Falk IS. Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[roscopc] 28/9/2005 14:32

Just drfting lower on no excitement. Need to get some more cash together to start buying around the current price. This is a stock to buy and keep for a good while. I'm looking to get a SIPP, transfer out some assets from old Pensions that were with some companies I worked for in the past and putting these in it.

[grgkecer] 21/9/2005 07:26

Time Right for Falklands Oil Prospectors?

[grgkecer] 14/9/2005 13:16

Good Results Encourage FOGL To Extend Its 2D Seismic Shoot Off The Falkland Islands

[ccorton] 08/9/2005 22:33

I agree that the share price is about right. Hence, not planning to buy unless it drops further.

[britishbear] 07/9/2005 14:55

Fair comment - still, FKL is currently trading above NAV (note that this takes into account what FOGL and FKML are in at book price).

SP is probably about right given the risks. Upside is stil a lot greater than downside from here. Only needs DES or one of the other companies in the area to strike and FKL will fly.

[ccorton] 07/9/2005 14:02

UPDATED (PROPERLY) FROM 8 JULY

FKL has 8.33million shares in issue. At the present sharepice of 400p this gives a market cap. of £33.2mil.

There are two potential upsides aside from the speculative invesments in FOGL (16.8mill@119p = £20million) and FGML (11.25mill shares @23p =£2.6million):

(1) Contribution of PHFC
(2) Extra business generated by commodity exploration in the Falklands

However, neither of these two effects seem likely to dominate given the huge contribution of the FOGL holdings to FKL's market cap.

If we assume that FKL will make a post-tax profit of 1m in the next financial year (a little optimistic) and assume that it should return 4.5% on its market cap. We can infer a fair value market cap of: £22.2million [ie. (1m/4.5)*100)]

Assume that FGML will get nowhere and should be valued at present value of 2.6million

FKL market cap = 22.2+2.6 = 24.8 [ie Share price of 297p]

This would suggest that the FOGL holding is presently valued at: 33.2-24.8 = £8.4 million - or well less than half price!!!

If the FOGL holding was valued at its present market value of £20million then the FKL share price should be: 540p

Conclusion: if you are excited about FOGL (or FGML) then buy this share. Also, the downside to the failure of both these enterprises appears to be only around 33% on the current price. However, I still don't own - exploration is a slow business and interest in FKL might still fade further (+ I don't have any spare cash).

[dutch dexter] 23/8/2005 21:02

Well, it's a long-term play anyway, as far as i'm concerned. The real price spike won't happen until oil is found by one of the exploration companies around the Falkland Islands. I see no reason to sell until then. And even then i might hold on to some of the shares for a much longer time, for i believe the local economy will see an incredible boost for many years to come with all the oil revenues. Potentially, all the inhabitants will be multi-millionaires. Just imagine what that would do to the share price of FKL. The only question is: will oil be found (in good quantities)?

[grgkecer] 23/8/2005 10:37

Not that much German. Seems a typically thorough account - but it is a year old, and a lot has changed since then. This does not necessarily mean his opinion is wrong.

[dutch dexter] 23/8/2005 02:03

I don't know if any of you can read German, but i found this studie by Swen Lorenz. It's old (13 August 2004) but interesting (though damn long). Some nice images of the Falkland Islands too. Anyway, he thinks FIH is one of the best shares you can own for the years to come at this in his opinion very low share price Huge potential.

[energyi] 26/7/2005 10:36

Eyeballing the chart only...
looks like it wants to fall back to 340p or so

[britishbear] 26/7/2005 10:26

A good board appointment today imo. Ferry business is a nice cash generator.

Still think FKL is cheap at these prices. FKL and FOGL account for a lot of the market cap and teh ferries are a good profitable company.

Also a good move selling off the travel company. Good strategic move.

[grgkecer] 26/7/2005 09:33

Next acqisition on, or serving, IoW then? (With NOP drilling to start shortly, it could be an oil producer before the Falkland Islands.)

[waldron] 25/7/2005 12:27

LONDON (AFX) - Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its trading in the first
quarter of the year was in line with expectations, and maintained a positive
outlook on the year to come.
The group said it continues to be cash generative and recently negotiated an
increase in its working capital facilities to give additional flexibility,
including a rise in overdraft facilities from 800,000 stg to 2 mln stg.
Chairman David Hudd said: "We are well positioned to take advantage of
increased economic activity related to exploration both by our associated
companies and others which are active in the Falklands."
He added that the company was looking to grow through further acquisitions
in the near future.
har

[britishbear] 11/7/2005 22:05

:-)

You have to try.....amazing that I actually believe it. If it was not for those spesky squid all would be green in the garden.

[ccorton] 11/7/2005 21:54

I like the way that positive comment on this BB can move the share price.

[britishbear] 11/7/2005 13:05

Agree with CRATE - FOGL are only one of many firms drilling for oil. DES, Hardman etc. If any strike you can bet land prices and hotel room prices will rocket on the Falklands and given FKL own 1/2 the island it will have a near monopoly and these oil bods will be more than willing to pay top dollar.

[crate] 11/7/2005 12:24

FKL is only a means to getting an alround exposure to the Falklands with a limited risk. At least if all the resources schemes come to nothing I'll be left with something!

[ccorton] 11/7/2005 12:20

Then the issue is how much hype is there in the FOGL price? From the looks of things we won't get make or break results until 2007 at the earliest which suggests that there is a lot of time within which enthusiasm could wane and prices could slip.

[ccorton] 11/7/2005 12:17

Perhaps "FOGL at a 30% discount" is a more appropriate characterisation - particularly after accounting for directors options and measurement error.

[britishbear] 09/7/2005 15:06

cc - excellent post that fits well with my figures and thinking.

Only the conclusion is different. I buy FKL instead of FOGL as the downside is limited whereas the upside will follow FOGL. Buying FOGL straight it therefore a higher risk. A little exposure to gold is also thrown in.

You said it yourself, buy FKL and get FOGL half price - not a bad deal at all.

[ccorton] 08/7/2005 16:55

FKL has 8.33million shares in issue. At the present sharepice of 450p this gives a market cap. of 37.5million.

There are two potential upsides aside from the speculative invesments in FOGL (value around 20million) and FGML (value around 3.5million):

(1) Contribution of PHFC
(2) Extra business generated by commodity exploration in the Falklands

However, neither of these effects seem likely to dominate given the huge contribution of the FOGL holdings to FKL's market cap.

If we assume that FKL will make a post-tax profit of 1m in the next financial year (a little optimistic) and assume that it should return 4.5% on its market cap. We can infer a fair value market cap of: 22.2million [ie. (1m/4.5)*100)]

Assume that FGML will get nowhere and should be valued at present value of 3.5million

FKL market cap = 22.2+3.5 = 25.7 [ie Share price of 308p]

This would suggest that the FOGL holding is presently valued at: 37.5-25.7 = 11.8million - or around half price.

If the FOGL holding was valued at its present market value of 20million then the FKL share price should be: 550p

Conclusion: if you are excited about FOGL (or FGML) then buy this share. Otherwise don't bother. The Portsmouth Ferry Company and other traditional FKL business provides a floor to the share price but essentially if FOGL goes down then so will this share. I for one am not touching this share until I have got a better handle on FOGL - and the Directors are sitting pretty with options that are worth a mint!

[grgkecer] 08/7/2005 09:42

Of FKL's turnover, PHFC contributed for 16 weeks £1.3M; and about 20% of the profit before tax and goodwill amortization.

[roscopc] 08/7/2005 09:13

I thought that was a bit odd. Have PHFC released accounts since the March figure and therefore would only be included fully this year?

Answered my own qwuestion - went to companies house and picked up the accounts for Portsmouth Harbour and Ferry company for £1. Shows a Profit of £774k

64Bit, what figures were you looking at?