January box office numbers are in, confirming it's up 10% YoY.
This seems like a straight overperform as well with the likes of Nosferatu, Mufasa and Complete Unknown just generally being better movies and better received than last year's titles. I think the industry projections were mainly based on the writers strike ending and the calendar being better spread out.
February, the summer holidays and winter 2025 are guaranteed to be gangbusters for the cinema industry. Could potentially be up 20% if the hype about Bridget Jones presales is real. Now just need some under the radar hits to emerge in early Spring and late Summer as that's the only time of year where it's not obvious where the big revenues are coming from. |
Topping up here in Everyman looks like it's pretty much hit it's low. |
...and if you think cinema stocks are on the downturn. Take a look at Cinemark Holdings in the States which is up 108% in the last year. Wonder if they are looking to grow as well, as they operate in multiple countries. |
Can see why this has dipped but its exceptional value in the long term. The film slate for 2025 is excellent but 2026 is completely insane with multiple Disney films, Avengers, Star Wars, Nolan, Spielberg films and plenty of guaranteed box office crowd pleasers. Talk of numbers getting closer to 2018 levels when EMAN was @264 not 37. I think Canaccord new target price of 160 seems plenty fair, if they can keep opening cinemas for 2026 and continue growing market share. |
Everyman is very vulnerable to a private equity bid at such low levels. Share price falls on small trading blip rather than anything fundamental. |
Share price now massively oversild |
I would broadly agree with that, they need to get net debt down to c.£10m though IMO while ensuring cinemas are up to date. I've always wondered who much more they could do "out of normal hours" i.e. during the week mid-day for elderly, schools, mums & bumps/kids etc etc.... |
£46m equity & £18m debt which they want to "materially reduce over 2 years"
£16m EBITDA, with softening spend in market, BUT, 2023/4 year was impacted materially by writers' strike, so is £16m EBITDA the base case or is it slightly lower as they have not given a profit warning per se, just that there has been a softening in the market spend by families.
So is this a flip from debt into equity "play" over the next 2 years & if equity remains at these levels will a p/e firm take it out or a competitor?
DYOR |
Oh dear. 30p open? |
There we are. Shows what a terrible investor I am! |
"As a consequence of increased uncertainty arising from the Autumn statement, the Board is more cautious around the outlook for 2025 and 2026." |
Everyman tipped today in UK Investor Magazine. Indicates target price of £1.80 which I feel still undervalues the quality of this business and the |
After a long period when cinema has been an unfashionable sector I think we should prepare for some impressive figures at the end of this year. The busiest ever Thanksgiving weekend for cinemas in the US reads across to the UK where attendances for Moana 2, Wicked, Gladiator 2 and Paddington have been extremely impressive. Everyman may be one of those stocks where 6 months from now everyone is saying it was obvious that it was undervalued
I hold. DYOR etc |
Loungers have received a bid from Fortress. I'm wondering how long before Private Equity makes a play for Everyman with the shares being highly undervalued.
I'm surprised they never made an offer for Curzon although some of the locations were great maybe the capex to turn then around to our standard put them off?? |
The focus is now on reducing debt and Everyman is set for bumper trading with some massive releases in the second half. I personally think Everyman is a great quality leisure stock and happy to hold such a premium business. I personally think the management are missing a trick by rolling out a franchise model for the international market USA, Australia, Canada etc. Expansion by a capital light model could catapult the company into another League. |
Yep. Looks like this will drift back to new lows in the absence of interest from PIs and lacklustre figures - unless and until PE takes them out |
So many big adjustments to EBITDA.
It's dizzying....
At an Operating level, losses deteriorated from a loss of £1.61m to a loss of £1.77m.
PBT deteriorated from a loss of £4.3m to a loss of £4.9m.
NET ASSETS/SHAREHOLDER EQUITY decreased from £42.5m to £41.1m.
all imo. dyor.
qp |
Decent update IMO....would have liked to have seen a better drop through to EBITDA, but H2 should be stronger from what they have said and obviously keen to get Net Debt down from the £25m it currently is which is no bad thing IMO.....should be more than possible with a large H2, still leaving this on a ridiculously low EV/EBITDA ratio IMO....
DYOR |
agreed, perhaps we should all email the Board and suggest! |
Surprised these guys don't offer shareholder perks for my London colleagues Everyman is at the "Institution status level", they think it's amazing.
Surely with such loyal customers a few shareholder perks might rev up the share price, and get even more people in the door. |
is that a small buy at 65.5? Looks odd? views? DYOR |
haha, jinxed it....only joking, I think it is an "unknown" stock in many ways, so little volume, hence the last few days trading has been interesting ahead of the next update. DYOR |
Spoke too soon! |
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