment.

GL
Loved Wolf Hall.

[mazarin] 19/2/2015 00:45

Since end of Jan 15 it has been doing pretty well from where I'm standing.

[speedsgh] 18/2/2015 17:06

THORPEMATT - thanks for taking the time to respond.

[thorpematt] 18/2/2015 14:43

speedsgh
I am not convinced profits will decline but that said much depends upon global economics.
I didn't consider that things would get much worse if we looked 2years down the line.
FENR has great record on divi growth and in the past has paid out higher ratios than now so I think it will avoid a cut.

In fairness I did a fair valuation claculation yesterday which said 224p. Of course should mining sector etc. look bullish that would be upgraded pretty quickly and so would FENR earnings.

[meijiman] 18/2/2015 12:18

yes probably. coal and iron ore prices have risen sharply in the last couple of days.Whether that will help sales of belting remains to be seen.

[cockneyrebel] 18/2/2015 11:58

Chart bottom?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[stevieweebie2] 13/2/2015 10:12

c'mon breakout.

[dmf] 12/2/2015 10:36

heading north again !

[dmf] 11/2/2015 14:32

I would not be too concerned - the share price does 'bounce' around !

[alphahunter] 11/2/2015 14:16

Damn it, it's going South again and I don't have a short in place.

[speedsgh] 11/2/2015 14:00

Useful write up here -

[speedsgh] 11/2/2015 13:59

Useful write up here -

[alphahunter] 06/2/2015 11:39

I'm on the opposite side.
I'm waiting for the technicals to drive the share price up and get some momentum players in, before shorting it again on fundamentals. Timing is essential.
Have had another look at the numbers, can't understand why the analysts use the adjusted rather than reported numbers as the company is facing structural headwinds in ECS, not just exceptional: annual goodwill impairment and restructuring cost are here to stay. Last, the dividend is barely covered on a free cash flow basis.

More news yesterday from another big US player.

As I said, I'm waiting for MACD, RSI, Break-Out, Resistance Level watchers to start shouting BUY here or elsewhere before I reconsider a short position.

GLA

[meijiman] 05/2/2015 17:30

I'm not going to argue with you on that point mazarin -anyway quite apposite in the circumstances. Onward and maybe upward..

[mazarin] 05/2/2015 17:09

Another good day following a shaky start, closing well into positive territory.
As for the quote, I believe its origins derive from Aristotle's 'Nicomachean Ethics'. No matter what, as long as it helps the s.p.

[meijiman] 05/2/2015 14:10

Interesting -not sure about the mild weather -certainly since Xmas its been bitter in the eastern seaboard States.Pricing pressures will certainly drive potential consolidation among the domestic coal producers,indeed it is already starting. Should have spun my Fenner out at 480p but for some reason sat and watched them fall to below 200p. Guess that partly reflects my erroneous view that earnings would hold up better.

[alphahunter] 05/2/2015 13:27

True, it has been a big mystery this replacement / resillience order flow put forward by the Management.

Technicals says : Screaming Buy => RSI-Oversold Divergence RSI/Price.


Fundamentals says: more bad news to come, analysts behind the curve



"Market Trends

Arch estimates that coal maintained approximately 40 percent of the U.S. power generation market in 2014. With a mild start to winter, domestic coal consumption ended the year roughly flat, resulting in coal stockpiles at U.S. generators of 145 million tons, a level on par with year-end 2013. On a regional basis, PRB-served power plants ended the year with an estimated 60 days of supply – 8 percent lower than the regional, year-end average.

For 2015, Arch expects domestic market fundamentals to remain challenging due to the impact of mild winter weather on coal consumption and natural gas pricing and inventories. In addition, new regulations slated to take effect during the year could impact up to 25 million tons of annualized gross coal demand. In light of these developments, Arch expects declines in domestic coal use of 50 million to 60 million tons for 2015, and projects that a meaningful amount of uneconomic production will rationalize. Internal estimates suggest that along with other basins declining, Central Appalachia output will fall to an unprecedented 100 million tons in 2015.
"
Russian Coal now more cost-effective than US.


and possibly

[meijiman] 05/2/2015 09:20

Ru sure it was Aristotle? Biggest disappointment for me with this share is that the repeat order book for replacement belting has not given resilience to earnings. Got to assume the margins on new installation are massively higher than for replacement belting when it has worn out.So much has improved in this company over say the past 10 years, but for the stockmarket its just the same old. Bit of a shame for the excellent (ex)FD to leave on such a downbeat note.