Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[jjmills56] 03/9/2021 10:43

TSX - what is that and who are these knowledgeable folk? I think they'll like what they read this am if they're as perceptive as you say

[kevinroe] 03/9/2021 10:39

U lucky mofos

[amrishbhim] 03/9/2021 10:37

A positive re-rate and price from brokers at least 37p

[s34icknote] 03/9/2021 10:16

Get the feeling the retraces are getting bought into

[mirabeau] 03/9/2021 09:58

UJ9

Sorry mate but compared to Beetaloo he pales into absolute insignificance

[ultimatejustice9] 03/9/2021 09:55

Angs next , pure natural gas play

[s34icknote] 03/9/2021 09:47

Just spiked

[s34icknote] 03/9/2021 09:31

Some times markets overlook the obvious Look at gkp at moment.

[mr hangman] 03/9/2021 09:26

Will be interesting to see what happens when the TSX opens,They have a better understanding of these things, more to the point how big this is

[oilbuy] 03/9/2021 09:23

Well done Peter. Never gave in.

[s34icknote] 03/9/2021 09:03

Had a nibble Trades these 6 p to 18 p a few years ago

[mirabeau] 03/9/2021 08:45

OIS

My pleasure

[p@] 03/9/2021 08:43

Construction work complete on Northern Gas Pipeline between Tennant Creek and Mt Isa, gas set to flow

July 20, 2018


“The amount of gas in the Beetaloo Basin in particular is of such a magnitude that not only could it supply the Northern Territory with all of its foreseeable needs, but it could also provide the east coast with enough gas to make a real dent, if not completely alleviate the current supply problems we now have on the east coast,” he said."

Looks big news to me!

[kevinroe] 03/9/2021 08:21

Price falling slowly big seller out there

[kevinroe] 03/9/2021 08:17

Did you pluck 37p out of thin airb

[ohisay] 03/9/2021 07:43

Excellent news and price target of 37p ..whats not to like..!

Update ..And I've just added 100k.

[hermana3] 03/9/2021 07:41

Wee Joe Nally of Cenkos is overjoyed and with luck the market will be too...

[mirabeau] 03/9/2021 07:34

Cenkos take : 'Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd : A Gamechanger'

Falcon has announced a fivefold increase in the normalised gas flow rate from the Velkerri B Shale at the Amungee NW-1H well, providing a firm line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo. Production log data from the Amungee NW-1H well has confirmed that 85-95% of production has come from just a 200m horizontal section, equating to a normalised flow rate of 5.2-5.8MMScf/d over a 1,000m section. These test results significantly exceed the expected commercial threshold of 2.0MMscf/d over a 1,000m section and puts the Beetaloo on a par with other shale gas basins in North America. We set our price target in-line with our valuation of the Beetaloo plus corporate costs at 37p, c7.5x the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

A Gamechanger for Falcon – A production log test at the Amungee NW-1H well has indicated a fivefold increase in the normalised gas flow rate of between 5.2-5.8MMscf/d at the Amungee well, compared to the previously reported flow rate of 1.1MMscf/d. The data confirmed that only 5-15% of production is coming from the stages beyond a casing deformation point, with 85-95% of production coming from a 200m horizontal section, prior to the casing deformation. The low contribution beyond the casing deformation is likely the result of a restriction caused by the casing deformation itself or the plugs having not been milled out. The conclusion is that the 200m horizontal section prior to the casing deformation may be representative of the deliverability of the Middle Velkerri B Shale at Amungee, resulting in a normalised gas flow rate of between 5.2-5.8MMscf/d over a 1,000m horizontal section – comparable with other shale gas basins in North America


Establishing Commerciality – The key uncertainty to kick starting a shale gas industry in the Northern Territory is understanding whether the shales can release a commercial flow rate. An independent third-party report has concluded that the commerciality of the Beetaloo would be demonstrated by gas flows greater than 3MMscf/d from a 1,000m well, whilst a recent industry estimate suggest that gas flows greater than 2MMscf/d from a 1,000m well are required to demonstrate the commerciality of the Beetaloo. Either way, at 5.25.8MMscf/d, the PLT test result significantly exceeds this commercial threshold. In the same independent report, it was also concluded that it would take just a single well to achieve a commercial flow threshold (as success can be replicated across the uniform Beetaloo basin) to confirm the expectation that a large scale development is commercially viable. We expect the commercial potential of the Velkerri Shale to be further confirmed in late 2021 following the test results of the Tanumbirini-2H and 3H wells, 100km to the east of the Amungee NW-1H discovery. ? De-Risking the Velkerri Dry Gas Play – c100km to the east of the Amungee NW-1H discovery, Santos and Tamboran Resources have completed the drilling of the Tanumbirini-2H well to a total depth of 4,598m, including a 1,000m lateral section within the Middle Velkerri B shale. The results to date have been encouraging with the Tanumbirini-2H well encountering significant gas shows and pressures. Natural fractures, strong pressures and gas flows during drilling are typically indicative of a shale that will respond positively to fracture stimulation. The Easternwell 106 rig has now commenced drilling the Tanumbirini-3H well. Following the completion of Tanumbirini-3H, both wells will then be re-entered, fracture stimulated, and flow tested with results expected to be announced prior to the end of 2021. The aim of the drilling programme is to establish commercial flow rates from the Velkerri dry gas play – the same play where Origin/Falcon discovered 6.6Tcf of gross contingent 2C resources as a result of the successful Amungee NW-1H well 2016 extended production test (EPT). The 6.6Tcf of 2C resources only covers an area of 1,968km2, immediately surrounding the Amungee NW-1H well, with any success by Santos/Tamboran likely to extend the Velkerri B shale dry gas play fairway c100km to the east.

Falcon and Origin will now analyse the results to determine the next phase of work on the Middle Velkerri B Shale.

And this about MONETISATION which should please Mr Market -

Rebounding Gas Prices – Following the fall in domestic and international gas prices in 2020 as a result of COVID-19 related demand reductions, gas prices have increased significantly in 2021. Subject to the successful commercialisation of the Beetaloo, Falcon is well positioned to monetise these resources that could supply affordable gas to meet predicted Australian gas shortfalls and provide back-fill gas to Australian LNG to help satisfy the material demand for natural gas from South East Asia. ? Domestic: Despite a lack of domestic demand growth, natural gas prices have remained high in Australia relative to other OECD countries due to a shortage of identifiable domestic natural gas to fully utilise existing LNG capacity and to meet projected domestic energy needs. The situation is most acute in the eastern part of Australia where large populace areas exist, and traditional sources of natural gas production are maturing, and where Falcon’s assets position the Company to meet these projected domestic energy needs. The current domestic spot price is A$9.7/Gj (US$7.3/MMBtu), c2x the current U.S. natural gas price.

Production from existing and committed developments is projected to decline rapidly over the coming years, with consumer demand expected to outstrip domestic supply in 2026. To meet winter demands, supply from outside the east coast will need to be relied upon unless new local supplies or LNG import terminals are developed.

International: LNG markets have rebounded strongly from the low COVID-19 levels experienced in 2020, reflecting tightening supply and demand dynamics. The LNG market is also benefitting from short-term market tightness driven by severe Northern Hemisphere winter and supply bottlenecks. Asian LNG demand is forecast to increase substantially over the next 30 years. Even in the “worst case” scenario, Asian LNG demand will double in the next 15 years to 32Tcfe per annum.

[mirabeau] 03/9/2021 07:06

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. -

Amungee Nw-1H - Normalised Gas Flow Rate Equivalent To 5 Mmscf/D Per 1,000m Horizontal

03/09/2021 7:00am

UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

Falcon Oil & Gas (LSE:FOG)


Friday 3 September 2021

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

("Falcon")

Amungee NW-1H - Normalised Gas Flow Rate Equivalent to 5 MMscf/d per 1,000m Horizontal

3 September 2021 - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) is pleased to provide results of the production log test at the Amungee NW-1H well ("Amungee"). The results suggest a normalised gas flow rate equivalent of between 5.2-5.8 MMscf/d per 1,000m of horizontal section.

Amungee is located in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, Northern Territory, Australia and the testing conducted is part of the 2021 work programme which is operated by Falcon's joint venture partner, Origin Energy B2 Pty Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin Energy Limited ("Origin").

Amungee Background

-- Located in Exploration Permit 98, approximately 60 kilometres east of
Daly Waters, just south of the Carpentaria Highway.

-- It was the first horizontal well to be drilled and first well to be
fracked with Falcon's JV partner and operator, Origin.

-- In November 2015, the JV successfully drilled the well to a total
measured depth of 3,808m, including a 1,100m horizontal section.

-- In September 2016, 11 hydraulic stimulation stages were completed along
the horizontal section in the Middle Velkerri B shale zone.

-- In December 2016, a 57-day extended production test ("EPT") was completed,
with production averaging 1.10 MMscf/d.

-- In February 2017, the Results of Evaluation of the Discovery and
Preliminary Estimate of Petroleum in Place were published for the
Velkerri B Shale Gas Pool, confirming a gross contingent resource of 6.6
TCF, 1.46 TCF net to Falcon, full details are contained in Falcon's AIF.

Details of Amungee Testing

-- The well was successfully put back on production testing on 7 August
2021.

-- Initial flow rates during the first 48 hours of testing ranged between 2
- 4 MMscf/d with rates averaging 1.23 MMscf/d over the first 23 days.

-- A PLT was run on 19 August 2021 to 3,098mMD, just prior to the casing
deformation at 3,112mMD.

-- The PLT data confirms that:

-- Only 5-15% of the production came from stages 1-7 beyond the
casing deformation point at 3,112 mMD.

-- 85-95 % of the production came from stages 8-11 spanning a 200m
horizontal section, prior to the casing deformation.

-- The low contribution from stages 1-7 is likely the result of a
restriction caused by the casing deformation or the plugs having not
milled out, or both.

-- Conclusion: stages 8-11 may be representative of the deliverability that
can be achieved within the Middle Velkerri B Shale at Amungee.

-- The PLT test results equate to a normalised gas flow rate of between
5.2-5.8 MMscf/d per 1,000m of horizontal section.

-- A typical future production well would be likely to have a horizontal
production section up to three kilometres.

-- The result validates the decision to undertake a second EPT in order to
run a PLT.

Philip O'Quigley (CEO of Falcon) commented:

"With our unique and extensive position in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, this is really exciting news for Falcon shareholders and this significant development provides line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo, for which we remain carried for further activity.

A recent report by an industry analyst suggests that gas flows greater than 3MMscf/d from a 1,000m horizontal well are required to demonstrate the commerciality of the Beetaloo. Not only does this test result significantly exceed these parameters and significantly increase our assessment of the Velkerri dry gas play, but it also puts the Beetaloo on a par with other shale gas basins in North America.

While we wait for further news from our operations at Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 and Velkerri 76 S2-1, we look forward to working with our JV partner, Origin, in establishing the next phase of work on the Middle Velkerri B Shale.

With other drilling activity in neighbouring Santos-operated blocks targeting the Velkerri dry gas play, this is an important moment for the nationally significant Beetaloo Sub-basin."

[hermana3] 27/8/2021 19:05

We need sound financials to underpin drilling. Seen a few go under awaiting success with the drillbit. Market happy enough too.